Friday, December 31, 2010

Wish You all a Happy & Profitable New Year

Year 2010 ends with Nifty @ 6135


Today(Friday the December 31,2010)being the last day of the year 2010, Nifty moved in a moderate range 6104 - 6147 and closed at 6135. Exceptional Friday Effect, that usually lifts Nifty 50 to 100 points was missing today. As high was limited to top of P(6154) and yesterday's closing was 6102, Exceptional Friday Effect can take place only if Nifty moves to negative territory in the morning which didn't happen. So, the anticipated selling opportunity was also missing. Any way, every thing that happened during the year that ends today is good. Let us see what is store in for the next year.

Thursday, December 30, 2010

Nifty closes at 6100 level


Today(30-12-10)opened at 6074 with a gain of 14 points, moved in the narrow range 6062 - 6088 till 14.10, quickly moved to 6106 and closed at 6102 with a gain of 42 points. Nifty futures range was 6068 - 6106. Tomorrow being last day of the year and an exceptional Friday, beware of an up move of minimum 50 points and it may not go above top of P(6154).Tomorrow's Agni level is at 6078 and exit longs if Nifty slides below Agni level.

Wednesday, December 29, 2010

Nifty closes at 6060 , above Agni level


Today(29-12-10) Nifty opened at 6018 with a gain of 22 points, moved in the range 6003 - 6031 up to 12.00, steadily moved up there after to 6068 and closed at 6060 with a gain of 64 points. Today Nifty broke the narrow range to move towards 6072. As tomorrow's is the F&O settlement day, high volatility is expected. Today's Nifty futures range was 6015 - 6075. Tomorrow's Agni level is at 6043.

Tuesday, December 28, 2010

Narrow range movement & Nifty closing sub 6000


Today(28-12-10)Nifty opened at 6011 with a gain of 13 points, moved in the narrow range 5982 - 6005 and closed flat at 5996 with a loss of 2 points. Nifty futures range was 5997 - 6028. Tomorrow's Agni level is at 6009.
Last two day's Nifty movement affirms the view expressed on Sunday. Expect some fire works on last day of the year, Friday the 31st December, 2010 - an Exceptional Friday.

Monday, December 27, 2010

Nifty closes below 6000 again


Today(27-12-10)Nifty opened at 6035 with a gain of 23 points, moved up to 6045, steadily moved down to 5991 and closed at 5998 with a loss of 14 points. Nifty futures range was 6005 - 6063. Tomorrow's Agni level is at 6015 and avoid longs unless Nifty moves above Agni level.

Sunday, December 26, 2010

Nifty above 6000 for Christmas


On last Friday(24-12-10)Nifty closed at 6012 with a gain of 32 points and supported the celebration mood of Christmas. Though Nifty opened at 5940 with a loss of 40 points, by noon it recovered all losses and moved to positive territory and reached a high of 6017 before closing at 6012. Nifty futures range was 5966 - 6042. Agni level for Monday is at 6032.

Coming week being the last week of 2010, Nifty may be highly volatile and may move towards 6072(Ni) & top of P(6154). During the closing of this calendar year negative factors such as severe cold wave in European countries and consequent disruption in air traffic as also crude oil price rise, North - South Korean boarder tension and exorbitant price hike in food items in our country are prominent than positive factors such as very encouraging advance tax figures and GDP growth. Net effect may be a muted advance in Nifty.

Friday, December 24, 2010

Thursday, December 23, 2010

Nifty closes flat after moving in a narrow range


Today(23-12-10)Nifty opened at 6006 with a gain of 22 points, moved in the narrow range 5965 - 6006 and closed flat at 5980. Nifty futures range was 5981 - 6012, having a difference of 31 points only. Tomorrow's Agni level is at 6013. Last two days there wasn't much movement in Nifty, may be top FII executives have already left for celebrating Christmas with their kith and kins.

Wednesday, December 22, 2010

Nifty closes below Agni level


Today(22-12-10)Nifty opened at 6019 with a gain of 18 points, moved in the narrow range 6002 - 6024 up to 13.30, declined to 5960 and closed at 5984 with a loss of 17 points. Today's Nifty futures range was 5977 - 6043. As Nifty closing is below Agni level(5989) and tomorrow's Agni level is at 6015, Nifty is weak unless it moves above 6015.

