Thursday, July 30, 2009

Nifty may continue its upmove beyond 4611

At today (30-7-09) closing Nifty was again where it was, day before yesterday, recovering all the yesterday's losses and today morning's 40 points loss. Today Nifty's range was 4474- 4582 and closing at 4571 ie. 7 points higher than Tuesday's closing. Thus Nifty will once again try to move up, by passing the 4611 (Chatusruti Rishabham upper boarder)level to 4759 (centre point of Gandharam). Before that it has to cross 4693, the high reached on 12-6-09. As tomorrow is an exceptional Friday(the day after the monthly F&O settlement), the chances for the above are bright. Tomorrow's Agni level is at 4582, just 14 points higher than the close of today.

Wednesday, July 29, 2009

Wild moves on the penultimate day of F&O settlement

Today(29-7-09)Nifty moved wildly and settled at 4514 in the closing, with a loss of 50 points. Nifty opened at 4521 with a loss of 43 points and steadily moved up till 11.00 and reached 4574,a gain of 53 points from the low. After that it slowly moved down and at 11.30 was at 4544. Then came the wild downward swing of 100 points which dropped Nifty to 4441 by 12.00 and to 4421 by 12.30. One hour up to 13.30 Nifty moved in the central area of Chatusruti Rishabham (4464) before climbing back to 4525 and closing at 4514. Though Nandi had cautioned in his last post, based on the Agni level position, the magnitude of the fall and the recovery seen was not anticipated today as July series settlement is due for tomorrow. The recovery was necessary due to the OI position of puts in the system. Positive opening of European markets was also conducive for a recovery.
Don't hold longs as far as Nifty is below the Agni level. Agni level for tomorrow is at 4601.

Tuesday, July 28, 2009

RBI credit policy on expected lines & hence no effect on market

Today (28-7-09)Nifty closed at 4564 with a loss of 8 points. Today's range was 4600 - 4529, which was almost same as yesterday. The RBI credit policy did not have any significant effect on the market. But tomorrow's Agni level is at 4636 a level which Nifty did not touch after 12th June,2009, and hence warrants caution.

Monday, July 27, 2009

Nifty closes below Agni level for tomorrow

After a range bound movement between 4597 to 4528, Nifty closed today(27-7-09)at 4572 with a gain of just three points. Nifty future high was 4610, the upper boundary of Chatusruti Rishabham band width. Tomorrow's Agni level is at 4584 which is above the Nifty closing today. The strength exhibited on Friday is not seen today. Even though in the early morning Singapore Nifty reached a high of 4625, Nifty opened near yesterday closing and slipped to 4547. As RBI is to announce its quarterly credit policy tomorrow, market will be volatile and caution is to be exercised.

Sunday, July 26, 2009

Friday Nifty closing around Agni level

On last Friday after moving in the range 4505-4579, Nifty closed at 4569 with a gain of 45 points. The low of 4505 at 12.10 and the high of 4579 at 14.20, clearly indicates the up ward momentum of Nifty which is different from usual Fridays. Therefore, it is likely that next week also Nifty may continue its upward journey and it may move to 4611 / 4759. The Agni level for tomorrow is at 4571, almost same level as that of Friday closing and hence on Monday Nifty may move above Agni level.

Thursday, July 23, 2009

Nifty again closes above 4500

In consistence with global cues, Nifty today (23-7-09)opened with a gain of 77 points at 4477 and moved in the range 4502-4455, mostly in the Chatusruti Rishabham central (4464) area from 12.00 to 14.15. Shortly after 14.15 Nifty surged upward and reached a high of 4532 by 15.00. Nifty closed today at 4524 with a gain of 125 points. Nifty futures yesterday closing at a premium of 4 points even after the fall of 70 points and the steady position of Soma levels above 4550 for the last three days could have been taken as an indication of strength, which Nandi ignored totally. As tomorrow's Soma-Surya levels have increased by 100 points, despite Friday, it may be a strong up tomorrow. But, the observations based on last trading days figures will be negated on a different movement in Asian markets particularly Singapore Nifty, as of today.

