Monday, January 31, 2011

Nifty closes flat after volatile movement

Today(31-1-11)Nifty opened at 5433 with a loss of 79 points, moved up and down in the range 5417 - 5527 and closed at 5506 with a loss of 6 points. Nifty futures range was 5438 - 5545, a difference of 107 points. Tomorrow's Agni level is at 5470, below Nifty close today. Avoid shorts when Nifty is above the Agni level.

Friday, January 28, 2011

Nifty touches low of M2(5464) and bounces 67 points

Today(28-1-11) Nifty opened at 5582 with a loss of 22 points, moved up to 5610, moved down steadily to touch low of M2(5464)as mentioned in the post dated 16-1-11 under the caption "Highest volatility on Makara Sankranti Day", bounced back 67 points(5527)on Exceptional Friday effect and closed at 5512 with a loss of 92 points. Nifty futures range was 5485 - 5622, having a difference of 137 points. Monday's Agni level is at 5572.

Next move of Nifty can be assessed only after viewing Monday movements. However, if Nifty goes below 5464 next stop is centre of M1( 5286). Possibility of Nifty moving to Shadjam (3968) during April/May 2011 is improving. Please see the post "Ma" of "PaHiMa" ? dated 28 - 11 - 2010.

Don't miss the beautiful story posted on 29th January 2011 in Ilangoji's blog

See this on Fibonacci numbers

Thursday, January 27, 2011

Nifty closes at 5600 level

Today(27-1-11) Nifty opened at 5725 with a gain of 38 points, steadily descended to 5595 and closed at 5604 with a loss of 83 points. Nifty futures range was 5715 -> 5597, a difference of 118 points. Tomorrow being an Exceptional Friday a 50 to 100 points upward move is required. But,last month it was missing and hence now uncertain. Tomorrow's Agni level is at 5661. Never hold longs when Nifty is below the Agni level.

Wednesday, January 26, 2011

Nifty closes below 5700 with a loss of 56 points

On Tuesday(25-1-11) Nifty opened at 5773 with a gain of 30 points, moved to 5802 on announcement of 0.25% repo/reverse repo rate hike by RBI, declined to 5681 and closed at 5687 with a loss of 56 points. Though repo rate hike was on expected lines, further steps to fight inflation was not disclosed. Being F&O settlement day, high volatility can be expected tomorrow also. Tomorrow's Agni level is at 5722.

Monday, January 24, 2011

High volatility expected on 25th & 27th

Today(24-1-11) Nifty opened at 5725 with a gain of 28 points, moved down to 5698, moved up to 5756 and closed at 5743 with a gain of 46 points. Nifty futures range was 5695 - 5760. Tomorrow's Agni level is at 5727. As RBI credit review is due on 25th, 26th is a holiday on account of Republic Day and 27th is F&O settlement day, High volatility expected.

Sunday, January 23, 2011

Volatile week ahead

Last Friday(21-1-11) Nifty opened at 5687 with a loss of 25 points, moved in the range 5675 - 5718 and closed at 5697 with a loss of 15 points. Tomorrow's Agni level is 5711.

Last week Nifty was in a lull mood and Friday(14th) to Friday(21st) closing can be summarised as 5700 plus or minus 40. As tomorrow's Agni level is at 5711 go short if Nifty moves down that level. Go long if Nifty moves above 5756. As it's a F & O settlement week and RBI's credit review is also due Nifty may be highly volatile.

Thursday, January 20, 2011

Nifty surges ninety points & close above 5700

Today(20-1-11)Nifty opened at 5660 with a loss of 31 points, moved up to 5680, slowly moved down to 5635 (Agni level: 5621), moved upward quickly to 5724, later moved to 5729 and closed at 5712 with a gain of 21 points. Nifty futures range was 5632 - 5744, having a difference of 112 points. Tomorrow's Agni level is at 5675.
Gold prices are coming down and Goldbees unit price at current rate is Rs.1950.00.

Wednesday, January 19, 2011

Nifty closes below 5700 & Nifty futures in discount

Today(19-1-11)Nifty opened at 5748 with a gain of 24 points, moved in the range 5709 - 5748 up to 13.00, moved down to 5663 and closed at 5691 with a loss of 33 points. Nifty futures range was 5754 -> 5661 and at today's closing Nifty futures was at a discount. Though tomorrow's Agni level is at 5621, avoid going long. Nifty is likely to slide down to Agni level as was the case last week.

An informative piece on Open interest(O.I). Look at it, it will definitely enrich you.
Soma and Surya levels are being worked out based on O.I in Puts and Calls respectively.

Tuesday, January 18, 2011

Nifty closes @ 5724 , above Agni level

Today(18-1-11)Nifty opened at 5703 with a gain of 48 points, moved in the range 5671 - 5731 and closed at 5724 with a gain of 69 points. Nifty futures range was 5672 - 5742, and the premium varied from 1 point to 18 points. Tomorrow's Agni level is at 5620 and hence Nifty may move upwards to top of M2(5797) and if crossed (with daily average also) Nifty may move to centre of P(5952).

