Thursday, April 29, 2010

Nifty closes at 5254 with a gain of 29 points

Nifty today(29-4-10)opened at 5244 with a gain of 29 points, moved in the range 5223 - 5265 and closed at 5254 with a gain of 39 points. As tomorrow's Agni level is at 5267 only (just 13 points up)and an Exceptional Friday Nifty may move upwards crossing that level giving again a buy signal. For the last one month Nifty is in the Sudha Madhyamam range (Low: 5123 Centre: 5286 High: 5464). See chart below.

Wednesday, April 28, 2010

Full Moon day - Nifty down 93 points

As expected, Nifty today(28-4-10)opened at 5232 with a loss of 74 points, moved up to 5271, again moved downwards to 5202(Soma level was 5220)and closed at 5215 with a loss of 93 points. As tomorrow is a F&O settlement day high volatility can be expected. Tomorrow's Agni level is at 5305 and Nifty may not move above that level.

Tuesday, April 27, 2010

Nifty closes below Agni level

Today(27-4-10)Nifty opened at 5301 moved up to 5331 and closed at 5308 with a loss of 14 points, below the Agni level(5327) as expected. As tomorrow is a full moon day Nifty may move down wards. Hope the visitors had exited longs and gone short. Agni level for tomorrow is at 5348.

Monday, April 26, 2010

Tomorrow Nifty may close below Agni level(5327)

Today(26-4-10)Nifty moved in the range 5316 - 5342 and closed at 5322 with a gain of 18 points. If Nifty doesn't move above tomorrow's Agni level at 5327, exit longs and go short. Otherwise wait for the full moon day ie. on 28th April. Today's Nifty PE Ratio is at 23.11.

Sunday, April 25, 2010

Nifty closes above the centre of Sudha Madhyamam

On Friday(23-4-10)Nifty opened at 5300 with a gain of 31 points, moved in the range 5274 - 5311 and closed at 5304 with a gain of 35 points. In another words, Nifty closed around the opening level of the day. Friday closing is above the centre of Sudha Madhyamam (5286) indicating a little bit up move still possible. Even at 5304 Nifty PE Ratio is 23.03. Except in 2000 and 2008 correction took place when PE Ratio was in the range 23 to 24. That means it may be in the range 5300 - 5500 this time. Another observation is that correction may be in April/May period (see Nifty Montly chart below - prepared by Abhayji[nearby light houses link3]in 2008). So avoid going long and watch for sell signal ie. Nifty closes below the Agni level. One can buy/hold mid&small cap stocks that have not doubled from Feb/Mar 2009 level. Tomorrow's Agni level is at 5280.

Thursday, April 22, 2010

Nifty closes below the centre of Sudha Madhyamam

Today(22-4-10) Nifty showed high volatility and the range was 5221 - 5332 ( 111 points). Nifty futures range was 5217 - 5342 ( 125 points). However closing was at 5269 with a gain of 24 points only, below the centre of Sudha Madhyamam (5286). Today's volatility may be due to the Moon - Mars conjunction. So, 26th(Moon - Saturn conjunction) or 28th( Full Moon day)may be turning day for Nifty, if Agni level confirms. Tomorrow's Agni level is at 5214.

Wednesday, April 21, 2010

Nifty closes above the Agni level.

Today(21-4-10)Nifty moved in a narrow range of 5233 - 5266 and closed at 5245 with a gain of 15 points,above the Agni level. Tomorrow's Agni level is at 5188.

Tuesday, April 20, 2010

Nifty closes above the Agni level

Today(20-4-10)Nifty opened at 5236 with a gain of 32 points, moved in the range 5214 to 5257 and closed at 5230 with a gain of 26 points. Today's high was touched just after RBI credit policy announcement. Nifty futures range was 5208 - 5256. Though Nifty futures was on premium in the morning, after 13.00 it was in discount. Tomorrow's Agni level is at 5180.

Nifty closes again below Agni level

Nifty today(19-4-10)closed at 5204 with a loss of 59 points, in Sudha Madhyamam range. Tomorrow's Agni level is at 5207.

Today Nandi was on a visit to Pampumekkattu Mana, near Mala, Thrissur, where Nagraj Vasuki, who adorns Lord Shiva is being worshiped. Hence unable to attend the market.

Sunday, April 18, 2010

Nifty closes below centre of Sudha Madhyamam

On Friday(16-4-10)after swinging between 5238 - 5283 Nifty closed at 5263 with a loss of 11 points, below the centre of Sudha Madhyamam (5286). As Nifty closing is below the Agni level it may move down further to low of Sudha Madhyamam (5123). Tomorrow's Agni level is at 5262.

During the last week, though DOW broke the 11,000 mark and advanced to 11,155, Nifty's upward movement was limited to 5382 (did not move again to 5400 plus levels as expected). As Friday late European markets and DOW declined heavily that's effect may be seen here also on Monday.

