Wednesday, September 30, 2009

Nifty closes above Soma level for the day.

Nifty today (30-9-09)opened at 5021 with a gain of 14 points, came down to 5010 (10.00), and steadily moved upwards to reach 5088 before closing at 5084 with a gain of 77 points. Today's Soma level was at 5073 and Nifty touched it at 14.25 and gained 15 points more to reach 5088. Today's Nifty futures range was 5080 - 4992 with a difference of 88 points. Tomorrow's Agni level is at 5035 and Soma level 5158. Nifty may move to 5120 before starting its descend. Exit when Nifty declines to Agni level. Next full moon is on Sunday, the 4th October,2009 and a trend reversal can be expected on nearby dates.

Tuesday, September 29, 2009

Nifty opened & stayed above Agni level

Though Nifty opened today (29-9-09)at 5017 with a gain of 58 points, the highest was 5020 only(10.14). There after it moved in a very narrow range from 4990 to 5015 and closed at 5007 with a gain of 48 points. Thus today Nifty stayed above Agni level, even though strength was lacking. Nifty futures range was the lowest today from 4984 to 5020, having a difference of 36 points only. Tomorrow's Agni level is at 4978 and Nifty may stay above that tomorrow also. As Nifty futures was 3 to 8 points discount through out the day, buying cannot be recommended.

Monday, September 28, 2009

Nifty may move to upper Shadjam centre-10 x scale

From 16th September,2009 Nifty close is near the centre of Anthara Gandharam (4960), except on 22nd September on which day it closed at 5020. The importance of 4960 can be seen from the table given above :- 1) It is the centre of Anthara Gandharam on 15.5 x scale. 2) It is the middle point between Kakali Nishadham and upper Shadjam on 10 x scale. 3) It is 450 degrees or 1.250 percentage of 3968 on Gann 360 degree scale.
It may be the 10x scale that is most prominent now as the present up move started on 9th March, 2009, the day when all the world markets formed their bottoms. On that assumption centre of lower Shadjam is at 2560 and upper Shadjam at 5120. As Nifty has closed in upper Shadjam band width on 22nd September it seems that Nifty has to move to the centre of upper Shadjam(5120) before starting it's decent(refer post dated 21st September, 2009). As Agni level is declined to 4994, a level which is lower than the 22nd September close, it is likely that Nifty may again move above Agni level and reach the centre of upper Shadjam on 10 x scale or upper boarder of Anthara Gandharam on 15.5x scale.

Friday, September 25, 2009

Friday Nifty closes at Gandharamadhymam

Today (25-9-09)after volatile movement Nifty closed at Gandharamadhyamam (centre of Gandharam ie. 4960). Out of the last 7 trading days, today is the fifth day Nifty closing near centre of Gandharam ie. in the range 4958 - 4976. Nifty opened at 4931 with a loss of 56 points, up to 12.30 moved in a swallow (maximum -18)negative range, moved to 4994 (12.50), declined again to 4931, moved up to 4978(14.35)and swaying in a triangular shape closed at 4959 with a loss of 28 points. Though an exceptional Friday, the effect was muffled with just 47 points ( 4931 - 4978). Nifty futures range was 5008 - 4932, having a difference of 76 points. As Monday is a holiday on account of Vijayadasami next trading day is on 29th September only. Next week, 2nd October also is a holiday on account of Gandhi Jayanthi.

Thursday, September 24, 2009

Short covering helps Nifty close with gains.

After Wednesday's Federal Reserve meeting Dow Jones was 80 points down in the morning, most of the Asian markets were down and Singapore Nifty was down around 50 points. Therefore a gap down opening was expected today (24-9-09)and Nifty opened at 4913 with a loss of 57 points, it further moved down to 4904 (11.00), moved in the range 4926 - 4953 up to 14.30. As the Europian markets opened in red and were weakening, traders expected downward movement in Nifty. But, at 15.00 Nifty moved up to 4970 and did not show any weakness. Then traders saw Nifty surging to 5017 within two minutes, which might have been the result of short covering, as today was the settlement day for September series. Later Nifty moved down slightly and closed at 4987 with a gain of 17 points.
Today's special effect: Please observe today's Nifty chart closely. It can be seen that Nifty didn't open gap down as stated above. It opened at 5002 with a gain of 32 points. But it may be just a flash at the opening and Nifty futures did not reflect that up move - its high was 4938 only. The interesting point is that Nifty moved to that level before today's closing. Similar feature was observed earlier in individual stocks, but it is the first time it is seen in Nifty.
Today's Nifty futures range was 4996 -4908 having a difference of 88 points. Tomorrow being an exceptional Friday and Agni level decreased to 5023 there may be a buying opportunity when Nifty moves above Agni level, provided Asian markets opening is favorable. Otherwise wait till Nifty moves above Agni level for buys.

