Monday, August 31, 2009

Nifty holds the opening level

As Chinese and Asian markets were down in the opening, Nifty today (31-8-09) opened gap down at 4662 with a loss of 70 points. After moving in the range 4701 - 4635 Nifty closed the day at the same level of opening ie. at 4662 which is 70 points lower than yesterday's closing. Since Nifty was able to hold the opening level at the closing also Nifty may rebound and recover the loss tomorrow, provided global cues in the morning does not indicate otherwise.

Friday, August 28, 2009

Exceptional Friday Effect 93 points; But Nifty up 44 points only

As the area around 4731(recent high)may offer stiff resistance and possibility of sell off is also there, Nandi didn't expect much gain today(28-8-09) due to Exceptional Friday Effect. Lo! market has its own ways. First, Nifty corrected intraday to 4651( -37 points) to create head space for Exceptional Friday Effect and zoomed 93 points to 4744, breaching the recent high of 4731. However, Nifty closed at 4732 with a gain of 44 points only. Now the probability is that Nifty may move to centre of Gandharam at 4759 on Monday. As the 4th September is the next Full Moon day, expect the top around that date.

Thursday, August 27, 2009

August series settlement day Nifty closes flat

Today (27-8-09), the settlement day for August series, Nifty closed flat at 4688 after narrow range bond movements within the range 4645 to 4708. On global cues Nifty opened with a loss of 36 points and soon recovered all the losses (10.30) and moved within a narrow band similar to yesterday. Today's high was 4708 (+ 27 points)at 13.05. Nifty futures range was 4655 - 4712 with a difference of 57 points. Yesterday's and today's Nifty movements might have been regulated by Futures & Call/Put Option writers. Otherwise Nifty may have followed global cues and declined. Therefore, even though tomorrow is an Exceptional Friday, don't expect large gains. Further, near the recent high of 4731 (on 4-8-09) selling is likely to emerge. Though Nifty was below the Agni level for the last four days, correction is yet to come.

Wednesday, August 26, 2009

Nifty closes just below Agni level.

Today (26-8-09) after swinging in a tight range from 4659 - 4698 range Nifty closed at 4681 with a gain of 22 points. Today's Agni level was at 4682 and the closing is just one point below it. Nifty's plus through out the day roughly at half an hour interval was 24, 35, 14, 34, 1, 0, 36, 39, 21, 33, 16, 20 and 22 - did not move to negative territory. Nifty futures range was 4653 - 4703, just 50 points difference, which is the lowest after 20th March, 2009. On 20th March, 2009 the range was 2765 - 2813 with a difference of 48 points. Considering the Nifty value on that day and today it can be said that percentage wise today's range was the lowest. This may be due to the fact that F&O settlement is due for tomorrow. Tomorrow's Agni level is at 4767 and it is felt that Nifty may not be able to touch that level tomorrow.

Tuesday, August 25, 2009

Nifty closes below Agni level

Nifty today (25-8-09) had almost a "N" shape movement. Opened at 4598(-45), 4636(-7), 4583(-60) at 11.30 and 4673(+30) at 14.42 and closing at 4659 (+16). Though at the first attempt, Nifty didn't go up to Agni level at 4674, in the afternoon session it exactly touched the level (4673) and declined. Tomorrow's Agni level is at 4682, Nifty closing is at 4659 and hence anticipate a decline. However, high volatility is expected as settlement of August series is just two days away.

Monday, August 24, 2009

Nifty closes in Gandharam. But below Agni level for tomorrow

Today (24-8-09) Nifty opened with a gain of 77 points, inched up to 4656 (15.10), declined to 4626 (15.30) and closed at 4643 in Gandharam with a gain of 114 points. Today's Soma level was at 4647 and Nifty remained below that level till 15.00. After that it added just 9 points more and reached today's high 4656. Tomorrow's Agni level is at 4674 which is above the Nifty closing today. Therefore, unless Nifty is able to close above 4674 tomorrow it is a signal to exit/short.