Wednesday, July 22, 2009

Solar Eclipse Day sees a sell off

At the Sunrise today(22-7-09) India saw a beautiful total Solar Eclipse and after that Nifty saw a sell off. Whether both are related or not is to be confirmed after many observations. The report that we have to wait to next century to see a total solar eclipse does not hold good. It is pointed out by some astronomers that the next total solar eclipse is due in January 2010. It is mentioned here just to say that we will surely get opportunities to check and confirm the relation between the two.

As envisaged, the sell of came after 11.00 a.m as Nifty didn't move above the Agni level at 4591. At that time Nifty was at 4558 ie. at Surya level for the day(4559). It was really fast and powerful - Nandi yesterday used the words "fast downward movement" considering the Solar Eclipse effect and it was there - the effect of which brought down Nifty to 4424 by 13.00 and to 4380 by 15.00, a fall of 178 points within 4 hours. Nifty close today was at 4399, in Chatusruti Rishabham band itself with a loss of 70 points. As Agni level for tomorrow is at 4597 further downward movement can be expected.

Tuesday, July 21, 2009

Nifty closes near centre point of Chatu. Rishabham

Nifty today(21-7-09)moved in the range 4437 - 4505 (high in NSE site is 4524 which was not reflected in chart and also in Nifty futures)and closed near centre point of Chatusruti Rishabham (4464) at 4469 with a loss of 33 points. Range of Nifty futures was 4508 - 4438. Indications of Nifty's next direction will be revealed tomorrow in the day of longest total Solar Eclipse of the centuary. Tomorrow's Agni level is at 4591 and if positive, Nifty has to enter the 4600 area. Otherwise fast downward movement will be the end result.

Monday, July 20, 2009

Nifty closes above 4500

As expressed in the last post, Nifty today (20-7-09)on breaching 4464 after 12.00 p.m ( Nifty range till then was 4412-4453)surged ahead steadily and at 15.15 touched today's highest point 4510, very near to 4539 mentioned (Nifty future high was 4518). Nifty's close today was at 4502, above the centre point of Chatusruti Rishabham(4464). Tomorrow's Agni level is at 4547 and if Nifty holds above Agni levels in coming days then 4611 or 4759 may be achieved shortly.

Friday, July 17, 2009

Nifty in Chatusruti Rishabham

Contrary to the expectations for the Friday, Nifty strongly surged ahead from the starting and closed the day (17-7-09) at 4375 in Chatusruti Rishabham band width with a gain of 144 points. Nifty spot range was 4271(10.00 a.m.) to 4389 (15.30)and Nifty future range was 4256-4400. Today's up movement can be compared to the movement on the Third Friday, the 18th July, 2008 on which Nifty surged exactly 145 points(today is also Third Friday). This type of correlation was expressed earlier also. This point was brought to the notice last Friday to one of the visitors who sought Nandi's opinion (see comments). But, Nandi didn't give due importance to it while posting the last post. This will also be taken in to consideration in future.

There was no exit/short signal today as Agni level was at 4213 and Nifty low 4271. Last year Nifty went up to 4539 before moving down wards. If 4464 (Chatu.Rishabham Centre point) is crossed, that level may be next. Agni level for Monday is 4402.

Thursday, July 16, 2009

Nifty closes flat & Agni level rises to 4213

Nifty today (16-7-09) was highly volatile. Even though opened with a gain of 71 points (4305), the momentum could not be sustained and succumbed to selling pressure. By 12.00 noon it lost all gains and moved to negative territory. Negative high was -29 points (4205). After 12.00 noon Nifty's movement can be summarised as 4240 + or - 35 points.

Agni level for tomorrow is at 4213 and if Nifty drifts below that level traders should exit all longs and shift to short. As Nifty closed flat today at 4231, very near to Agni level and it is a Friday, there is every chance that Agni level will be breached in the opening itself.

