Monday, February 28, 2011

Nifty moves to high of M1(5464) and closes above Agni level

Today(28-2-11)the Budget day, Nifty opened at 5337 with a gain of 33 points and closed at 5333 with a gain of 29 points ie. at the opening level itself, ignoring the Budget as a non-event. However, in between Nifty touched the levels mentioned in the yesterday post and declined as expected. Nifty high and low were 5477 and 5309 respectively and Nifty futures 5499 and 5310, having a difference of 189 points. As Nifty closing is above the Agni level it is positive for tomorrow. But, tomorrow's Moon - Venus conjunction, March 2nd's holiday on account of Mahashivratri and Moon - Mars conjunction on Amavasi day(4th March)makes it difficult to say anything. Only advise is to watch Agni level and go long or short based on it. Tomorrow's Agni level is at 5229.

Sunday, February 27, 2011

Monday the Budget day - high volatility expected

Friday(25-2-11), the Railway Budget Day Nifty opened at 5325 with a gain of 62 points, on presentation of Railway Budget moved down to 5233, surged 88 points due to EFF(ie. Exceptional Friday Effect)to reach 5321 and closed at 5304 with a gain of 41 points(for exact details see chart). Nifty futures range was 5232 - 5347, having a difference of 114 points.

Being the Budget day, on Monday Nifty will be highly volatile. Statements to be made by the FM during his Budget presentation can drag down or lift Nifty and on later part give temporary direction to the Indian market. Shri K S Badri Narayanan says " If the Budget brings in cheer, Nifty is expected to reach 5463 and even go to 5681. On the other hand, if the Budget is neutral or negative for the markets, then Nifty is likely to touch 4960 and 4786" (Business Line dated 27th February 2011). It is worth to note that the immediate levels mentioned by him are important levels in music scale ie. 5464 is the top of M1 and 4960 centre of G2. It is likely that Nifty may move up to 5400 - 5464 range and decline. Agni level for tomorrow is 5264.

Thursday, February 24, 2011

Nifty closes at 5263 ; below centre of M1(5286)

Today(24-2-11)Nifty opened at 5409 with a loss of 28 points, after moving to 5423 steadily moved down to 5348(Soma level was 5354), moved up to 5375, moved down fast to 5243 and closed at 5263, below centre of M1(5286). Today's decline exceeded the normal anticipations and became the biggest fall of current year with a loss of 174 points. Nifty futures range was 5430 -> 5251, having a difference of 179 points. Since today's close is below the centre of M1, Nifty may move further down to low of M1(5123)in coming days. Tomorrow is an Exceptional Friday, and Nifty may recover a part of today's fall. But, avoid any buying unless Nifty moves above Agni level(5354).

Wednesday, February 23, 2011

Nifty close @ 5437 in M1

Today(23-2-11)Nifty opened at 5446 with a loss of 23 points and closed at 5437 with a loss of 32 points. Nifty & Nifty futures ranges were 5428 - 5495 and 5427 - 5501 respectively. Tomorrow is the settlement day for February series and Nifty may close around 5400 level. Agni level is at 5447.

Tuesday, February 22, 2011

Nifty closes at low of M2 again

Today(22-2-11)Nifty opened at 5474 with a loss of 45 points and closed at 5469 with a loss of 50 points ie. at low of M2(5464). Today's Nifty range was 5437 - 5519 and Nifty futures 5428 - 5520, swinging between discount and premium. Tomorrow also opening will be influenced by Asian markets & Agni level is at 5518.

Monday, February 21, 2011

Nifty closes above 5500

Today(21-2-11)Nifty opened at 5484 with a gain of 25 points, declined to 5413(14:00), surged to 5526 and closed at 5519 with a gain of 60 points. Nifty futures range was 5411 - 5539, having a difference of 128 points. Agni level for tomorrow is at 5557 and do not hold shorts above that level.

Sunday, February 20, 2011

After Friday's down move Nifty closes at low of M2

On Friday(18-2-11)Nifty opened at 5558 with a gain of 12 points, moved upwards to 5599, moved down steadily to 5442 and closed at 5459 with a loss of 87 points, at low of M2(5464). Nifty futures range was 5589 -> 5436, having a difference of 153 points. As anticipated in the last Sunday (13-2-11)post, 18th February (Full Moon Day)was a down day as seen above. Nifty will be highly volatile next week due to F& O settlement and Union Budget. Probable Nifty range for the next two weeks is Low of M1(5123) & High of M2(5797). Traders having low tolerance level may keep aside and enjoy the fire works. Tomorrow's Agni level is at 5584 and Nifty may move down to 5400 levels.