Tuesday, December 21, 2010

Nifty closes above 6000


Defying the general pattern of decline on full moon days, today(21-12-10) Nifty remained in positive zone and closed at 6001 with a gain of 54 points. Today's Nifty range was 5960 - 6007, where as Nifty futures range was 5971 - 6022. As today's closing is above the Agni level(5979)expect further up move tomorrow. Above 6072 Nifty may move to top of P(6154). Tomorrow's Agni level is at 5989.

Monday, December 20, 2010

Nifty again closes at centre of P(5952)


Today(20-12-10)Nifty opened at 5914 with a loss of 35 points, moved down to 5900, steadily moved up to 5975(today's Agni level was 5971), declined to 5935 and closed at 5947 with a loss of 2 points, again at the centre of P(5952). Nifty futures range was 5900 - 6000. Tomorrow's Agni level is at 5979.

Sunday, December 19, 2010

Grahanila(planetary positions) on Full Moon day

Next Full Moon is on 21st December, 2010 and Grahanila(planetary positions)on that day is given below. Full Moon days are generally associated with a down move in Nifty.

Sun,Mars,Mercury&Rahu in Sagiturus, Jupiter in Pisces, Moon & Ketu in Gemini(180° to Sagiturus), Saturn in Virgo and Venus in Libra. When Moon is in the same house that of Rahu or Ketu on a full moon day, then there will be a Lunar Eclipse and a Lunar Eclipse takes place on 21st December, 2010. But it is not visible in India.

Business Line dated 21st December,2010:- Lunar eclipse coincides with winter solstice after 372 years! . The last time the two astronomical events coincided was on December 21, 1638. A solstice is an astronomical event which happens twice each year, when the tilt of the Earth's axis most inclined toward or away from the Sun, causing Sun's apparent position in the sky to reach its northernmost or southernmost extreme. On the day of winter solstice, North Pole points directly away from the Sun resulting shortest day in the Northern Hemisphere. As total lunar eclipse is taking place at 13.47 p.m. I.S.T. (day time)and it is on other side of earth it is not visible in India.

Thursday, December 16, 2010

Nifty closes at centre of P(5952) again


Today(16-12-10)Nifty opened at 5881 with a loss of 11 points, moved in the range (+ or - ) 20 till 12.30, moved down to 5855(13.10), surged upwards from 5855 to 5956 (101 points) and closed at 5949 with a gain of 57 points, at centre of P(5952) again. Hence, global cues will decide the direction of Nifty on Monday. Nifty futures range was 5863 - 5980. Agni level for Monday is at 5971. RBI mid quarter credit policy review was announced at 12.00 noon today and market slid 17 points before surging hundred points.

17/12/2010 Friday is market Holiday on account of Muharam. Any further comments if required will be added on Sunday.

Wednesday, December 15, 2010

Nifty closes at 5892 , below tomorrow's Agni level


Today(15-12-10)Nifty opened at 5929 with a loss of 15 points, moved in the negative territory 5866 - 5943 and closed at 5892 with a loss of 52 points. Nifty futures range was 5873 - 5955, with the characteristic that the premium was almost nil just before closing. As tomorrow's Agni level is at 5923, Nifty may decline further.

Tuesday, December 14, 2010

Nifty closes at centre of P(5952)


Today(14-12-10)Nifty opened at 5929 with a gain of 21 points, moved down to 5889, moved up to 5954 and closed at 5944 with a gain of 36 points. As the closing is at the centre of P(5952) global cues may decide tomorrow's direction. Nifty futures range was 5906 - 5970. Tomorrow's Agni level is at 5836.