Wednesday, July 15, 2009

Nifty closes at centre point of Shuda Rishabham

Nifty today (14-7-09) moved between 4126 - 4156 up to 12.00 noon. Thereafter it gathered momentum and steadily moved up to 4250 before trading hours closed at 15.30. On averaging, Nifty close was at 4234, @ the centre point of Shuda Rishabham (4232), exactly as anticipated in yesterday's post. Nifty future range was 4117 - 4253 with a difference of 136 point which is exactly divisible by 8. Further, to day's high was also exactly at Soma level for the day, ie. 4252. Don't expect such exactness every time, market has its own rhythm and Nandi may not be able to track it exactly.

Tomorrow's Soma level is at 4340 and Nifty may go up to 4348 the upper band of Sudha Rishabham level.

Tuesday, July 14, 2009

Nifty in Sudha Rishabham

Today (14-7-09) Nifty opened gap up at 4056 with a gain of 82 points. At 12.40 Nifty was at 4045, the lowest of the day. Thereafter it gathered momentum, climbed up to 4100 with ease, then came a selling which pulled down Nifty to 4075. But the momentum of the fall evaporated shortly and Nifty climbed again, crossed 4100 levels smoothly and it was at 4129 at 15.30. On averaging Nifty closed at 4111 with a gain of 137 points. As expected in the last post, Nifty is now in Sudha Rishabham band width (above 4100)and may move to centre point (4232) within a day or two.

Monday, July 13, 2009

Nifty closes above Agni level & close to Shadjam centre point.

Nifty today (13-7-09) closed at 3974 close to 3968, the centre point of Shadjam. Nifty closing above 3945, above the Agni level for the day is positive. As tomorrow's Agni level is at 3888, hold on longs for at least 4232, Sudha Rishabham centre point.

Monday strategy

Even after last Friday's last hour fall, Nifty closed at 4004 which is above the Agni level for tomorrow at 3945. As far as it holds you can keep the longs, Nifty may bounce back. If Nifty breaks that level close all longs and go short.

Friday, July 10, 2009

Unexpected last 40 minutes sell off

Opening with a gain of 29 points, till 13.30 Nifty today (10-7-09) moved in the range 4070 - 4110. After that it moved up to 4130 by 14.14, stayed there for a few minutes and slowly started to move down and by 14.50 reached at 4092. Thereafter market saw a basket sell off which pushed Nifty down to 3977 by 15.15 ie. 115 points fall just within 25 minutes. Movement of Nifty up to 14.50 did not gave any indication of a large scale fall and there was no reason that can be attributed to it. It seems FIIs or some other large scale institution had sold Nifty futures, Call options (OI addition of 8.4 lacs in 4100 call and 4.3 lacs in 4000 call seen) and thereafter sold equities heavily to to bring down the market. Media can say "profit booking" dragged Nifty down; but, the last hour large scale selling does not seems to be a normal profit booking. Therefore, indications of up moves may go wrong in such situations as of today.

Thursday, July 9, 2009

Nifty above Agni level - Signal to buy

Today(9-7-09) Nifty stayed in the range 4040 and 4115 moving up and down, crossing the last day closing point a large number (more than 8)of times and at the end closed flat at 4081. Hence, Nifty's close today is above the Agni level for tomorrow at 3971. Therefore, it is a buy and hold tomorrow, provided Nifty does not stoop below 3971. As the quarterly results of Infosys Technologies is due for tomorrow morning, place tight stop loss for longs.

Wednesday, July 8, 2009

Nifty in Shadjam

As mentioned in the post dated 17-6-2009 under the caption "Down movement to Shadjam level started !!!" (It was explained earlier also) Nifty today (8-7-09) closed at 4079 in Shadjam band width (Low:3790, Centre:3968, High: 4100) with a loss of 123 points. Even though an up move was expected if Nifty moves above Agni level 4230 it did not materialise. Instead of that, Nifty opened with a loss of 69 points and the loss further increased to 141 points by 10.30 a.m. At that time Nifty was at 4061 and Nifty futures at 4054 (today's Surya level). At 14.11 Nifty was at 4137 and it gave an impression that Nifty may close above 4100 but, it moved downwards swiftly and closed near today's low at 4079. Tomorrow's Agni level has decreased to 4111 and if Nifty moves above that a small bounce back can be expected. Other wise Nifty may continue its down ward move to the bottom of Shadjam band width.