Note: Sensex had a date with time on last Pournami(Full Moon day). It closed at 18,211 exactly matching the date 18-2-11.

Nifty & Nifty futures figures on Thursday (17-2-11) are given in the chart below for future reference.

Wednesday, February 16, 2011

Nifty closes flat with a negative bias

Today(16-2-11)Nifty opened at 5468 with a loss of 13 points, moved in the range 5460 - 5505 and closed at 5482 with a gain of just 1 point. Nifty futures range was 5459 - 5508, having a difference of 49 points. As tomorrow's Agni level is at 5552, avoid long unless Nifty moves above Agni level.

Note: In carnatic music there is a raga "Shankarabharanam". Meaning of "Shankar- abharanam" is ornaments of Lord Shankara. Sasi(Moon) and Pannaga(Serpent)are important ornaments of Lord Shiva and the serpent around the neck of Lord Shankara is "Vasuki". Path of Nifty can be perhaps associated with the journey of Vasuki in the mount of Kailas. It is believed that the divine presence of "Vasuki" is in the Pampumekkattu Mana in Thrissur District. As Nandi is on a short visit to that divine place, figures for Friday may not be posted on Thursday night.

Tuesday, February 15, 2011

Nifty remains in M1

Today(15-2-11)Nifty opened at 5472 with a gain of 16 points, moved down to 5408, moved up to 5507 and closed at 5481 with a gain of 25 points. Today's close has to be treated in M1 itself since the average is 5457 only, which is lesser than the high of M1(5464), though closing figure is in M2. Nifty futures range was 5398 - 5504, and most of the time Nifty futures was in discount. So, tomorrow's Nifty movement also has to be watched to know market direction. Tomorrow's Agni level is at 5431.

Monday, February 14, 2011

Nifty closes at top of M1(5456)

Today(14-2-11)Nifty opened at 5359 with a gain of 49 points, moved upwards steadily to top of M1(5464) and closed at 5456 with a gain of 146 points. Nifty futures range was 5336 - 5468, having a difference of 132 points. Since Nifty has moved to top of M1, which was expected to be reached during Monday to Wednesday, what next can be said only after seeing tomorrow's movements. If Nifty moves to M2 firmly(with daily average also) next level is centre of M2(5642). Agni level for tomorrow is at 5293.

Sunday, February 13, 2011

Exceptional Friday effect - Nifty closes above Agni level

On Friday(11-2-11)Nifty opened at 5248 with a gain of 22 points, moved down to 5178 (Agni level: 5188), surged to 5319 (141 points up move - more than expected Exceptional Friday Effect) and closed at 5310 with a gain of 84 points. Last two days, though closed in red, Nifty was giving positive signals and today Nifty closed above Agni level. Tomorrow if Nifty moves above 5378 it may move towards 5464 in coming days. Tomorrow's Agni level is at 5181

Today(Sunday)the Sun transited to Aquarius and Grahanila for tomorrow(14th Feb) is given below. Jupiter in Pisces, Moon in Gemini, Saturn in Virgo, Venus in Sagiturus and Mercury & Mars in Capricornus. Next eventful day is 18th February - full moon and mercury transits to Aquarius - may be a down day.

Thursday, February 10, 2011

Nifty retains slightly positive outlook

Today(10-2-11)Nifty opened at 5246 with a loss of 8 points, moved in the range plus or minus 40 points to Agni level(5240) ie. 5197 - 5273 and closed at 5226 with a loss of 28 points. Nifty futures range was 5213 - 5285, having a difference of 72 points only. As Nifty closing today is above the Agni level for tomorrow, slightly positive outlook still remains. Since there was a 0.25 points plus closing on 7th Feb during this week, technically tomorrow is not an exceptional Friday. Tomorrow's Agni level is at 5188.

Wednesday, February 9, 2011

Slightly positive signal for tomorrow

Today(9-2-11), after high volatile movement in the range 5226 - 5339, Nifty closed at 5254 with a loss of 59 points. Nifty futures range was 5228 - 5348, having a difference of 120 points. Tomorrow's Agni level is at 5240, below the Nifty closing today and hence slightly positive. Cover shorts if Nifty remains above Agni level. All other earlier observations still valid.