Wednesday, September 23, 2009

Nifty back to Friday position

Today (23-9-09) up to 14.45 Nifty moved in the range 5031 - 4995 range without giving any indication of its next move. At 14.20 Nifty was at 5021, by 14.45 it declined to 5000, after came the fast downward move that carried Nifty to 4957 (15.05), and gaining a little it closed at 4970 with a loss of 50 points. Tomorrow's Agni level is at 5040 and that may be the upward limit for tomorrow.

Tuesday, September 22, 2009

Nifty closes above 5000

Today (22-9-09)Nifty opened up at 4989, moved upwards to 5036 (15.05), declined to 5012 and closed at 5020 with a gain of 44 points. Today's closing was above the last high of 5003 achieved on 17th September, 2009 and hence 5120 may be achieved earlier than expected. Though Nifty moved up to 5036 it did not touch the Agni level at 5038. Tomorrow's Agni level is at 5070 and Nifty may not cross that level tomorrow.

Monday, September 21, 2009

Avarohan(descent) to start soon ?

On going through the data from January 2009, it was noted that Nifty futures daily high-low minimum difference was 48, average 96 and maximum 192. In some eventful days the difference had crossed 192 and it were 365 & 433 on 18th & 19th May 2009 on account of formation of new UPA Goverment and 362 on 6th July,2009 due to the fall on Budget day. It was also noted that from 24-2-09 to 4-3-09 and from 6-3-09 to 20-3-09 the difference was less than 96. Similarly, for the last nine continuous days from 8-9-09 to 18-9-09 the difference was below 96. On 9th March 2009, the day on present Arohan (ascent)started, Nifty was at 10 times of lower Shadjam frequency ie. 256 x 10 = 2560. Now Nifty is around 10 times of upper Shadjam frequency ie. 512 x 10 = 5120. Normally, in carnatic music Arohan(ascent)is Sa, Ri, Ga, Ma, Pa, Dha, Ni, Sa and Avarohan (descent)is Sa, Ni, Dha, Pa, Ma, Ga, Ri, Sa. The ratio of frequency of lower Shadjam (Sa) and the upper Shadjam (Sa) is 1:2. That's why the ratio of 2560 and 5120 is 1:2. Hence, if NIfty follows the carnatic music pattern, it has to start its descent from 5120. It is expected that Nifty may oscillate between 4859 to 5008 range up to Thursday and move to 5120 on Exceptional Friday the 25th September, 2009. Let us wait and see what happens.

Saturday, September 19, 2009

Friday Nifty closed at Agni level

Friday(18-9-09)Nifty opened 25 points lower than Thursday close and moved mostly in negative territory within a range +3 and -12 up to 12.00, declined to 4932(12.30)loss of 34 points, moved up to 4981 and closed at 4976(Agni level for the day was 4977). Nifty futures range was also the lowest at 47 (4989 - 4942). Earlier lowest was 48 on 20th March 2009 and 14th September 2009. Tuesday's Agni level is at 5038 and Nifty is unlikely to touch it.

Thursday, September 17, 2009

Nifty in Anthara Gandharam - 2nd day

Today (17-9-09) Nifty opened gap up at 4993 with a gain of 35 points, moved up to 4998 (10.05) crossing the target of 4992, declined to 4975(10.25), moved up again to 5003(11.00) to touch Soma level at 5006, gradually declined to negative territory as expected up to 4944(13.10). Later, it moved up again to 4986(15.05) and declined to 4949 at closing time. On averaging Nifty closed flat at 4966, again at the centre of Anthara Gandharam. But, today's closing is below the Agni level for tomorrow at 4977. So, as usual exit longs and go short if Nifty does not move above Agni level.
Today, Nifty futures range was 5011 - 4955, a difference of 56 points which is exactly divisible by 8.