Monday, December 13, 2010

Nifty closes above 5900 after high volatility


Today(13-12-10) till 13.30 direction of market was uncertain and at that time Nifty was down by 52 points. Nifty opened at 5846 with a loss of 11 points, after touching 5881 it declined swiftly to 5796, stayed in 5805 - 5833 range till 13.30, moved upwards smoothly to 5914 and closed at 5908 with a gain of 51 points. Thus it was a highly volatile day. Nifty futures clocked an opening figure of 5985, almost 100 points up from yesterday close which might be an error committed by some Mumbai broker. Hence, today's future figures given are of MININIFY(20) and the range was 5797 - 5940. As Nifty close is above 5900, tomorrow it may move to centre of P(5952). Agni level for tomorrow is at 5782.

Sunday, December 12, 2010

Exceptional Friday effect - up move of 128 points


On Friday(10-12-10)though Nifty opened at 5721 with a loss of 46 points, it moved to 5849(up move of 128 points) on strongest Exceptional Friday effect, thereafter moved in the range 5803 - 5866 and closed at 5857 with a gain of 90 points. Nifty futures range was 5748 - 5888, having a difference of 140 points. Agni level for Monday is at 5788.

Even though Nifty closing at 5857 is in P, Nifty average for the day is at 5793 which is just below the boarder and in M2 (see chart below). Hence next two days may confirm where it really is. So at present centre of M2(5642)to centre of P(5952) is the range anticipated for next two days.

Thursday, December 9, 2010

Nifty closes @5767 in M2 (Prati Madhyamam)


Today's(9-12-10) down fall in Nifty is more than anticipated and it closed at 5767 with a loss of 137 points in M2(Prati Madhyamam ; Low: 5464, Centre: 5642, Top: 5797). Nifty opened at 5927 with a gain of 23 points, moved down to 5840 up to 13.30, swiftly moved down to 5742( almost 100 points), despite positive opening of European markets. Nifty futures range was 5941 -> 5757, having a difference of 184 points, which is the highest in the year 2010. As Nifty has moved in to M2 it may move to centre of M2(5642) in coming days. As tomorrow is also an exceptional Friday(last 5 days in red) an up move of 50 to 100 points can be expected. Tomorrow's Agni level is at 5843.

Wednesday, December 8, 2010

Nifty closes @ 5904, below centre of P(5952)


Today(8-12-10)Nifty opened at 5954 with a loss of 23 points, moved down to 5878 and closed at 5904 with a loss of 73 points, below centre of P(5952). Nifty may move down to 5836(tomorrow's Soma level) - 5797(low of P). Nifty futures range was 5985 -> 5894. Agni level for tomorrow is at 5969.

Tuesday, December 7, 2010

Nifty again closes below 6000


Today(7-12-10)Nifty opened at 5979 with a loss of 13 points, moved erratically in the range 5940 - 6001 and closed at 5977 with a loss of 15 points. Nifty futures range was 5956 - 6022.Tomorrow's Agni level is at 6059.

Nifty closes flat with a negative bias


Today(6-12-10)Nifty opened at 6034 with a gain of 41 points, moved up to 6069 (Agni level was 6067),declined steadily and closed flat at 5992 with a loss of 1 point. As Nifty could not retain the gain of 76 points or a part of it and closed with a loss of 1 point there is a negative bias. Nifty range was 5982 - 6069 and Nifty futures range was 5988 - 6094. Agni level for tomorrow is at 6095.

Sunday, December 5, 2010

Nifty closes below Agni level ( below 6005)


On Friday(3-12-10)Nifty moved down to 5964(14.00), bounced back and closed at 5993 with a loss of 19 points, below the Agni level for the day(6005). Nifty spot range was 5964 - 6025 whereas Nifty futures range was 5972 - 6035 (for details see table). Agni level for tomorrow is at 6067 and Nifty is likely to move down wards. Expect more downwards on Tuesday as Moon conjuncts with Mars in Sagiturus.

Thursday, December 2, 2010

Nifty closes above 6000


Today(2-12-10)Nifty opened at 6030 with a gain of 69 points, moved in the range 5981 - 6030 and closed at 6012 with a gain of 51 points. Nifty futures range was 5991 - 6039. As Moon conjuncts with Venus tomorrow, market may move down wards. Go short when Nifty spot slides below tomorrow's Agni level(6005).