Monday, January 17, 2011

Nothing changed from Friday levels

Today(17-1-11)Nifty opened at 5625 with a loss of 30 points, moved in the range 5624 - 5696 and closed at yesterday's position itself ie. 5655. Nifty futures range was 5629 - 5705, having a difference of 76 points and had occasional movement in discount area. As all the figures including Agni level stands at the same place, nothing to say today also. Go long only if Nifty is above Agni level.

Sunday, January 16, 2011

Highest volatility on Makara Sankranti Day

Friday(14-1-11) was "Makara Sankranti" ie. the day Sun transits to Makara Rasi (Capricorn constellation - Sun @ 270°),one of the most auspicious day in India. "Makara Vilakku" is the most important festival in Sabari Mala temple in Kerala. On that day Nifty exhibited highest volatility ie. 221 points difference between high and low of Nifty futures, never seen in 2010. Nifty opened at 5732 with a loss of 20 points, moved down to 5695, moved up to 5834 (plus 82 points), swiftly moved down to 5640(loss of 194 points from the top of the day) and closed at 5655 with a loss of 97 points on averaging. The low was the centre of M2(5642) which was the level given in yesterday's post. Nifty futures range was 5638 - 5859. Agni level for Monday is at 5656.

Now everybody would be eager to know what next. As Nifty's closing on Friday was at the centre of M2 and also at the Agni level, nothing can be said in advance about the movement of Nifty on Monday. Watch it and move along with it. However, if Nifty moves downwards in coming days next level is 5464 ie. low of M2.
Planetary positions as on Monday, the 17th January 2011 is given below.

Thursday, January 13, 2011

Nifty back to M2

Today(13-1-11)Nifty opened at 5831 with a loss of 32 points, moved in the range 5810 - 5858 up to 12.00, moved down to 5744 and closed at 5752 with a loss of 111 points. Nifty futures range was 5736 - 5869, having a difference of 133 points. Nifty closing so far this year after SuryaGrahan (Solar Eclipse)on 4th January 2011, is given in the chart below. Nifty movements are sluggish during these days. Instead of improving yesterday's positive closing, Nifty discarded the gains made and closed in M2 again. During the last three days, there was huge difference between Nifty opening and Agni level and it was reduced by Nifty's down move. Ideal condition for a buy or sell in Nifty futures is plus or minus 20 points from Agni level. As such huge difference between is really confusing. That is why it was advised yesterday to follow Day Trading Manthra for a buy. Nifty may decline to centre of M2(5642)in coming days. Tomorrow's Agni level is 5646.

Wednesday, January 12, 2011

Nifty closes @ 5863 in P

After 5 days down move and yesterday's flat closing, today(12-1-11)Nifty reversed its trend as expected. Nifty opened at 5816 with a gain of 62 points, moved down to 5711, moved up to 5874 and closed at 5863 with a gain of 109 points in P(Panchamam). Nifty futures range was 5712 - 5885, having a difference of 173 points. Tomorrow's Agni level is at 5651, and Nifty above Agni level is a buy (positional & intraday - for intraday buy, following Day Traders Manthra will be more beneficial).

Tuesday, January 11, 2011

After volatile movement Nifty closes flat

Today(11-1-11) Nifty opened at 5805 with a gain of 42 points, moved in the range Agni level(5794) plus or minus 32 points up to 13.30, moved up to 5843(+ 80 points) exactly at 13.30 and at 15.00 moved swiftly down to 5698 ( - 65 points)to be recovered immediately to 5808. On averaging Nifty closed flat at 5754. Nifty futures range was 5700 - 5842 having a difference of 142 points. As tomorrow's Agni level is at 5678 only (ie. 76 points below today's Nifty closing)Nifty may move upwards.

Nifty closes in M2

Today(10-1-11) Nifty closed at 5763 with a loss of 142 points in M2( Low: 5464, Centre: 5642, High: 5797). Tomorrow's Agni level is at 5794 and hence avoid long when Nifty is below Agni level.

Friday, January 7, 2011

Nifty closes @ 5905, below centre of P(5952)

Today(7-1-11) Nifty opened at 6030 with a loss of 18 points, moved up to 6051, declined to 5977 - 6000 range till 13.00, moved down swiftly to 5884(- 164 points) and closed at 5905 with a loss of 143 points. Nifty average today was 5967 ie. centre of P(5952). Nifty futures range was 5891 - 6072. Monday's Agni level is at 5968 which is incidentally average of today. Go long when Nifty moves above Agni level.

Last four days decline is similar to last months decline ( see chart below)

Note: Nandi is on a tour from Saturday to Monday. Hence today's post. Monday's post may be delayed. As advised in January 2 post, go by figures only - nothing else.

