Tuesday, November 30, 2010

Nifty slightly up despite negative opening


Today(30-11-10)Nifty opened at 5777 with a loss of 53 points, declined further to 5768 (-62 points) before 12.00, surged to 5892(+62 points)and closed at 5863 with a gain of 33 points. Nifty futures range was 5777 - 5915. Tomorrow's Agni level is at 5753.
No change in the view expressed in Sunday post. Nifty may move to centre of P(5952), but avoid fresh buys for long term.

Monday, November 29, 2010

Nifty closes @ 5830 in P(Panchamam)


Today(29-11-10)after moving in the range 5755 - 5843 Nifty closed at 5830 with a gain of 78 points, in P (Panchamam). Today's Nifty chart was totally distorted due to the pre-market high figure of 6243. It creates confusion and no hence no comments today. Nifty futures range was 5788 - 5864. Tomorrow's Agni level is at 5718.

Sunday, November 28, 2010

"Ma" of "Pa Hi Ma" (Elliot's corrective waves ABC) ?


On Friday(26-11-10)Nifty closed at 5752 with a loss of 48 points, in M2(Prati Madhyamam Low: 5464, Centre:5642 & Top: 5797). Off course, there was 100 points up move from 5690 to 5812 due to exceptional Friday effect as anticipated. Nifty spot range was 5690 - 5839 where as Nifty futures range was 5727 - 5867. For other details please refer table above. Agni level for tomorrow is at 5737.

The following are wild thoughts. It may or may not happen. However, writing it as feeling is high due to the planetary positions now(see the chart below)- all planets congregate around angles 0, 90, 180 and 270 angles which linked together will draw a cross(+) which is very damaging to the market and also to the whole world. On the above basis it it felt that market after touching a low of 5642 may move up to 5797 or to 5952 and start to fall fast and may move to 2008 lows. "Pahima" in Sanskrit means "save me".If we consider the Nifty move from 6357 - 2252 as "Pa" (corrective wave A)and 2252 - 6339 as "Hi" (wave B) then "Ma" (wave C)has started downwards from 6339 and it may move down to 2252 or more than that. (If Nifty had crossed 2008 high of 6357 this theory would have been invalidated). In April/May of odd years ( 2005, 2007, 2009 etc) Nifty usually moves to S (Shadjam), and in April/May 2011 either it should move to 3968 or 7936. The chances of 3968 cannot be ruled out. Don't be in panic. It's just a feeling and it may take time. Use your favorite TA tools also to trade profitably.

Thursday, November 25, 2010

Nifty closes at bottom of P(5797)


Today(25-11-10)also Nifty was highly volatile. Opened at 5900 with a gain of 34 points, Nifty moved in the range 5849 - 5907 up to 13.00, though declined to 5826 at 13.30 by 15.00 it moved up to 5871 and gave the impression that closing will be around 5900 levels. But, the sell off started at 3.00 p.m. shaved off 100 points and Nifty closed at 5800 with a loss of 66 points. Thus Nifty closed today at the lower end of P and below the Agni level. If Nifty slips further it will be M2 area. As tomorrow is an exceptional Friday an up move of 50 to 100 points to materialise. It is to be seen where it closes tomorrow. Nifty futures range was 5909 - 5792. Tomorrow's Agni level is at 5842.

Wednesday, November 24, 2010

Volatality similar to yesterday


Today(24-11-10)Nifty opened at 5951 with a gain of 16 points, moved in the range 5929 - 5977 up to 14.00, moved down to 5834 ( - 101 points) and closed at 5866 with a loss of 66 points(today's Soma level was 5866). Today's 100 points fall was similar to yesterday's. Nifty futures range was 5987 -> 5835, having a difference of 152 points. Tomorrow being a F&O settlement day high volatility expected. Nifty may close around 5900 levels. Tomorrow's Agni level is at 5857.

Tuesday, November 23, 2010

Volatility beyond expectation.