Wednesday, December 1, 2010

Nifty closes @5961 just above cntre of P(5952)


Today(1-12-10)Nifty opened at 5875 with a gain of 12 points, moved upwards steadily to 5971(Surya level was 5969)and closed at 5961 with a gain of 98 points. Nifty futures range was 5875 - 5991. As tomorrow's Surya level is at 6055 Nifty may move above 6000. Tomorrow's Agni level is at 5862.

Tuesday, November 30, 2010

Nifty slightly up despite negative opening


Today(30-11-10)Nifty opened at 5777 with a loss of 53 points, declined further to 5768 (-62 points) before 12.00, surged to 5892(+62 points)and closed at 5863 with a gain of 33 points. Nifty futures range was 5777 - 5915. Tomorrow's Agni level is at 5753.
No change in the view expressed in Sunday post. Nifty may move to centre of P(5952), but avoid fresh buys for long term.

Monday, November 29, 2010

Nifty closes @ 5830 in P(Panchamam)


Today(29-11-10)after moving in the range 5755 - 5843 Nifty closed at 5830 with a gain of 78 points, in P (Panchamam). Today's Nifty chart was totally distorted due to the pre-market high figure of 6243. It creates confusion and no hence no comments today. Nifty futures range was 5788 - 5864. Tomorrow's Agni level is at 5718.

Sunday, November 28, 2010

"Ma" of "Pa Hi Ma" (Elliot's corrective waves ABC) ?


On Friday(26-11-10)Nifty closed at 5752 with a loss of 48 points, in M2(Prati Madhyamam Low: 5464, Centre:5642 & Top: 5797). Off course, there was 100 points up move from 5690 to 5812 due to exceptional Friday effect as anticipated. Nifty spot range was 5690 - 5839 where as Nifty futures range was 5727 - 5867. For other details please refer table above. Agni level for tomorrow is at 5737.

The following are wild thoughts. It may or may not happen. However, writing it as feeling is high due to the planetary positions now(see the chart below)- all planets congregate around angles 0, 90, 180 and 270 angles which linked together will draw a cross(+) which is very damaging to the market and also to the whole world. On the above basis it it felt that market after touching a low of 5642 may move up to 5797 or to 5952 and start to fall fast and may move to 2008 lows. "Pahima" in Sanskrit means "save me".If we consider the Nifty move from 6357 - 2252 as "Pa" (corrective wave A)and 2252 - 6339 as "Hi" (wave B) then "Ma" (wave C)has started downwards from 6339 and it may move down to 2252 or more than that. (If Nifty had crossed 2008 high of 6357 this theory would have been invalidated). In April/May of odd years ( 2005, 2007, 2009 etc) Nifty usually moves to S (Shadjam), and in April/May 2011 either it should move to 3968 or 7936. The chances of 3968 cannot be ruled out. Don't be in panic. It's just a feeling and it may take time. Use your favorite TA tools also to trade profitably.

Thursday, November 25, 2010

Nifty closes at bottom of P(5797)


Today(25-11-10)also Nifty was highly volatile. Opened at 5900 with a gain of 34 points, Nifty moved in the range 5849 - 5907 up to 13.00, though declined to 5826 at 13.30 by 15.00 it moved up to 5871 and gave the impression that closing will be around 5900 levels. But, the sell off started at 3.00 p.m. shaved off 100 points and Nifty closed at 5800 with a loss of 66 points. Thus Nifty closed today at the lower end of P and below the Agni level. If Nifty slips further it will be M2 area. As tomorrow is an exceptional Friday an up move of 50 to 100 points to materialise. It is to be seen where it closes tomorrow. Nifty futures range was 5909 - 5792. Tomorrow's Agni level is at 5842.

Wednesday, November 24, 2010

Volatality similar to yesterday


Today(24-11-10)Nifty opened at 5951 with a gain of 16 points, moved in the range 5929 - 5977 up to 14.00, moved down to 5834 ( - 101 points) and closed at 5866 with a loss of 66 points(today's Soma level was 5866). Today's 100 points fall was similar to yesterday's. Nifty futures range was 5987 -> 5835, having a difference of 152 points. Tomorrow being a F&O settlement day high volatility expected. Nifty may close around 5900 levels. Tomorrow's Agni level is at 5857.