Saturday, August 22, 2009

Nifty again closes above 4500

Friday (21-8-09)after volatile movement in the range 4401 to 4539 Nifty closed at 4529 with a gain of 76 points. On global cues, Nifty opened at 4413 with a loss of 40 points, increased the loss to 52 points, thereafter steadily moved up to 4493, on concerns on drought it lowered up to 4468 (14.05 - FM's speech)and surged ahead to 4539 again on improved global cues. Once 4500 is bypassed it gained fast due to short covering which is evident from the decrease in Open Interest in 4500 call - 50.20 lakhs reduced to 29.75 lakhs. As Soma level for tomorrow increased from 4564 to 4647, further gain in Nifty is expected on Monday.

Thursday, August 20, 2009

Nifty again closes near Chat. Rishabham centre point

"For the period up to 27th Aug, above 4500 is a tough task as 43 lakhs call outstanding is there at present. Nifty may move above 4611 in to Gandharam after that, but above 4731 is difficult up to October 2009 as PE Ratio will be above 21 when selling will come in. Similarly if Dollar price moves above 49.00 then also be careful. Therefore, expecting a down ward move soon after this months F&O settlement will be a most logical conclusion." This is a reply given to a query to one of the visitors yesterday (refer comments under the post dated 18th August for the query)and Today's (20-8-09) Nifty movement just confirms the above view. Nifty opened gap up at 4476 and moved in a very narrow range of 4462 - 4484 till 13.00, then down to 4452, up to 4493 at 14.30 and again down to 4450 and close at 4453. Till 14.30 Nifty futures range was 4490-4442 (just 48 points difference) and only after 14.30 the range widened to 4504 - 4440, a difference of 64 points which is divisible by 8. At closing the open interest in 4500 call is at 50 lakhs, 4400 put is at 46 lakhs and 4300 put is 60 lakhs.

Wednesday, August 19, 2009

Nifty down to lower boarder of Chatustruti Rishabham

Contrary to expectation of an up move, Nifty today (19-8-09) opened with 4 points loss, moved up to 4478 (10.25) and traversed downwards to the lower boarder of Chatusruti Rishabham at 4353(12.18), a loss of 106 points. After that it oscillated between 4380 - 4425 and closed the day at 4394 with a loss of 65 points. Today's low was 6 points lower than the latest low of last Wednesday (12th Aug), but did not breach Chatusruti Rishabham band width. As tomorrow's Agni level is at 4402, Soma Surya levels is staying at the same levels of yesterday and 21st August is a new moon day which in majority occasions beneficial to the market, it is definitely a buy if Nifty trades above the Agni level.

Tuesday, August 18, 2009

Nifty closes at centre point of Chatusruti Rishabham

Today (18-8-09) Nifty opened at 4373 with a loss of 15 points, moving up and down without breaching the initial low up to 10.20 moved upwards to 4491(gain of 103 points)at 13.06. There after Nifty moved within a triangle and closed at 4459 with a gain of 71 points. As tomorrow's Soma level is at 4571 Nifty may move up passing 4500 level. Nifty for the last one month is swinging in the range 4348 - 4464 - 4611 (Chatustruti Rishabham)and 4611 - 4759 (Gandharam low & centre).
During this period it can be presumed that Nifty chanted three names of Lord Shiva namely Vishweshwara (വിശ്വേശ്വര),Vaamadeva(വാമദേവ)and Bhoothapathi(ഭൂതപതി) as per music scale conversion of figures 4442, 4584 and 4616 in to alphabets. Many devotees of Lord Shiva arrive in this blog by searching for thousand names of Lord Shiva. Lord Shiva's Thousand names (Shiva Sahasra Namavaly) and 108 names(Shiva Astothara Satha Namavaly) is posted in my Malayalam blog "".