Tuesday, February 8, 2011

Nifty closes at 5313, below Agni level

Today(8-2-11)Nifty opened at 5432 with a gain of 36 points, moved down to 5336 at 11.40, moved in the range 5436 - 5451 up to 14.30, moved down to 5303 thereafter and closed at 5313 with a loss of 83 points, below the Agni level. Nifty futures range was 5421 -> 5304. Nifty may move down to centre of M1(5286)tomorrow. If downward move continues the next level is low of M1(5123). Tomorrow's Agni level is at 5362.

Monday, February 7, 2011

Nifty closes flat without reveling its further direction

Today(7-2-11)Nifty opened at 5398 with a gain of 2 points, moved in the range 5385 - 5421 up to 14.00, moved up to 5440 just before 15.00, spared all gains and moved down to 5377 and closed flat at yesterday's same position(5396). Nifty futures range was 5370 - 5445. As tomorrow's Agni level is at 5403, today's closing though flat gives a negative bias. Nifty is swinging in between centre of M1(5286) and high of M1(5464). Let's wait for tomorrow also to see which direction it flows.

Saturday, February 5, 2011

Upmove dissipates @5556 & Nifty closes just above Agni level

On Friday(4-2-11)Nifty opened at 5514 with a loss of 13 points, moved upwards up to 5556 (yesterday's EMA 10), moved downwards 187 points to touch 5369 ( 21x ie. 21 x 256 = 5376) and closed at 5396 with a loss of 131 points, in M1 just above today's Agni level (5394). Nifty futures range was 5357 - 5566, having a difference of 209 points, second highest difference this year (first one is 14th January with 221 points). From the above figures it can be seen that Nifty futures was at a discount of 12 points ( 5369 - 5357) near the end of the day.

For Monday it gives a confusing picture with possibilities in both the directions.
Positive factors are Nifty closing above the Agni level and it is in Ni,Sa,Ri area (21x) where a reversal can take place. Negative factors are it is below EMA 10 and Nifty may slide to centre of M1(5286) as the closing is in M1 as pointed out in day before yesterday (2nd Feb). So, keep away till the direction is clear.

Friday, February 4, 2011

One lakh visitors to Vipani Sangeetham

Today(4th February, 2011) at 11.00 p.m.(IST) 1,00,000th visitor hits Vipani Sangeetham. Incidentally today is the Second day of the Chinese Lunar Year. It is gathered that from 2013 February onwards a new 13 months lunar year calendar with 28 days in a month will be introduced world wide. Vipani Sangeethem started its journey on 13th June, 2008. Total visits by all is 1,39,096 as shown below. Till this date it is a zero income zero expenditure blog.


Thursday, February 3, 2011

Amavasi (no-Moon day) breaks the trend again

Today(3-2-11)Nifty opened at 5418 with a loss of 14 points, between 9.50 to 11.00 surged to 5518, moved in the narrow range 5497 - 5528 thereafter and closed at 5527 with a gain of 95 points, in M2. Today's rise is equal to the fall on 28-1-11. Nifty futures range was 5425 - 5546, having a difference of 121 points. Thus, again on Amavasi(no-Moon day)Nifty reverses its trend started on the last Amavasi ie. 4th January 2011. Tomorrow's Agni level is at 5394 and Nifty may move to centre of M2(5642)in coming days.

Wednesday, February 2, 2011

Nifty closes in M1, but above Agni level

Today(2-2-11)Nifty opened at 5479 with a gain of 62 points, moved in the range 5416 - 5491 and closed at 5432 with a gain of 15 points, in M1(Sudha Madhyamam - High:5464, Centre:5286, Low:5123)- average today was 5453. Nifty futures range was 5422 - 5510 , having a difference of 88 points.

As Nifty closed in M1 today it is bound to touch the centre of M1(5286). But, it may take a few days due to the fact Nifty is above the Agni level(5332) and an upward move is pending. Tomorrow in addition to a no-moon day, Moon conjuncts with Mars and net effect will be a highly volatile day.

Tuesday, February 1, 2011

Nifty closes @5417 - last seen mid August 2010

Today(1-2-11)Nifty opened at 5539 with a gain of 33 points and closed at 5417 with a loss of 89 points (for details see table above). Nifty futures range was 5542 -> 5411, a difference of 131 points. Though Nifty close is below M2, average being 5471 M2 is maintained. Today's Nifty close level was last seen in mid August 2010( ie. 5418 on 16th August,2010). Tomorrow's Agni level is at 5369 and if Nifty declines below that centre of M1(5286)can be expected.