Tuesday, November 23, 2010

Volatility beyond expectation.


Today's(23-11-10)volatility was beyond expectation - Korean tremors shook the market.
Nifty opened at 5942 with a loss of 68 points, moved between 5937 - 5964 up to 11.30, fall of more than 100 points - up to 5825 - and full recovery, again in the range 5925 - 5950 after 14.30 and closing around the opening level at 5935 with a loss of 75 points. At 15.15 when Nifty was at 5825 Nifty was gone down more than 3%. When ever there was a fall of more than three percent, 8 out of 10 instances Nifty recovered half of it on the same day or the next day. Today it happened on the same day. Nifty range today was 5825 - 5973 where as Nifty futures range was 5822 - 5968 (for details see chart above). Volatility is likely to continue for the next two days also. Tomorrow's Agni level is at 5890.

Monday, November 22, 2010

Except High volatility in next three days


Today(22-11-10)Nifty opened at 5945 with a gain of 55 points, moved in the range 5905 - 5960 up to 13.00, moved up to 6020 thereafter(Surya level was 6000)and closed at 6010 with a gain of 120 points. Nifty futures range was 5907 - 6027, having a difference of 120 points. Expect high volatility in coming three days. Tomorrow's Agni level is at 5868.

Sunday, November 21, 2010

Nifty closes at 23x ( 256 x 23 = 5888)


On Friday(19-11-10)Nifty closed at 5890 with a loss of 109 points ie. at 23x. At 13.55 Nifty was at 5987 with just 12 points loss. The down move to 5864 ( - 135 points)came thereafter, may be due to China's hike in reserve requirement ratio(btw Soma level was 5868). In this down move Nifty futures moved to discount after two and half months of hefty premiums, signaling a negative bias. Nifty futures range was 5860 - 6013 against spot range of 5864 - 6013. Tomorrow's Agni level is at 5871.

Thursday, November 18, 2010

Highly volatile day - closing at 6000


Highly volatile day - swing of 170 points, but closing at 5999 with a gain of 10 points. Today's(18-11-10)Nifty futures range was 5925 - 6059. Tomorrow's Agni level is at 5908. Market is unstable and hence assumptions based on today's figures may not hold good for tomorrow.

Tuesday, November 16, 2010

Nifty near centre of P(5952)


Though Nifty opened at 6144 with a gain of 22 points today(16-11-10), due to adverse global cues, after 11.00 a.m. it declined fast and moved near to centre of P(5952)as anticipated in Saturday's post. Expectation that Nifty may move to D1 (in yesterday's post) was thus aborted. Nifty closed at 5889 with a loss of 133 points. Nifty futures range was 6134 -> 5975. Tomorrow(17-11-10) being a holiday on account of Bakri-Id Thursday's Agni level is at 5956.

Monday, November 15, 2010

Nifty may move to D1 (above 6154)


Today(15-11-10) Nifty opened at 6085 with a gain of 13 points, declined to 6039, gradually moved up to 6129 and closed at 6122 with a gain of 50 points. It is likely that Nifty may move above 6154 and enter D1 giving possibility for another move to 6300 - 6355 area. Nifty futures range was 6060 - 6149. Tomorrow's Agni level is at 6068 and Nifty above Agni level signals a buy.

Saturday, November 13, 2010

Nifty back to P (Panchamam)


On Friday(12-11-10)Nifty opened at 6163 with a loss of 31 points, moved upwards to 6201, thereafter steadily declined to 6057(Soma level: 6044) and closed at 6072 in P(Panchamam - Low: 5797, Centre: 5952, High: 6154)with a loss of 122 points. Therefore, Nifty may move towards centre of P(5952). Nifty futures range was 6241 -> 6074. Monday's Agni level is at 6147.

Thursday, November 11, 2010

Nifty closes below 6200


Today(11-11-10)Nifty opened at 6297 with a gain of 21 points, declined gradually to 6180 and closed at 6194 with a loss of 82 points. During the last three days, though Nifty was below the Agni level significant down move was not there. Today it happened. Nifty futures range was 6321 -> 6209. Tomorrow's Agni level is at 6258.