Monday, August 17, 2009

Nifty closes below Agni level - 192 points loss

From 5th August, 2009 onwards Nandi was expressing concern over the Nifty positioning and cautioned visitors of the impending crash. That is why "Nifty above Agni level - Even then don't buy" was advised - the massive gap down opening was expected in the last week itself, where exit will be impossible without loss as of today. Today (17-8-09) Nifty opened with a loss of 90 points at 4490 and the loss increased steadily till 15.20, touched low of 4374 and thereafter closed the day at 4388 with a loss of 192 points. Nifty futures low touched the Surya level at 4357. Tomorrow's Agni level is at 4521 and don't make any buy when ever Nifty is below the Agni level.

Sunday, August 16, 2009

Nifty's Friday low is the Agni level for tomorrow

On Friday (14-8-09) Nifty spot moved in a very narrow range of 4619 - 4559 and Nifty futures 4611 - 4552 (just 59 points difference and that is the lowest after 7th May,2009). Nifty oscillated between +14 and -36 and closed the day at 4580 with a loss of 25 points. If Nifty is unable to go up and close in Gandharam (above 4611)next week, down ward movement may continue in coming days. Tomorrow's Agni level is at 4558 and that is the low of Nifty spot on Friday. If it breaks, exit all longs and go short.

Thursday, August 13, 2009

Nifty may not go beyond Gandharam

Nifty today (13-8-09) opened at 4547 with a gain of 89 points and later added 50 plus points before closing at 4605 with a gain of 147 points. As you might have already noted, Nifty in most of the days stayed in Chatusruti Rishabham (low: 4348, centre: 4464, high: 4611) after 17th July, 2009. However, during this period, once it moved to Gandharam (low: 4611, Centre: 4759, high: 4859)and the high was 4731. Therefore it seems that Nifty may not go beyond the centre of Gandharam (4759) for the time being and may reverse its direction once it is in Gandharam ( above 4611). So, be cautious.

Wednesday, August 12, 2009

Nifty bounces back after touching SuryaAgni levels

Today (12-8-09) Nifty moved in a U shape. Opening with a loss of 65 points at 4406 it slightly moved up to 4440 (10.30), steadily declined to Agni level at 4361 / Surya level at 4359 (13.00), thereafter retraced almost all losses and was at centre point of Chatusruti Rishabham (4465) at 15.30. On averaging Nifty closed the day at 4458 with a loss of just 13 points. The pull back was really impressive considering the fact that Nifty could recover 100 points from the day's low at 4359 (loss of 112 points). It is probable that Nifty may continue its up move tomorrow till next bout of selling starts, may be above 4500. Today FIIs net sell was at 504.99 crores.

Tuesday, August 11, 2009

Nifty above Agni level - Even then don't buy

Today(11-8-09) Nifty closed at 4471 with a gain of 33 points, which is above the Agni level for tomorrow at 4361. Even then Nandi is not recommending a buy now, due to the apprehensions expressed in the last post. Further, selling of FIIs continues for the last five days (5th 480.40 crores, 6th 246.50 crores, 7th 846.10 crores, 10th 639.92 crores, 11th 177.47 crores) and H1N1 flue is spreading. Today Nifty moved from 4400 to 4511 by 14.00 and crashed to 4444 before closing at 4471. The crash from 4511 to 4444 within 45 minutes can also be considered as a weakness. There may be a reward of 150 - 200 points for the traders who are ready to take risk and follow tight stop loss. Others just watch and trade light.

Sunday, August 9, 2009

Trade the week ahead with caution

As expected, Nifty low on Friday, the 7th August,2009 was 4464, the centre point of Chatusruti Rishabham and closing was at 4481(a loss of 105 points). Even after such a fall Surya level is still at 4448 which indicates a bounce back, may be to the tune of Friday fall. If that happens Nifty will be above Agni level at 4570 which is a buy again. But, the chances are that Nifty may not go beyond 4570 and prepare for next downward movement.
The period from 10th to 20th August warrants special attention. Many figures in the analysis sheet of Kamolikav, a copy of which is being maintained by Nandi, is showing decreasing / negative figures during this period. The exact implications of it is not yet clear. Nifty PE ratio has gone above 20 and except for October-December 2007, normally corrections take place when Nifty PE is around 21-22. Perhaps the sell off seen on the afternoon of 7th August(full moon day)may have triggered by an advanced computer trading software used by an FII on touching a predefined PE ratio. As the week ahead may spring in surprises, it is advisable to trade with caution and with tight stop loss.