Tuesday, July 7, 2009

A minor up swing on the anvil ?

After yesterday's jumbo crash of 258 points, Nifty was range bound between 4155 and 4230 today (7-7-09) and closed at 4202 with a gain of 36 points. As tomorrow's Agni level is at 4230 it is likely that Nifty may give buy signal by moving above that point. If it moves above 4230, shorts is to be covered for getting opportunity to short again near upper band of Sudha Rishabham ie. near 4348.

Monday, July 6, 2009

Full moon effect today itself - Nifty down 1 level (256 points)

After starting Vipani Sangeetham, Nandi had not seen such a fall as of today (6-7-09). Nandi had given 4700- 4100 range for the day in the last post dated 5th July, 2009 based on calls and puts position and Nifty low for the day was 4134. Nifty closed the day at 4166 with a loss of 258 points, which is more than one level (256 points)in the music scale. Hence many swaras shown on the left top comprises of two levels which was never occurred earlier. Nandi had in his last post mentioned the ill effects of full moon and today's fall is similar to that had occurred on full moon day in January, 2008. As the fall is as anticipated in the earlier posts nothing more to add. Watch the Agni level and trade accordingly.

Sunday, July 5, 2009

Monday the Budget day - Nifty will be highly volatile

Friday (3-7-09) Nifty closed at 4424 with a gain of 75 points. Up move came in after 13.40 only (Nifty was at 4341 at that time)and went up to 4434 by 15.00. Being the Budget day, on Monday Nifty will be highly volatile. Risk averse traders stay away for the day after 11.00 a.m. Nifty is likely to move up maximum to 4700 (addition of 38 lakhs calls on Friday)and the low can be 4100 (addition of 13 lakhs puts on Friday). Within one or two days, after reaching the maximum, Nifty may start its downward move as mentioned earlier. Please note that Tuesday the 7th July is a full moon day, the day many large falls took place in earlier occasions. Watch the Agni level and trade accordingly. New visitors to Vipani Sangeetham may please note to avoid any purchases when Nifty is below the Agni level.

Thursday, July 2, 2009

Brief up moove can be expected.

The negative effect of petrol price hike didn't bring down Nifty today(2-7-09) even to the yesterday low of 4250. Today's low was 4289 and the close was at 4349 against yesterday close at 4341. After volatile movements in the range 4384 and 4289, during 14.00 and 14.30 Nifty was idling at 4320. Then there came a sudden surge which took Nifty to 4366, reason may be known only to some big traders. Nandi do not agree to the usual explanation of "short covering" as told in media. Nandi wanted the answer why short covering was necessitated. What ever may be the reason, that surge enabled Nifty to close flat and bring down Agni level to 4364, a level which is lower than today's three time highs. Hence, tomorrow Nifty is likely to move above Agni level making us to cover our shorts and go long. One thing that baffles Nandi is the changeless position of Soma-Surya levels for the last three days and the frequent shift in the direction of Nifty. It may perhaps due to the brief direction change in Nifty within the broad downward direction, that might have generated on the eve of new UPA government's first Budget that will be presented to the Parliament next week.

Wednesday, July 1, 2009

Nifty just touched Agni level and receded

Today's (1-7-09) Nifty movement was highly volatile in the range 4250 - 4362. The Nifty position and the relative time are : 4320 (10.00)- 4338 (10.50)- 4250 (11.50) - 4357 (13.00) - 4306 (14.00) - 4362 (14.30)- 4314(15.00) - 4341 (16.00). Nifty high was 4362 just below the Agni level at 4365 and closing was at 4341 below the Agni level. At 14.30 Nifty futures touched the Agni level 4365 and receded. Tomorrow Agni level is at 4401 and as on today Nifty may not cross that level.
As Government of India has hiked petrol prices by Rs.4.00 per liter effective from 12.00 midnight today, it may have an impact on the Nifty opening on tomorrow.