Wednesday, September 16, 2009

Nifty in the centre of Anthara Gandharam

As expected in the yesterday post, Nifty reached the centre of Anthara Gandharam today (16-9-09) and closed at 4958 with a gain of 66 points. Nifty opened at 4950 with a gain of 58 points, discarded gains to touch 4919(11.00), moved in between 4926 - 4949 up to 14.25, declined to 3932(14.52)and zoomed to 4966 at the closing to rest at the centre of Anthara Gandharam (4960). Tomorrow it may not move above 4992 and may decline a little to the negative territory.

Now NSE site shows that Nifty PE is at 22.03. Today morning it showed 21.66 only even after yesterday's gain of 83 points. Perhaps NSE is yet to update it. Let it be the present PE of 22.03. Nandi used to say that it cannot go beyond 22 and above 22 experts say it is a bubble. Is it a bubble ? After the release of advance tax payment data of some of the Nifty constituents, the increase in earnings and the resultant PE for October 09 can be worked out. Definitely that may be less than 22 and hence justifies the up move in the last two days.

Tuesday, September 15, 2009

Nifty in Anthara Gandharam

As expected, today (15-9-09) Nifty moved upwards and closed in Anthara Gandharam bandwidth. Nifty opened with a gain of 41 points at 4850 and moved upwards steadily up to 4891(12.00). Thereafter up to 14.00 moved within the range 4870 to 4886, moved downwards to 4864 (14.35), and moved to 4899 at the closing. On averaging Nifty closed at 4892 with a gain of 83 points. Nifty may move to centre of Anthara Gandharam (4960) tomorrow.

Monday, September 14, 2009

Nifty closes below Agni level - 3rd day

Today (14-9-09) Nifty moved in a very narrow range from 4786 to 4821 and closed the day at 4809 with a loss of 21 points. Nifty futures range was also lowest (4838 - 4790),just 48 points. Nifty surged from 4806 to 4821 in the last half an hour and Nifty futures premium surged from 1 point to 15 points which indicates short covering. Tomorrow's Agni level is at 4859 only and it seems Nifty may break that level and move to Anthara Gandharam level (Low: 4859, Centre: 4960, High: 5123). Therefore cover shorts and go long once Nifty moves above Agni level.

Sunday, September 13, 2009

Nifty closes flat below Agni level - 2nd day

On friday (11-9-09) Nifty range was less than Thursday ie. 4856 - 4792 compared to 4889 - 4808 on Thursday. Further both high and low declined. Even though Agni level also declined, it is still at 4895, higher than the high on 10th Semptember, 2009.
Next week either (1)Nifty should go down and drag Agni level downwards or (2)Nifty should move upwards above Agni level or (3)a mix of both. As Nifty PE Ratio on 11th September 2009 is at 21.70 Nandi prefers the first(1). But, around Surya level (4696) Nifty may bounce back and pave way for last(3)possibility. Let us wait and see.

Thursday, September 10, 2009

Nifty closes flat at Gandharam (R18A13)

Today (10-9-09) Nifty's direction was down as expected, but not exactly. Based on global cues Nifty opened at 4889 with a gain of 75 points, near Agni level(4884), which was not anticipated at all. There after it moved downwards to 4821(13.15), moved up to 4860(14.40), again came down to 4804(15.30)and closed at 4819 on averaging. If we take the position at 15.30 it was 4804 only, a loss of 10 points. That's why the comment "down as expected, but not exactly". Tomorrow's Agni level is at 4917 and Nifty is unlikely to touch it. Expect the continuation of the down move tomorrow also.

Wednesday, September 9, 2009

Nifty closes below tomorrow's Agni level

Today's (9-9-09) Nifty range was + or - 20 points from yesterday closing ie. 4791 - 4825, which was less than yesterday. It did not move below the Agni level for the day at 4788 and closed at 4814 with a gain of just 9 points. As tomorrow's Agni level is at 4884 the Nifty closing is below the Agni level. So, expect a down move in Nifty.

Tuesday, September 8, 2009

Nifty closes the day with 22 points gain.

