Friday, December 9, 2016

3M - Music, Mathmatics and Market(stock)

Given below the article published in the Business Line dated December 9, 2016 which explains 3M as Music, Mathematics and Marketing. Verily, "Vipanisangeetham" was trying to establish the relationship of the same 3M as Music, Mathematics and Market(stock). So, read keenly the replies given by Carnatic music maestro Padma Vibhushan Umayalpuram K Sivaraman to further your understanding.

Marketing today is on the threshold of change. In the past, marketing as we knew it was largely dominated by 30-second TV spots and other mass media such as print, outdoor, radio and so on. The number-crunching only came into play while deciding which medium to back in the advertising campaign and for what price to buy the media.

But, look around today and there are the likes of Google, Facebook, Twitter and others who apply complex algorithms such as Page Rank, Adsense, marketing mix modelling, content marketing and so on along with technology (analytics, digital marketing, search engine optimisation (SEO) and search engine marketing (SEM) to make marketing a lot more data-driven. Similarly, in music the magic of maths plays a huge role.

As a musician, Padma Vibhushan Umayalpuram K Sivaraman has an accomplished career of nearly 71 years – he debuted at the age of 10 and has been seen and played with the best musicians across the years. His son has been one of the earliest adopters of marketing analytics in India. cat.a.lyst brings you a conversation between the legendary mridangam vidwan and his son S Swaminathan, Co-Founder & CEO of Hansa Cequity, a major customer marketing & analytics firm, on the cross-learnings from music, maths and marketing.

Swami: When I started in marketing, it was largely a right-brained creative profession. One came up with a marketing strategy, ad campaign, below-the-line programmes and everything revolved around it. But, now a lot of mathematics is being used in marketing. Music, similarly, is thought to be a creative profession, but there is a lot of maths inside to enhance the sweet notes that emanate from great musicians.

Umayalpuram K Sivaraman: When you play a solo, there is a lot of mathematics at play. But you have to present it better, you have to simplify mathematics for the common man.

The innate intelligence in the music of yesteryear is quite amazing. Music is a manipulation and combination of mathematical patterns extending a vast area where you can bring in creativity. Similarly, when you take ragas , it’s said that there are about 24,000 ragas and there are thousands of varieties of talas . By permutations and combinations of these swaras , the masters were able to evolve a great repertoire in the art of music. Mathematics played a greater part in the production of thousands of ragas and talas .

Swami: You can use complicated maths when you play music but play it simply to soothe the ears. In our business in marketing, we can build complex analytical models. But, to reach the clients and get their attention, we should present it simply as they are not interested in statistics but insights and outcomes.

UKS: It’s akin to a rasika (fan/connoisseur) who is enjoying the beautiful music that flows from the musicians that is fused together with different ragas and talas and gives the listener a lot of joy. As an artist, you may know a lot of things, but you have to be like the orator who can convey the message to the common people with ease.

Swami: Similarly, in our business, we hire a lot of statisticians. The problem is that they do a lot of mathematical analyses that the person on the other side does not understand. So, we have to present it simply for everyone to grasp. Music provides a lot of inspiration.

UKS: Complications arise only from simple things. In our tala system there is chatusra (four), thisra (three), misra (seven), kanda (five) and sankeerna (nine). All of this is permutation and combination. Four is a permanent number. Reduce one to get three and then add four, it becomes seven. Cut four into two and add three, it becomes five and then add four and five to make it sankeerna . When you go to the core – when you play four, there is no three. When you play three, there is no four. From four everything emanates and into four everything vanishes.

Swami: Analysts in our business talk about techniques such as logistic regression, machine learning, artificial intelligence (AI) and so on. But, the truth is, you need to understand the foundation of business, and, of course, statistics, to explain the variables and their effects. It needs be explained lucidly with the marketing impact that it can have on a business. How did that regression work, how do you predict that some customer will buy, somebody will churn, somebody will renew his subscription or policy, and so on. Again, it may be complicated techniques used, but one needs to understand the foundation and present it in a simple manner to clients.

UKS: Music is also about understanding the pulse of the people. There was a time when a single concert would run for almost 5-6 hours. Then, people wanted a variety – so the musicians of those days such as Ariyakudi Ramanuja Iyengar from Carnatic music or Hindustani stalwarts such as Pandit Ravishankar presented different varieties that pleased a lot of people. In a national programme, Ariyakudi had the capability to compress all of this into 90 minutes.

All marketing strategies keep changing with changing customer attitudes. So we have to change along with the requirements of the people.

Swami: In marketing too, you identify the need and then deliver the solution and keep adapting them over time. That’s the key. Today, we have short videos and the ability to measure them too. The other important thing that we keep talking today is that marketing is all about storytelling and conversations. Music is also about conversations.

There are many times when silence is music. So, marketing messages also need to have what we call contact policy, meaning how many times ideally should brands touch a customer in this era of pervasive digital marketing. So, one needs to balance the art and science of marketing to be successful.

UKS: In music you call it vishranti , where the musician gives some pauses. We should allow people to react, whether they are appreciating and liking all the things that we are offering. The economic theory of diminishing marginal utility comes into play. It always sounds good when it is served right to their ears – not too much, not too little! Whenever there is some expectation, one must stop there.

While accompanying KVN (KV Narayanaswamy, one of the legendary Carnatic musicians of this era), I just kept the rhythm – no complicated mathematics and fast phrases. There were lyrical beauties, where you must allow the audience to enjoy the lyrics. And then you must give a pause and re-enter with a bang.