Today's(23-11-10)volatility was beyond expectation - Korean tremors shook the market.
Nifty opened at 5942 with a loss of 68 points, moved between 5937 - 5964 up to 11.30, fall of more than 100 points - up to 5825 - and full recovery, again in the range 5925 - 5950 after 14.30 and closing around the opening level at 5935 with a loss of 75 points. At 15.15 when Nifty was at 5825 Nifty was gone down more than 3%. When ever there was a fall of more than three percent, 8 out of 10 instances Nifty recovered half of it on the same day or the next day. Today it happened on the same day. Nifty range today was 5825 - 5973 where as Nifty futures range was 5822 - 5968 (for details see chart above). Volatility is likely to continue for the next two days also. Tomorrow's Agni level is at 5890.

Monday, November 22, 2010

Except High volatility in next three days


Today(22-11-10)Nifty opened at 5945 with a gain of 55 points, moved in the range 5905 - 5960 up to 13.00, moved up to 6020 thereafter(Surya level was 6000)and closed at 6010 with a gain of 120 points. Nifty futures range was 5907 - 6027, having a difference of 120 points. Expect high volatility in coming three days. Tomorrow's Agni level is at 5868.

Sunday, November 21, 2010

Nifty closes at 23x ( 256 x 23 = 5888)


On Friday(19-11-10)Nifty closed at 5890 with a loss of 109 points ie. at 23x. At 13.55 Nifty was at 5987 with just 12 points loss. The down move to 5864 ( - 135 points)came thereafter, may be due to China's hike in reserve requirement ratio(btw Soma level was 5868). In this down move Nifty futures moved to discount after two and half months of hefty premiums, signaling a negative bias. Nifty futures range was 5860 - 6013 against spot range of 5864 - 6013. Tomorrow's Agni level is at 5871.

Thursday, November 18, 2010

Highly volatile day - closing at 6000


Highly volatile day - swing of 170 points, but closing at 5999 with a gain of 10 points. Today's(18-11-10)Nifty futures range was 5925 - 6059. Tomorrow's Agni level is at 5908. Market is unstable and hence assumptions based on today's figures may not hold good for tomorrow.

Tuesday, November 16, 2010

Nifty near centre of P(5952)


Though Nifty opened at 6144 with a gain of 22 points today(16-11-10), due to adverse global cues, after 11.00 a.m. it declined fast and moved near to centre of P(5952)as anticipated in Saturday's post. Expectation that Nifty may move to D1 (in yesterday's post) was thus aborted. Nifty closed at 5889 with a loss of 133 points. Nifty futures range was 6134 -> 5975. Tomorrow(17-11-10) being a holiday on account of Bakri-Id Thursday's Agni level is at 5956.

Monday, November 15, 2010

Nifty may move to D1 (above 6154)


Today(15-11-10) Nifty opened at 6085 with a gain of 13 points, declined to 6039, gradually moved up to 6129 and closed at 6122 with a gain of 50 points. It is likely that Nifty may move above 6154 and enter D1 giving possibility for another move to 6300 - 6355 area. Nifty futures range was 6060 - 6149. Tomorrow's Agni level is at 6068 and Nifty above Agni level signals a buy.

Saturday, November 13, 2010

Nifty back to P (Panchamam)


On Friday(12-11-10)Nifty opened at 6163 with a loss of 31 points, moved upwards to 6201, thereafter steadily declined to 6057(Soma level: 6044) and closed at 6072 in P(Panchamam - Low: 5797, Centre: 5952, High: 6154)with a loss of 122 points. Therefore, Nifty may move towards centre of P(5952). Nifty futures range was 6241 -> 6074. Monday's Agni level is at 6147.

Thursday, November 11, 2010

Nifty closes below 6200


Today(11-11-10)Nifty opened at 6297 with a gain of 21 points, declined gradually to 6180 and closed at 6194 with a loss of 82 points. During the last three days, though Nifty was below the Agni level significant down move was not there. Today it happened. Nifty futures range was 6321 -> 6209. Tomorrow's Agni level is at 6258.

Wednesday, November 10, 2010

Nifty back to day before yesterdays level.