Today (8-9-09) Nifty completed Sa Ri Ma Ga Pa Da Ni Sa (256 points) in daily scale that started from 4th September,2009. At 4842 (14.00) came profit booking - can it be called as a sell off ? - which pushed down NIfty to 4785, down 57 points. At the closing, Nifty was at 4805 and Nifty PE Ratio was 21.59. Experts are of the opinion that the maximum P/E can be 22 only and above 22 it is a bubble and bubble will not be formed in successive years. That is why Nandi told that Nifty can go to the top of Gandharam at 4859 only. Incidentally today's Soma level was just below that at 4852 and Nifty's high was 4842. As Arohan (upmove) has almost completed avarohan (downmove) may start very soon. Tomorrow's Agni level is at 4788 and you know what to do when Nifty slides below that level.

Monday, September 7, 2009

Hold the longs till Nifty slides below Agni level.

At the closing today (7-9-09) Nifty PE is 21.49 and expected sell of didn't took place. So, Nifty rallied past 4759 and closed the day at 4783 with a gain of 103 points. Soma level for the day was at 4779 and Nifty's high was 4790. As Nifty has moved past centre point of Gandharam (4759)it may move to the end of Gandharam at 4859 tomorrow. Soma level for tomorrow is at 4852 and Agni level at 4687. Hold the longs till Nifty slides below Agni level.

Saturday, September 5, 2009

Full moon & Exceptional Friday effect - 117 point gains

Last Friday (4-9-09) was, as pointed out on Thursday's post, not only a Full moon day but also an Exceptional Friday. This was the first time after the postings started in "vipanisangeetham" both of the above two coincided in one day and made net effect guessing. However, the presumptions arrived at on the basis of reasons mentioned therein proved right. On 4th September,2009 Nifty opened at 4618 with a gain of 24 points, declined to 4580 (12.15), surged up 117 points to touch the Soma level at 4697(14.25)and closed the day at 4680 with a gain of 86 points. Now, Nifty closing is in Gandharam band width and again selling will creep in while it attempts to reach the centre point of Gandharam at 4759. Till then, move with the trend with both eyes on Agni level.

Thursday, September 3, 2009

Nifty in Chatusruti Rishabham

Today(3-9-09),up move was expected and Nifty opened at 4647 with a gain of 39 points, but the gain was eroded within 30 minutes. Nifty swayed around Agni level at 4633 till 15.00, thereafter a down move to 4581 and closing at 4594 (in Chatusruti Rishabham band) with a loss of 14 points. As the Nifty closing today is above the Agni level for tomorrow at 4566, it is an indication to buy or go long. Tomorrow is a full moon day which always favors a trend reversal - generally with a downward bias. But tomorrow it may be a different case due to the following reasons:
a)Market is not in top ; for the last 4 days it was declining
b)As all the days in this week Nifty closed with a loss it is an Exceptional Friday
c)Market need not be down in all full moon days - it can move up also.
Therefore Nifty need not move downwards tomorrow. So, trade with caution.

Wednesday, September 2, 2009

Nifty may start to move up again.

Today (2-9-09), though Nifty opened with a loss of 48 points, that was covered within 10 minutes and thereafter moved in the range + or - 25 points from the yesterday closing (4650-4603)and finally closed with a loss of 17 points at 4608, near the low of Gandharam. As Nifty stays in Gandharam itself even after three days fall and Agni level has reduced from 4795 to 4633 very near to the Nifty closing to day it seems that Nifty may now move up again. So, it is again a buy when Nifty moves above 4633.

Tuesday, September 1, 2009

Wish U all a Happy Onam - ഓണാശംസകള്‍

Tomorrow is the festival of Onam, a remembrance celebration of bygone golden days that were in this land - God's own country, when King Mahabhali ruled, and a wish (may be an everlasting wish)it will come during the next year. Wish you all a very very Happy Onam.

Today(1-9-09) as expected, Nifty bounced back and covered entire losses of yesterday when it touched 4736 (+74 points) at 12.50. But it did not move above the Agni level at 4743. Then came one of the sell off which Nandi was talking about recently which pushed Nifty down to 4600 (loss of 136 points within 100 minutes)and closing of Nifty at 4625 with a loss of 37 points. Remember "No longs or new purchases when Nifty is below the Agni level". Tomorrow's Agni level is at 4685. Also note that the next full moon is on 4th September and the fall will gain momentum near full moon days.