Wednesday, November 10, 2010

Nifty back to day before yesterdays level.


Today(10-11-10) Nifty moved in the range 6269 - 6308 and closed at 6276 with a loss of 26 points. Thus Nifty is back to day before yesterday's level. Nifty futures range was 6295 - 6332. Tomorrow's Agni level is at 6348.

Tuesday, November 9, 2010

Nifty closes with a gain of 29 points


Today(9-11-10) Nifty moved in the range 6244 - 6311 and closed at 6302 with a gain of 29 points. Nifty up move from 6253 to 6311 came after 1.00 p.m. Futures premium increased from 18 points to 36 points during this period, may be due to short covering. Nifty futures range was 6262 - 6347. Tomorrow's Agni level is at 6398.

Monday, November 8, 2010

Nifty closes below Agni level


Today(8-11-10)Nifty closed at 6273 with a loss of 39 points, below the Agni level for the day(6345). Nifty range was 6265 - 6335. Nifty futures range was 6282 - 6340. Nifty may continue its down move tomorrow. Tomorrow's Agni level is at 6376.

Sunday, November 7, 2010

Nifty closes at 6312, its highest ever ( new high 10167 on 13-10-17)


On Diwali Muhurat trading (5th November,2010 evening)Nifty closed at 6312, its highest closing ever, though high reached was 6339 against the 2008 January high of 6357. Nifty formed a black candle (Open: 6322 & close: 6312)on Muhurat trading along with breaking of lower figures in Nifty future. It's like half glass milk. Optimists can take it positively and pessimists can take it negatively. Nandi is always positive whenever Nifty is above the Agni level and negative otherwise. Tomorrow's Agni level is at 6345.

Thursday, November 4, 2010

WISH YOU ALL A VERY HAPPY DIWALI


Multiple HAPPY DIWALI joy is here. Nifty near all time high - Coal India IPO gain of 40% in first day - US President Mr. Barack Obama arrives for his first visit to India.


Today(4-11-10)Nifty reached 6280 - 6300 area (High:6290)as posted on 1st November, 2010 (Monday). Nifty close was 6282 second highest in its life time (highest was 6288 on 8th January, 2008)with a gain of 121 points. Next target is the centre of D1(6355). Nifty futures range : 6222 - 6310. Tomorrow's Agni level is at 6284. Being Diwali Muhurat, tomorrow's trading is in between 6.15 pm. and 7.00 p.m only.

Wednesday, November 3, 2010

Nifty closes in D1 - but, loses momentum


Today(3-11-10)Nifty opened at 6168 with a gain of 49 points, moved in the tight range 6183 -> 6147 and closed at 6161, with a gain of 42 points in D1. Nifty futures range was 6215 -> 6176. Last one and half hour saw the high and low of the day and high volatility. As Nifty close today is below the Agni level for tomorrow (6166)it can be said that Nifty is losing momentum and it is to be seen whether it can remain in D1.

Tuesday, November 2, 2010

Nifty closed flat even after RBI's Repo Rate increase


Today(2-11-10)Nifty closed flat at 6119 even after 25 basis points raise announced by RBI in Repo and Reverse Repo rates with immediate effect. Volatility was low as can be seen from the Nifty's +20 to -24 points variation. Nifty futures range was 6128 - 6174, having a difference of 46 points only. RBI didn't announce any other steps to tame the inflation, which continues to surge and that may the reason market hesitated on announcement of expected 25 basis points increase in Repo and Reverse Repo rates. Let us wait for tomorrow also to know whether Nifty intends to move to D1. Agni level for tomorrow is at 6078.

Monday, November 1, 2010

Nifty closes above Agni level


Today(1-11-10) Nifty opened at 6097 with a gain of 79 points, moved in the range 6085 - 6132 and closed at 6118 with a gain of 100 points. Nifty futures range was 6091 - 6172, having a premium around 35 points. RBI monetary policy review is due for tomorrow and hence the closing is important. If closes in D1(above 6154), a retest of 6280 - 6300 area can be anticipated. Tomorrow's Agni level is at 6011.