Tuesday, January 31, 2012

Nifty closes in M1 again

Today(31-1-12)Nifty moved just opposite of yesterday and after erasing all yesterday loses closed at 5200, in M1 again. Spot Nifty and Nifty futures ranges were 5120 - 5215 (Agni level was 5213) and 5130 - 5234 (a difference of 104 points)respectively. Tomorrow's Agni level is at 5217 and Nifty may move to centre of M1(5286).

Please Note: Due to unavoidable circumstances, Nandi is not able to attend the market regularly and hence this type of daily comments may not be posted until situation improves.

Monday, January 30, 2012

Nifty reverses to G2 and closes below Agni level

Today(30-1-12)Nifty opened at 5166 with a loss of 39 points, till noon moved in the range 5129 - 5165, after 12:00 moved down swiftly to 5077 and closed at 5087 with a loss of 118 points. Nifty futures range was 5190 -> 5101, having a difference of 89 points. As Nifty close is in G2(Top:5123) and below Agni level Nifty may move to centre of G2(4960). Tomorrow's Agni level is at 5213.

Sunday, January 29, 2012

Nifty closes above 5200

On Friday(27-1-12)Nifty opened at 5217 with a gain of 59 points, moved in the range 5162 - 5208 and closed at 5205 with a gain of 47 points. Nifty futures range was 5172 - 5225, having a difference of 53 points. On Monday Nifty may try to move to centre of M1(5286) provided global cues are positive. As tomorrow's Agni level is at 5226 exit longs if Nifty remains below it.

Thursday, January 26, 2012

Nifty closes in M1

On Wednesday (25-1-12), a F&O settlement day (26th Thursday being a holiday on account of Republic Day) Nifty opened at 5160 with a gain of 33 points, moved in the range 5130 - 5174 and closed at 5158, in M1 (Bottom: 5123, Centre: 5286, Top: 5464) with a gain of 31 points. Nifty futures range was 5130 - 5177, having a difference of 47 points. If Nifty remains in M1 tomorrow also expect Nifty to reach 5286 shortly. Tomorrow's Agni level is at 5184.

Tuesday, January 24, 2012

Nifty closes at top of G2 &@ 20 x ( 20 x 256 = 5120)

RBI announcement of 50 basis point cut in CRR lifted Nifty 100 points and close at top of G2 and at 20x (ie. 20 x 256 = 5120). Today(24-1-12)Nifty opened at 5072 with a gain of 26 points, moved in the range 5052 - 5066 till RBI announcement at 11.00 am, surged to 5141 by 12.25 and closed at 5127 with a gain of 81 points. Nifty futures range was 5049 - 5150, having a difference of 101 points. Tomorrow's Agni level is at 5150.

Monday, January 23, 2012

Nifty closes flat at 5046

Today(23-1-12)Nifty opened at 5021 with a loss of 28 points, moved up to 5060, descended to 5030 and closed at 5046 with a loss of 2 points. Nifty futures also moved in a narrow range 5034 - 5062, having a difference of 28 points only. Tomorrow, being a RBI credit policy review day high volatility is excepted. Agni level is at 5097.

Sunday, January 22, 2012

Nifty closes at 5049

On Friday(20-1-12)Nifty opened at 5051 with a gain of 33 points, moved down to 5004, surged 60 points within 15 minutes and closed at 5049 with a gain of 31 points. Nifty futures range was 5006 - 5065, having a difference of 59 points. Today Nifty reached and closed @5056 (see table), anticipated in the post dated 17th Jan. As Monday being a new Moon Day (1st day of Chinese Lunar Year) trend reversal can also happen. Agni level for tomorrow is at 5092.

Thursday, January 19, 2012

Nifty closes above 5000

Today(19-1-12)Nifty opened at 4995 with a gain of 39 points, moved up to 5024 and closed at 5018 with a gain of 62 points. Nifty futures range was 4991 - 5027, having a difference of 36 points only which makes F&O day trading difficult. Tomorrow's Agni level is at 5031.

Wednesday, January 18, 2012

Nifty closes at centre of G2(4960) again

Today(18-1-12)Nifty opened at 4981 with a gain of 14 points, moved in the range 4931 - 4976 and closed at 4956, centre of G2(4960)again. Nifty futures range was 4934 - 4983, having a difference of 49 points. Tomorrow's Agni level is at 4978.

Tuesday, January 17, 2012

Nifty closes at centre of G2(4960)

Today(17-1-12)Nifty moved up steadily after opening at 4905 and closed at 4967, at centre of G2(4960) as anticipated in Saturday post. Nifty and Nifty futures range were 4905 - 4976 and 4913 - 4988 respectively. Nifty may move up to 5056. Agni level for tomorrow is at 4936.

