Thursday, April 30, 2009

Nifty back to Kaisiki Nishadam

On Wednesday (29-4-09) Nifty recovered all the loss made last day (due to swine flu scare) and closed at 3474. On 27th it was indicated that the closing of Nifty in Kaisiki Nishadam for two days continuously indicates strength and Nifty may move above 3500 again. Nifty crossing Kaisiki Nishadam and Kakali Nishadam means Nifty in Shadjam (3968) again. As already told on 14th April, the period up to 30th May 2009 will be crucial for the Indian market and it will decide which Shadjam it has to go namely 3968 or 1984 (3968 is double of 1984). As it stands now, the probability is for the first one. Any how, let us wait and see.

Tuesday, April 28, 2009

Swine flu swaps the world markets

Yesterday(27-4-09)evening the news on the outbreak of swine flu in Mexico and finding victims in USA,Canada and Europe were flashed on TV screens. As fear swept in US markets ended lower and to day the Asian and European markets. Nifty today (28-4-09) opened weak and continued its downward journey till the closing without any major attempt to pull back, and finally closed at 3362 with a loss of 108 points.
After remaining in Kaisiki Nishadam (3484)for one day on 15th April, Nifty closed in Chatusruti Daivatham (3370)next day . This time Nifty remained two days in Kaisiki Nishadam (3481 & 3470) and today returned to Chatusruti Daivatham (3362). Tomorrow being the settlement day for derivatives high volatility can be expected. Agni level for tomorrow is at 3478.Please note that 30th April, 2009 and 1st May, 2009 will be holidays for the market on account of General Elections and Maharastra Day in Mumbai.

Monday, April 27, 2009

Second day closing in Kaisiki Nishadam

Today(27-4-09) Nifty closed at 3470 with a loss of 11 points, after moving in the range of 3435 & 3517. However, it is the 2nd day closing in Kaisiki Nishadam (above 3460) which indicates strength. Last time (17th April)next day it declined and closed in Chatusruti Daivatham. Nifty moving above 3500 again seems probable. Agni level for tomorrow is at 3475 which is just above the Nifty closing today. Exit as usual, when Nifty slides below Agni level(allow 8 points grace).

Sunday, April 26, 2009

Nifty again in Kaisiki Nishadam

Nifty Friday (24-4-09)closing was at 3481 in Kaisiki Nishadam band width ( Kaisiki Nishadam Low:3460, Center:3573, High:3646). The expected breach of 3300 - 3500 range didn't take place during the week passed by, even though there was an attempt to break downwards. Next, Nifty will breach 3500 tomorrow and likely to move to 3573 or even 3646 in coming days. But, there may be high volatility and limitations to the movement of Nifty, as F&O settlement is on Wednesday (29th April), holidays on 30th April, 2009 and 1st May, 2009 on account of General Elections and Maharastra Day in Mumbai. Thus this week will be a truncated week with just three working days.

Thursday, April 23, 2009

A good day for the market

Today (23-4-09) Nifty low was 3310 ( Surya - 3307), high 3438 (Soma - 3452); thus Nifty touching almost both the levels. A good opportunity as indicated was available when Nifty moved above the Agni level at 3335. As the level 3300 was well protected up to the expiry of F&O, a buy below 3335 was also not bad. Nifty closed at 3424 with a gain of 94 points.

Wednesday, April 22, 2009

Did Nifty break 3300 level ?

Today (22-4-09) Nifty spot low was 3296.90, a point sub 3300 which has not been seen after 9th April, 2009. Nandi does not consider it as a breach of 3300 level, as 8 points grace is not crossed. It was considered as a remote possibility considering the strength in put open interest. Nifty immediately moved above 3300 and closed at 3330. Tomorrow's Agni level is at 3335 and it is a buy if Nifty moves up and closes above that level.

Note: One more EIGHT coming. RBI is introducing new Ten Rupee bimetallic coin having weight of 8 (Eight) grams. Welcome to the new member to the group of 8.

Tuesday, April 21, 2009

Agni level receds below Nifty close.