Today(10-11-10) Nifty moved in the range 6269 - 6308 and closed at 6276 with a loss of 26 points. Thus Nifty is back to day before yesterday's level. Nifty futures range was 6295 - 6332. Tomorrow's Agni level is at 6348.

Tuesday, November 9, 2010

Nifty closes with a gain of 29 points


Today(9-11-10) Nifty moved in the range 6244 - 6311 and closed at 6302 with a gain of 29 points. Nifty up move from 6253 to 6311 came after 1.00 p.m. Futures premium increased from 18 points to 36 points during this period, may be due to short covering. Nifty futures range was 6262 - 6347. Tomorrow's Agni level is at 6398.

Monday, November 8, 2010

Nifty closes below Agni level


Today(8-11-10)Nifty closed at 6273 with a loss of 39 points, below the Agni level for the day(6345). Nifty range was 6265 - 6335. Nifty futures range was 6282 - 6340. Nifty may continue its down move tomorrow. Tomorrow's Agni level is at 6376.

Sunday, November 7, 2010

Nifty closes at 6312, its highest ever ( new high 10115 on 1-8-17)


On Diwali Muhurat trading (5th November,2010 evening)Nifty closed at 6312, its highest closing ever, though high reached was 6339 against the 2008 January high of 6357. Nifty formed a black candle (Open: 6322 & close: 6312)on Muhurat trading along with breaking of lower figures in Nifty future. It's like half glass milk. Optimists can take it positively and pessimists can take it negatively. Nandi is always positive whenever Nifty is above the Agni level and negative otherwise. Tomorrow's Agni level is at 6345.

Thursday, November 4, 2010

WISH YOU ALL A VERY HAPPY DIWALI


Multiple HAPPY DIWALI joy is here. Nifty near all time high - Coal India IPO gain of 40% in first day - US President Mr. Barack Obama arrives for his first visit to India.


Today(4-11-10)Nifty reached 6280 - 6300 area (High:6290)as posted on 1st November, 2010 (Monday). Nifty close was 6282 second highest in its life time (highest was 6288 on 8th January, 2008)with a gain of 121 points. Next target is the centre of D1(6355). Nifty futures range : 6222 - 6310. Tomorrow's Agni level is at 6284. Being Diwali Muhurat, tomorrow's trading is in between 6.15 pm. and 7.00 p.m only.

Wednesday, November 3, 2010

Nifty closes in D1 - but, loses momentum


Today(3-11-10)Nifty opened at 6168 with a gain of 49 points, moved in the tight range 6183 -> 6147 and closed at 6161, with a gain of 42 points in D1. Nifty futures range was 6215 -> 6176. Last one and half hour saw the high and low of the day and high volatility. As Nifty close today is below the Agni level for tomorrow (6166)it can be said that Nifty is losing momentum and it is to be seen whether it can remain in D1.

Tuesday, November 2, 2010

Nifty closed flat even after RBI's Repo Rate increase


Today(2-11-10)Nifty closed flat at 6119 even after 25 basis points raise announced by RBI in Repo and Reverse Repo rates with immediate effect. Volatility was low as can be seen from the Nifty's +20 to -24 points variation. Nifty futures range was 6128 - 6174, having a difference of 46 points only. RBI didn't announce any other steps to tame the inflation, which continues to surge and that may the reason market hesitated on announcement of expected 25 basis points increase in Repo and Reverse Repo rates. Let us wait for tomorrow also to know whether Nifty intends to move to D1. Agni level for tomorrow is at 6078.

Monday, November 1, 2010

Nifty closes above Agni level


Today(1-11-10) Nifty opened at 6097 with a gain of 79 points, moved in the range 6085 - 6132 and closed at 6118 with a gain of 100 points. Nifty futures range was 6091 - 6172, having a premium around 35 points. RBI monetary policy review is due for tomorrow and hence the closing is important. If closes in D1(above 6154), a retest of 6280 - 6300 area can be anticipated. Tomorrow's Agni level is at 6011.