Monday, January 16, 2012

Nifty closes with 8 points gain

Today(16-1-11)Nifty opened at 4850 with a loss of 16 points, moved in the range 4827 - 4859 up to 13:30, thereafter moved up to 4881 and closed at 4874 with a gain of 8 points. Nifty futures range was 4835 - 4900, having a difference of 65 points. Tomorrow's Agni level is at 4904.

Note: U.S. markets are closed today in observance of the Martin Luther King Jr. Day holiday.

Saturday, January 14, 2012

Nifty closes at top of G1 with 35 points gain

On Friday(13-1-12)Nifty opened at 4852 with a gain of 21 points, moved in the range 4834 - 4868 up to 12:30, moved thereafter up to 4899, swiftly moved down to 4838 and closed at 4866, top of G1 with a gain of 35 points. Nifty futures range was 4844 - 4918, having a difference of 74 points. Expected negative closing in Nifty due to planetary conjunction didn't materialise, though there was a swift down move of 61 points and European & American markets closed in red. Next week Nifty may move to Surya level (4960) or Soma level (4700) on the basis of reports. Tomorrow's Agni level is at 4918.

Thursday, January 12, 2012

Nifty closes below Agni level

Today(12-1-12)Nifty touched yesterday's freak figure 4805 in a highly volatile trade. Nifty opened at 4843 with a loss of 18 points and closed at 4831 with a loss of 30 points, below Agni level for the day at 4853. Nifty and Nifty futures ranges were 4804 - 4869 and 4818 - 4888 respectively. As Nifty closing is below Agni level Nifty may move downwards tomorrow. Agni level for tomorrow is at 4873.

Wednesday, January 11, 2012

Nifty closes at top of G1(4859)

Today(11-1-12)Nifty opened at 4863 with a gain of 13 points, moved in the range 4842 - 4877(diff 35 points only)and closed at 4861, at top of G1(4759) with a gain of 11 points(2 points below opening). Nifty futures high and low were constant at 4805 - 4889 through out the day. 4805 is a freak figure since today's Nifty low was 4842 and there was 5 - 10 points premium. Hence in the chart MiniNifty figures ranging 4846 - 4890 were given. Tomorrow's Agni level is at 4853.

Tuesday, January 10, 2012

Nifty closes near top of G1(4859)

Today(10-1-12)Nifty opened at 4768 with a gain of 25 points, steadily moved up to 4856 and closed at 4850, near top of G1(4759) with a gain of 107 points. Nifty futures range was 4780 -> 4874, having a difference of 94 points. Agni level for tomorrow is at 4818.

Monday, January 9, 2012

Nifty closes just below centre of G1

Today(9-1-12)Nifty opened flat at 4748, moved down to 4695, moved up to 4759 and closed at 4743, just below centre of G1(4759) with a loss of 4 points. Though Nifty move was downwards as anticipated, it recovered the loss before closing. Nifty futures range was 4705 - 4778, having a difference of 73 points. Tomorrow's Agni level is at 4788.

Friday, January 6, 2012

Nifty closes at centre of G1 - 4th day

Today(6-1-12)Nifty opened at 4721 with a loss of 29 points, moved down to 4687, moved in the narrow range 4697 - 4722 up to 14:00, moved up quickly to 4795, moved down swiftly to 4737 and closed at 4754 with a gain of 4 points only. Including this day Nifty was closing at centre of G1(4759) consecutively for the last four days. But today's closing is below the Agni level for the day at 4777. Last one and half hours swift moves may be a stage setting for next week. Nifty futures range was 4693 - 4821, having a difference of 128 points. Monday's Agni level is at 4825.

Note: A special session for live trading will be conducted on Saturday, January 07, 2012 from 11:15 to 12:45 to test the improvements in trading software.

Thursday, January 5, 2012

Nifty closes at centre of G1 again

Today(5-1-12)Nifty opened flat at 4749 and closed flat at 4750, at the centre of G1 again. In between it moved in the range 4730 - 4780. Nifty futures range was 4740 - 4792, having a difference of 52 points. As Agni level for tomorrow is at 4777, EXIT longs and go short if Nifty does not move above 4785. It seems that stage is set for the down move next week(refer Grahanila post dated 1st January 2012).

Wednesday, January 4, 2012

Nifty closes at centre of G1

Today(4-1-12)Nifty opened at 4777 with a gain of 12 points and closed at 4750, at centre of G1, with a loss of 15 points. Nifty spot and Nifty futures ranges were 4729 - 4783 and 4738 - 4799 respectively. Agni level for tomorrow is at 4708.

Tuesday, January 3, 2012

Nifty closes above centre of G1(4759)

Today(3-1-12)Nifty opened at 4676 with a gain of 39 points, moved up to 4773 (Soma level for today was 4767) and closed at 4765, above centre of G1(4759) with a gain of 128 points. Nifty futures range was 4681 - 4794, having a difference of 113 points. Mostly, Moon - Jupiter conjunction is favorable to the market and there was one during yesterday/today. As Nifty closed above centre of G1 Nifty may move to 4800 - top of G1(4859). Agni level for tomorrow is at 4639.