Last four days Nifty's up move was dissipated around the Agni level for that days. But, EOD Agni level has receded to 3351, below the Nifty close of 3365 indicating a buy. Buy /go long tomorrow unless Nifty trades/closes below 3350. Nifty sliding below 3300 during this month seems remote. Today also Nifty's low was 3309, around the Surya level at 3314.

Sunday, April 19, 2009

Nifty may break 3500 - 3300 range this week

Last three trading days Nifty moved to Kaisiki Nishadam bandwidth(above 3460)and was in the broad range of 3300 - 3500. Only on first day (15th) it closed in Kasiki Nishadam (3484). Next week will give indication whether it will break the resistance around 3500 or move down below the support at 3300. As Agni level for tomorrow is at 3460 go long only if it crosses 3468/3476 (8/16 points margin added).

Saturday, April 18, 2009

March-April 2009 Nifty Rally

During the period from 9th March to 17th April,2009 Nifty gained
around 1000 points. One who could follow the action suggested at
Vipani Sangeetham could have gained 800 points. See the chart
below for details.

6-Mar-09 2620.15 2536 BUY
9-Mar-09 2573.15 2542 BUY
12-Mar-09 2617.45 2550 BUY
13-Mar-09 2719.25 2563 BUY
16-Mar-09 2777.25 2654 BUY
17-Mar-09 2757.45 2732 BUY
18-Mar-09 2794.70 2810 SELL 258.70
19-Mar-09 2807.15 2870 SELL
20-Mar-09 2807.05 2873 SELL
23-Mar-09 2939.90 2850 BUY
24-Mar-09 2938.70 2911 BUY
25-Mar-09 2984.35 2953 BUY
26-Mar-09 3082.25 3014 BUY
27-Mar-09 3108.65 3118 SELL 258.65
30-Mar-09 2978.15 3154 SELL
31-Mar-09 3020.95 3126 SELL
1-Apr-09 3060.35 3103 SELL
2-Apr-09 3211.05 3059 BUY
6-Apr-09 3256.60 3097 BUY
8-Apr-09 3342.95 3226 BUY
9-Apr-09 3342.05 3362 SELL 283.95
13-Apr-09 3382.60 3461 SELL
15-Apr-09 3484.15 3485 SELL
16-Apr-09 3369.50 3541 SELL
17-Apr-09 3384.40 3483 SELL

Thursday, April 16, 2009

Nifty back to Chatusruti Daivatham

Today (16-4-09)at the opening itself Nifty oscillated up and down and choose to come down. First it went up to 3511, came down to 3354 in the last trading hours and closed at 3370 with a loss of 114 points. As Nifty was below the Agni level from 13th April, expectation of a down fall was in the air and that materialised today. As tomorrow's Agni level is at 3483 against today's Nifty closing of 3370 a further slide down can be expected.

Wednesday, April 15, 2009

Nifty in Kaisiki Nishadam

Nifty's today (15-4-09)closing was at 3484 in Kaisiki Nishadam band width ( Kaisiki Nishadam Low:3460, Center:3573, High:3646). From the strength shown by Nifty today it seems that Nifty may reach the high of Kaisiki Nishadam soon. Nifty's this Wednesday movement was similar to the last two Wednesday's ( 1st & 8th April). In tune with global cues Nifty opened from the bottom, steadily moved up wards and closed with good gains. The comparison is as shown below
Date ----- Begining ---- Closing
1st ---- (-) 43 ------- (+) 51
8th ---- (-) 108 ------ (+) 85
15th ---- (-) 71 ------- (+) 101

Nifty's upward movement was maximum at the closing ie. 3498 just above the Agni level. Tomorrow's Agni level is 3541 and it seems that tomorrow also Agni level will be touched.