Thursday, August 6, 2009

Full moon effect pulls down Nifty 159 points.

Vipani Sangeetham posted warning messages for the last two days on Nifty moving below Agni level and Full moon day on 6th August(today). Hope, at least some retail traders might have anticipated the fall and benefited. Today (6-8-09)till 12.30 p.m. Nifty moved in a narrow range of 32 points of 4652-4684. As European markets opened in green, Nifty started moving up fast and by 13.52 gained 42 points(from 4666 to 4718). Thereafter Nifty swooped fast and touched 4559 by 15.00 (loss of 159 points). Gaining a bit later Nifty closed the day at 4586 with a loss of 108 points. Nandi don't know exactly what pulled down Nifty so fast. Only thing noted is that on full moon days in majority cases market witnesses a steep fall. On July 6, 2009 just one day prior to full moon Nifty closed the day with a loss of 258 points. Who are interested can search for probable reasons, but the fact remains.

Tomorrow's Agni level is at 4709 and Surya level is at 4458(Surya level was 4461,4458 for the last two days and same 4458 tomorrow). Therefore it is probable that the fall may continue up to 4450.

Wednesday, August 5, 2009

Nifty again below Agni level

Today (5-8-09) Nifty closed flat at 4694 (R18A5 both days). Nifty after opening with a gain of 23 points moved up to 4717 (10.10 a.m.), came down to 4630 (11.30) and climbed back to 4708(15.06) before closing at 4694. As Agni level for tomorrow is at 4766, Nifty closing is below the Agni level for today & tomorrow. As tomorrow is a full moon day Nifty may exhibit tendency to move down wards.

Tuesday, August 4, 2009

Nifty below Agni level

Today (4-8-09) Nifty closed at 4681 with a loss of 30 points. Nifty opened at 4731, came down to 4643 by 14.35 and climbed back to 4694 before closing. As Agni level for tomorrow is at 4728, today's Nifty closing is below the Agni level for tomorrow and hence it is time to exit longs if Nifty does not move above 4728 tomorrow. As full moon day is near Nifty may slide down further.

Monday, August 3, 2009

Nifty closes above 4700 level

Today (3-8-09) Nifty moved from 4668 to 4618 up to 12.33 and as European markets turned positive Nifty also took a U turn and moved upwards and up to 15.00 stayed near last high of 4693. After a few minutes, around 15.08 Nifty broke 4693/4700 levels. That prompted short covering by bears which lifted Nifty to 4724 levels till 15.30 and closing at 4711 with a gain of 75 points. Next levels are 4759 (Gandharam centre point) and 4859 (upper boarder of Gandharam). As Surya level is at 4824 tomorrow's up move may be limited to 4825-4860 area.

Saturday, August 1, 2009

Nifty in Gandharam again after 12th June,2009

Friday's (31-7-2009)Nifty movement is a combination of global cues and Exceptional Friday effect. First part up to 15.00 is due to global and after that Exceptional Friday. As DOW,Asian markets,Singapore Nifty positions were very bullish (Singapore Nifty was up around 60 points in the morning)Nifty opened with a gain of 82 points. After that it not only lost the upward momentum ( after that it added just 10 points gain to record a high of 4670 up to 13.30 ie. not able to reach 4693 of 12-6-09), but also lost and crashed to 4589 by 15.00. Here came the exceptional Friday effect which lifted Nifty again to 4649 and closing at 4636 with a gain of 65 points. So, we have to wait for Monday&Tuesday to know further direction of Nifty. It is to be noted that 5/6th August is a full moon day which in majority cases not good for market and that after reaching 4693 on 12th June,2009 Nifty went down to 3919 by 13th July,2009 before moving upwards. As seen above 12th June and 13th July was a turning point. Is 14th August also?