Sunday, January 1, 2012

Grahanila(Planetary positions) as on 1st Jan 2012

As on 1st Jan 2012 Sun is in Sagitarius, Venus in Capricornus, Moon in Pisces, Jupiter in Aries, Ketu in Taurus, Mars in Leo, Saturn in Libra and Mercury & Rahu in Scorpio.

Nifty's probable down days are 9th, 13th, 16th and 26th.

Nifty outlook for 2012

Happy New Year to all and Happy trading also. Whether 2012 will be a better year is the question in minds of all investors and traders. Two relevant posts given earlier is reproduced below which is valid in the year 2012 also.
Based on the factors mentioned therein, there are two possibilities:

A. Nifty may move down to 3968 and start its up move from April-May 2012 (Edavam ie. Taurus), on completion of 9 year period (half of Rahu's cycle or Rahu reaches where Ketu was 9 years ago). Incidentally half of Rahu's presence( 18 months in one Rasi) in Scorpio will be over by that time.
Nifty at Shadjam from 2003: 2-Apr-03 -> 993, 15-Apr-05 -> 1987, 16-Apr-07 -> 3968,
18-May-09 -> 3968 Non-Stop (Low 3673; High 4384) as Manmohan Sigh forms UPA govt,
13-Jul-09 -> 3961. In 2011 (as all above years are odd)Nifty didn't move to Shadjam.

B. Nifty may continue to go down like 2008-9 breaching 3968. In that case steady upmove will be from next Christmas (25th December, 2012)only since Rahu/Ketu remains in Scorpio/Aries till that date. That period is very important as present Mayan era (5126 years) ends and new era begins.

Let us wait and see.

Sunday, November 28, 2010
"Ma" of "Pa Hi Ma" (Elliot's corrective waves ABC) ?

On Friday(26-11-10)Nifty closed at 5752 with a loss of 48 points, in M2(Prati Madhyamam Low: 5464, Centre:5642 & Top: 5797). Off course, there was 100 points up move from 5690 to 5812 due to exceptional Friday effect as anticipated. Nifty spot range was 5690 - 5839 where as Nifty futures range was 5727 - 5867. For other details please refer table above. Agni level for tomorrow is at 5737.

The following are wild thoughts. It may or may not happen. However, writing it as feeling is high due to the planetary positions now(see the chart below)- all planets congregate around angles 0, 90, 180 and 270 angles which linked together will draw a cross(+) which is very damaging to the market and also to the whole world. On the above basis it it felt that market after touching a low of 5642 may move up to 5797 or to 5952 and start to fall fast and may move to 2008 lows. "Pahima" in Sanskrit means "save me".If we consider the Nifty move from 6357 - 2252 as "Pa" (corrective wave A)and 2252 - 6339 as "Hi" (wave B) then "Ma" (wave C)has started downwards from 6339 and it may move down to 2252 or more than that. (If Nifty had crossed 2008 high of 6357 this theory would have been invalidated). In April/May of odd years ( 2005, 2007, 2009 etc) Nifty usually moves to S (Shadjam), and in April/May 2011 either it should move to 3968 or 7936. The chances of 3968 cannot be ruled out. Don't be in panic. It's just a feeling and it may take time. Use your favorite TA tools also to trade profitably.