Thursday, January 6, 2011

Nifty closes at 6048 with a loss of 32 points

Today(6-1-11)Nifty opened at 6116 with a gain of 36 points, moved steadily down to 6022, recovered up to 6059 and closed at 6048 with a loss of 32 points. Nifty futures range was 6134 -> 6046, having a difference of 88 points. Tomorrow's Agni level is at 6104 and go long when Nifty crosses Agni level. For traders having risk aptitude can go long when Nifty moves above 6069.

Wednesday, January 5, 2011

Nifty closes @ 6080 with a loss of 66 points

Today(5-1-11), as anticipated in the Sunday (2-1-11)post Nifty opened weak at 6123 with a loss of 23 points, moved downwards up to 6262(84 points loss) and closed at 6080 with a loss of 66 points. Nifty futures range was 6087 - 6151, having a difference of 64 points. Tomorrow's Agni level is at 6169.

RAHU-KETU in Indian astrology

"News:- Surya Grahan 2011: New Year Starts with Solar Eclipse Today
Surya Grahan 2011 - The New Year starts with a partial Solar eclipse that can be watched today, the 4th January, 2011 from the northern part of the country besides Europe, the Arabian peninsula, North Africa and Western Asia.

Retired Professor of the Indian Institute of Astro Physics, R C Kapoor said, the partial Solar eclipse will starts in at 12.10 pm and end at 4.30 pm on January, 2011.

Mr Kapoor said, in India, the eastern fringe of the penumbral shadow of the Moon passes over Kutch, parts of Gujarat, Rajasthan, Haryana, UP, Delhi, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh and Jammu and Kashmir. In Delhi, the eclipse will begin at 3.11 pm and will end at 3:52 pm."

As per mythological stories, Solar Eclipse happens when Rahu swallows Sun. As Rahu has "head only" eclipse ends when Sun comes out through throat part.

According to legend,(retold in many puranas)the demon by name Swarbhanu stealthily got into the midst of gods and had a share of nectar which was capable of making the eater immortal. This was found out by the Sun and the Moon who brought it to the notice of Vishnu. Vishnu cut the head of the demon as an act of reprimand,which however resulted in the head becoming Rahu (the head with the body of the snake)and the body becoming Ketu (the body with the snake’s head).

This is how the birth of Rahu and Ketu is explained in scriptures.

What is really Rahu - Ketu ?
Take a bucket full of water and consider the level of water as the plane where the Earth circles around the Sun. Take a dinner plate and mark the centre of it as Earth - circular edge is the orbit of the Moon and the surface of the plate is the plane Moon circles around the Earth. Now dip the plate in to the water in a slight inclined position (23°) till the centre of the plate touches water level. Mark the two points where edge of the plate touches water level; these two points are Rahu - Ketu described in Indian astrology. Eclipses can happen only when Moon is at any one of that two points and it is a Solar Eclipse on a new-moon day and Lunar Eclipse on a full moon day . You can visualise that Rahu - Ketu will be always in 180° when viewed from the Earth and both(Rahu-Ketu) cannot be liberated. That's why it is considered as "one" in above stories. Indian Rishi's had great knowledge of the things happening in the universe. And it was acquired by observation only - with out any advanced instruments of the modern world.

Tuesday, January 4, 2011

Nifty close in P( ie. below 6154) & below Agni level

Today(4-1-11)Nifty opened at 6181 with a gain of 23 points, moved to negative territory as anticipated to 6124, moved up to 6177, again moved down to 6133 and closed at 6146 with a loss of 12 points, below the Agni level(6196). Nifty futures range was 6147 - 6210. Tomorrow's Agni level is at 6210 and Nifty may slide down further - also refer Sunday post.

Monday, January 3, 2011

Nifty closes in D1 (above 6154)

Today(3-1-11)the first trading day of 2011, Nifty opened at 6179 with a gain of 44 points, moved in the range 6147 - 6179 and closed at 6158 with a gain of 23 points, D1(Sudha Daivatham ie. above 6154). Nifty futures range was 6175 - 6207, having a premium of 28 points. Tomorrow's Agni level is at 6196.

Tomorrow, if Nifty moves above 6184 - 6196 a move towards 6300 in coming days can be expected. Otherwise Nifty may move to negative territory.

Sunday, January 2, 2011

Waiting for the first trading day of the New Year 2011

Verily, you were waiting for the views on the first trading day of the New Year 2011. Many technical analysts has already given their predictions and fantastic stories. Nandi's advice for the new year is "Never trade on stories, trade on figures". Stories can be very beautiful and it creates hope. But hopes, most of the time never materialises in the market. Nandi compares the movement of stock market similar to a journey in a small boat. When ever majority leans on one side, boat capsizes and journey takes unexpected turns. For journey to be smooth travelers should take their position equally on both sides. So, when ever there is significant imbalance keep away from majority.

Agni level for Monday, the first trading day of the year is at 6135 which is the closing figure of 2010. Hence, cues for Monday should come from Asian markets. So waiting for tomorrow with a clean slate. As Moon conjuncts with Mars on 5th a minor down move can be expected. Nothing more now. That's why this post was delayed today.