When you do that, people will acknowledge your presence. But, the important point is you must know when to enter, when to play, when not to play, how to play and impress – these are all strategies that many musicians deploy.

Swami: There is a lot analytics can learn from music. We should not complicate when it can be done simply. Also, knowing when to apply simple descriptive analysis to make the point and when to apply predictive analysis is important. In analytics, we do a lot of predictive modelling – what is this customer going to buy, how do we optimise the pricing or cross-sell to, and such.

(To be concluded)

This is the first in a series where music meets marketing.

Wednesday, December 7, 2016

RBI Governor Urjit Patel's first credit Policy - 2.30 pm

RBI governor Urjit Patel and MPC shocked analysts and markets by keeping the repo rate unchanged at 6.25%. “The decision of the MPC is consistent with an accommodative stance of monetary policy in consonance with the objective of achieving consumer price index (CPI) inflation at 5 per cent by Q4 of 2016-17 and the medium-term target of 4 per cent within a band of +/- 2 per cent, while supporting growth,” the policy statement said. Six members voted in favour of the monetary policy decision.
The move not to cut repo rate comes as a big surprise since most economists were of the view that post demonetisation, RBI would be compelled to cut rates. This is the first monetary policy review after Modi government’s demonetisation step and the fifth bi-monthly monetary policy statement for 2016-17. The decision comes at a time when India’s GDP grew at 7.2% versus 7.6% YoY in the second quarter of the current financial year. The Narendra Modi government on November 8 announced that all old Rs 500 and Rs 1000 notes will cease to legal tender money. The move was aimed at rendering black money useless. However, with a huge amount of money being withdrawn from circulation(86%), there is a near-unanimous view that the short-term impact on growth would be harmful.

Thursday, December 1, 2016

Grahanila(Planetary positions) as on 1st Dec 2016

As on 1st December 2016 Sun & Saturn in Scorpio, Venus & Mercury & Moon in Sagitarius, Mars in Capricorn, Ketu in Aquarius, Rahu in Leo and Jupiter in Virgo. The above planetary positions is having a distinctive feature. All planets are in between Rahu & Ketu leaving one side (180°) empty from 4th September 2016 to 28th December 2016 (except on dates when Moon moves to other side) and astrologers call it "KALA SARPA YOGA". "Yoga" means assembly. "Kala Sarpa" written in English is having two meanings in Malayalam since "la(ല)" and "la(ള)" are different. First meaning is "time serpent" and other "black or deadly serpent". In India, perpetual nature of time has been represented as a circle of two serpents having their tails in the mouth of the other(in China it is dragons instead of serpents). As Rahu and Ketu are considered head and tail, all Grahas(Sun, Moon & 5 planets) are now inside a serpent and hence the name. The second meaning is having ill effects and troubles including death. As there is imbalance in the solar system (all Grahas are in one side of Rahu-Ketu), high volatility and swift downward movement in the market is expected (it's said "as above, so below"). The last Kala Sarpa Yoga period was from 13-5-13 to 25-9-13. Mercury is in retrograde from 19th December 2016 to 8th January 2017 and usually a downward move of 250-300 points in Nifty is to take place. But, during the period when Venus and Mars in same rasi which is a positive factor may influence the market.

Planetary transits in December: 16th Sun -> Sagitarius, 2nd Venus -> Capricorn, 11th Mars -> Aquarius and 28th Venus -> Aquarius.
The planetary positions given above are at the time of Sunrise in India(Kerala) and Moon's conjunction effect on markets may be seen in countries (Asia / Europe / US) where trading take places at the time of conjunction(10° - 0°). When the angular difference between the Moon and the planet at Sunrise is more than 5 degrees and/or conjunction occurs in Rasis(constellations) other than the Sun's Rasi, there may be a delay up to 24 hours in the conjunction effect according to their positions {Note: expect only eighty percent accuracy in assumptions based on Moon's conjunction with Mars(-), Venus(-) and Jupiter(+) as some other astro factors may also influence the market}. Conjunction dates can be had from the table above.

Wednesday, November 30, 2016

Nifty during November 2016

RSI :Besides other technical details, for Nandi RSI is the percentage of buyers in the market at a given time. All buyers or all sellers (RSI 100 or O) is not at all practical, since there must be some one to sell for any body to buy. Therefore, whenever RSI increases to 85-95 market slows down and early buyers turns sellers and market corrects. Similarly when RSI decreases to 5-15 early sellers turns buyers and market moves up. So, take advantage on both of these occasions by watching RSI.

Saturday, November 26, 2016

Super Exceptional Friday

As Moon was nearest with the Earth which occures once in 60 years, last full moon was the largest Super Moon. Similarly last Exceptional Friday was "Super Exceptional Friday" with a gain of 149 points against normal 50 to 100 points upmove from the low on Exceptional Fridays. The additional factors contributed to this phenomenon was a) Nifty daily RSI was below 30 and b) Moon was in conjunction with Jupiter. Yesterday's Nifty figures are: Open 8007.95,High 8122.25, Low 7976.75,Close 8114.30.

Wednesday, November 9, 2016

Nifty's reaction on Trump elected as US President

Today (9th November 2016) Nifty opened at 8068(-476), moved further down to 8002(-542), recovered up to 8476(-68) and closed at 8432(-112). Mr. Donald Trumps victory in US Presidential election and Modi's strategic strike on black money, both contributed to this fall.