Saturday, September 24, 2011
Hurst cycle , Rahu and the sky signals

Last week when Nandi returned home after an evening walk, wife asked him to clear the bundle of papers lying in the corner of the table for a long time. While sorting out the papers, Nandi came across a paper cutting titled "Grahasangamam" (planetary congregation)in popular Malayalam daily "Mathrubumi". The date of the paper was 6th February, 2009 and it reminded the period when Nifty was at minimum and checking on data it was found that Nifty low was at 2539 on 6th March, 2009. The paper cutting high lighted the most beautiful view in the sky on coming together of Mars, Jupiter, Mercury and the Moon in the Eastern sky just before Sun rise during the period up to April. At that time Sun, Mars, Jupiter and Rahu was in Capricorn. Mercury was nearby in Sagittarius.
On checking the planetary positions on coming months it is seen that during the period from 17th November to 20th November 2011 Sun, Venus, Mercury and Rahu will be in Scorpio and Saturn in nearby Libra. On 21st November Venus will be moving to next constellation Sagittarius. New Moon will be on 25th November and Full Moon on 10th December 2011.
These dates coincide with the 80 week cycle in Hurst cycle theory posted by our friend Shri.Princely.K.Mathew (he is from Kottayam and now working in USA)in his blog "theindianmarketblog" (given as 3rd link on the left side). Extract from his post dated Sunday, September 18, 2011 : "The last 18 month nest of lows came in June end. And the last 40 week low came in March mid time frame. And the last 20 week low came on August 9th. Right now we are in the last 20 week cycle within this 80 week cycle and also with the 4.5 and 9 year cycles. Time frame for the projected 9 year nest of lows shows as around the last week of Dec. But it may extend also. Will see as we get closer. As mentioned before, we got the first 2.5 week cycle low last week Monday/Tuesday in this last 10 week cycle before a major low which expected in November mid time frame."
Since Rahu takes 18 years to complete one cycle and stays 566 days in one Rasi, 9 years, 4.5 years 80 weeks are related to it. As Carnatic music has Sruti(frequency) and Laya(time)factors Nandi was searching for time factor in market. As Sun and Moon has no retrograde and Rahu-Ketu moves in reverse direction only the time factor of market may be related to these astro objects since time doth not run backwards. While posting "Ma of PaHiMa" on 28th November 2010 the time frame was not clear. Now, the feeling is that since "Na Ma Shi Va Ya" (the present bull run)started in April 2003 "Pa Hi Ma" may end in first quarter of 2012 on completion of 9 year period(Rahu-Ketu are two ends of an axis and on 9th year Rahu/Ketu reaches where Ketu/Rahu was). The positive aspect is you can invest confidently when sky exhibits its beauty magnificently. The investment made in February/March 2009 might have got high returns during the up move from March 2009 to November 2010. So, wait for the sky signals for investment.

"AGNI BREAKS OPEN CIPHER" – Nifty Day Traders Manthra (revised)

"AGNI BREAKS OPEN CIPHER" – Nifty Day Traders Manthra (revised)
While trading intra day in Nifty and Mini Nifty, Nandi found that “AGNI BREAKS OPEN CIPHER” Manthra is very helpful to decide upon whether to BUY or SELL and also for putting stop losses. This is a improved Manthra from "AGNI BREAKS OPEN PREMIUM" posted on 13 June 2010.

AGNI – The Agni level being given in vipanisangeetham. If Nifty is above the Agni level, then it is positive. Otherwise negative.

BREAKS – It was earlier explained under the title “Yada Yada Hi Dharmasya”.
For the convenience of new visitors it is explained again.
At the opening of market (9.15 a.m.), 9.20 a.m, 9.30 a.m. and every half an hour there after or whenever there is large swing in the Nifty, note down the maximum and minimum in the Nifty futures(50). Check whether the upper or lower figure is BREAKING. If upper figure is breaking then it is positive and if lower figure is breaking it is negative. After reaching a high or low Nifty may retrace. If the retracement is more than 20 points take the reverse of the last sign.

OPEN – It is the opening figure of Nifty futures(50). If Nifty futures is trading above the opening figure it is positive. Otherwise it is negative.

CIPHER – Cipher means digital zero. If spot Nifty is trading above last day closing it is positive, otherwise negative. When Nifty spot figure is trading same as last day closing figure the difference is zero and hence “cipher”.

The following deductions can be arrived at from the above four indicators.

A. All four positive - the market is bullish and hence go long
B. All four negative – the market is bearish and hence go short.
C. Three positives and one negative – Net positive and hence go long
D. Three negatives and one positive – Net negative and hence go short.
E. Two positives and two negatives – Market is indecisive and hence wait till trend is clear.

This method may be suitable to you or may not be. Observe yourself for a few days and if it suits to you, start trading in Mini Nifty(20) and increase the volume later on. Wish you a bon voyage.

Notes on PREMIUM – Premium is the difference between Nifty futures(50) and Nifty Spot. If Nifty is trading above the spot it is in PREMIUM and hence positive. If Nifty is trading in discount it is negative. During the last six months when down fall continued it was found that premium was absent very rarely and prevented from shorting, hence it was replaced with “cipher”. It was also found that high premium (above) twenty on current months futures was actually negative sign.

Positional trade based on Agni level alone.

When ever spot Nifty is trading above Agni level it is a positive signal and go long.
When ever spot Nifty is trading below Agni level it is a negative signal and go short. When Nifty spot moves from below to above (of Agni level) or from above to below allow eight points before acting upon it, as Agni level is having a band width of sixteen points. After initiating first trade, add to it on stages given below (pyramiding) and book profits at every 100 points gain.

Stages: 6355 – 6192 – 6154 – 6080 – 5952 – 5888 – 5824 – 5797 – 5680 – 5642 – 5555 – 5464 – 5424 – 5376 – 5312 – 5286 – 5168 – 5123 – 5056 – 4960 – 4912 – 4859 – 4800 – 4759 – 4656 – 4612 – 4544 – 4464 – 4348 – 4232 – 4100 – 3968.