Tuesday, April 14, 2009

Very crucial period ahead

To day (14th April, 2009) is Vishu festival day (1st day of Malayalam month Medam )for Malayalees, especially for Malabar region. Sun is directly overhead in these part of the glob on its journey from tropics of Cancer (23°30′ South of equator) to tropics of Capricorn (23°30′North of equator). Astronomically, on this day Sun moves to Medam (Aries - the Ram) from Meenam (Pisces - the Fish). That's why Nandi had fixed the starting point Shadjam of music scale to this day. This year, coming 30-45 days are very crucial period for Nifty / Indian Stock Market. Nifty is now at 3400 and as per last five years experiences during the period mentioned it should move to Shadjam (either 1984 or 3968). Earlier Nandi believed that it will be at 1984; but now he is not sure, it can be 3968 also.
The Indian Lok Sabha Election will start from 16th April (Kerala and 6 other States) and will end on 13th May. The chances of formation of Government under the leadership of Indian National Congress or Bharatheeya Janatha Party wont adversely affect the market. The chances of hung parliament or unstable government may dampen the recovery of the market. In fact countless regional parties and their strategies looks similar to the Nattu Rajyas (Regional kingdoms) of old East India Company era, which is harmful to India as a whole. Nandi is of the opinion that even though any regional party can be voted to power for State Assembly Elections, prudent voters should cast their votes in the Lok Sabha Elections so that one or two National Parties alone are voted to power. Our voting system should be modified so that only parties getting 50 percent or above of total votes polled (by introducing 2nd vote or even 3rd vote)alone be allowed to form the National Government. At present we can choose what is available (First or Second best National Party) for the continuance and growth of united India. JAI HIND.


Sunday, April 12, 2009

Agni level above Nifty closing.

Agni level for tomorrow (13th April,2009) is at 3461 against Nifty closing of 3342. Considering the above aspect along with the fact that %k of slow stochastic is above 90, the chances of Nifty moving down a little bit is very high. It is also to be noted that Nifty was up continuously for the last 5 days just before the doji on 9th April. Next day the 14th is a holiday for the market on account of Dr. Ambedkar Jayanti and from 15th April, 2009 onwards results for the last quarter are due and Infosys results are on 15th April.

Friday, April 10, 2009

Best Wishes For a Happy Easter

Father Philip Vaisaneth IOC, has on this auspicious Easter day (12th April)performed an inspiring Carnatic Music concert in "Srutilayam" programme of Amrita TV based on the resurrection of the Lord Jesus Christ. Congratulations to Father Philip Vaisaneth.

Wednesday, April 8, 2009

Unparallel recovery and closing in green

Nifty today (8-4-09) plunged to 108 points just after opening and it was expected also. But, Nifty steadily moved up and by 1.30 p.m it was at 3230, above today's Agni level at 3226. The up move thereafter was unparallel. Nifty not only wiped out all losses, but also shown a green figure of 100 points around 3.00 o'clock(thus an up movement of 208 points from bottom to top - which never occurred after 13 October 2008 ); and finally closed at 3343 in Chatusruti Daivatham level. Chatustruti Daivatham levels are Low: 3263, Centre: 3348 and High : 3460. Now Nifty is likely to move to next level of Kaisiki Nishadam shortly - may not be on tomorrow. Watch Agni level and trade accordingly.

Friday, April 3, 2009

Nifty again in Sudha Daivatham

Nifty Thursday(2-4-09)movement was extremely smooth and better than expected. Even though up move was expected, the opening with a gain of 58 points, and steady increase of gain up to 169 points and closing at 3211 with a gain of 151 points was not at all anticipated within one day. As Nifty opening itself was very high, many(including Nandi) had missed this opportunity. Just before that for 3 days it was in a 2960 - 3110 (150 points) range. Now, Nifty is in Sudha Daivatham as in January 2009 and back in October, 2008 just before the October low of 2253. For further up move it must cross the upper limit of Sudha Daivatham at 3263. But one thing noted is Soma Surya levels are not reflecting the up move of 151 points; Soma level moved up just 15 points. Therefore, there are chances that last days up move may be dissipated during next week. However don't jump in conclusions; trade with care.

Thursday, April 2, 2009

Nifty above Agni level.

Yesterdays (1-4-09) closing of Nifty is at 3060 just above the Agni level of 3059 for the day. Hence it is a buy time. Last three days Nifty were in upper band of Panchamam and today it is likely to move to Sudha Daivatham again (above 3077).
Please note that April 3,7,10 and 14 are trading holidays and plan accordidngly.