Thursday, April 15, 2010

Nifty closes at 5274, below Agni level

Though Nifty today(15-4-10)opened at 5373 with a gain of 50 points, it declined steadily and closed at 5274 with a loss of 49 points. Nifty close is near the centre of Sudha Madhyamam (5286). Nifty futures range was 5268 - 5378, a difference of 110 points. After 14.00 Nifty declined below Agni level at 5315 signaling exit of longs. Tomorrow's Agni level is at 5304.

Tuesday, April 13, 2010

Nifty holds 5300 level and closes at 5323

Nifty today(13-4-10)closed at 5323 with a loss of 17 points. Nifty's range was 5302 - 5331 and of Nifty futures 5308 - 5338. Nifty futures high and low difference was 30, the lowest after 15th March, 2010. Thursday's Agni level is at 5315, below the Nifty close today.
Tomorrow (14th April) is a holiday on account Dr. Ambedkar Jayanti. Though Sun transits to Medam (Aries) tomorrow, Vishu festival is on Thursday the 15th April.


Monday, April 12, 2010

Nifty close at 5340 (R20A14)

Today(12-4-10)at the opening Nifty moved up to 5382, declined fast to the range 5325 - 5366 and closed at 5340 with a loss of 22 points. Continuation of sideways movement. Tomorrow's Agni level is at 5347.

Sunday, April 11, 2010

Friday's( 9th April, 2010) Nifty PERatio is at 23.21

As market conditions worldwide improved overnight(fear on Greece issue reduced)on 9th April,2010(Friday) Nifty opened at 5332 with a gain of 28 points, moved up to 5377 and closed at 5362 with a gain of 58 points. Interestingly, though Friday's Nifty close is not the recent highest(5375), Nifty PE Ratio is highest at 23.21 due to the replacement of Grassim by Kotak Bank w.e.f 7th April,2010. For the last one month Nifty was trading in Sudha Madhyamam range (Low: 5123, Centre: 5286, High: 5464) in yearly scale and R20 to R21A1 in daily scale. It seems that the said side wise movement may terminate during this week or next and Nifty may move upwards. It is to be seen whether Nifty moves to Prati Madhyamam range (Low: 5464, Cenre: 5642, High: 5797). Tomorrow's Agni level is at 5375.

Thursday, April 8, 2010

Nifty closes near 5300

Today(8-4-10)Nifty closed at 5304 with a loss of 71 points. Nifty opened with a loss of 16 points, oscillated between 5343 to 5371 up to 12.00 and steadily declined there after up to 5290, as indexes of European markets retreated. It is likely that Nifty may continue its downward move tomorrow at the opening. A recovery thereafter also cannot be ruled out. Tomorrow's Agni level is at 5398.

Wednesday, April 7, 2010

Nifty closing third day at R21A0 ( 256 x 21 = 5376)

As expected, mild sell off came in when Nifty touched 5400 today (7-4-10) that pushed down Nifty to 5345. But, Nifty bounced back and closed at 5375 with a gain of 9 points. Nifty's closing at this level ie. R21A0 ( 256 x 21 = 5376)continues for the last three days. Either it can be a pause or preparation for a decline. Next two days may reveal what Nifty intends to do. Tomorrow's Agni level is at 5410.

Tuesday, April 6, 2010

Nifty close at 5366 with a loss of 2 points.

After moving in a very narrow range of 37 points from 5352 to 5389, Nifty today (6-4-10) closed at 5366 with a loss of 2 points. Tomorrow's Agni level is at 5358 and Nifty's movement below that level is a signal to exit longs.

Monday, April 5, 2010

Nifty close at 5368 ( R21A0)

Today Nifty closed at 5368 with a gain of 77 points at 21x in music scale(R21A0).
At this level PE Ratio of Nifty is 22.85. Experts say that PE Ratio above 23 is euphoria stage and that is above 5404. Nifty may move maximum to top of Sudha Madhyamam (5464), but it will be better to exit all profitable longs or at least 50% of it around 5400.As pointed out earlier now midcaps and small caps are flaring up. Today it was the day of small cap DYNACONS(21%). Tomorrow's Agni level is at 5312.

Friday, April 2, 2010

Nifty closes at the centre of Sudha Madhyamam

On Thursday(1-4-10)Nifty moved in the range 5267 - 5299 and closed at 5291 with a gain of 42 points, at the centre of Sudha Madhyamam again. Nifty closing is close to Agni level at 5292. Through out the month of March 2010 the difference between daily high and low of Nifty futures was below 100 points and average 52. At present the market is range bound and lacks direction. As Monday's Agni level is at 5288, on Monday opening Nifty is above the Agni level and it may move upwards.