Thursday, September 30, 2010

Extreme volatility on Ayodhya case verdict day

Today(30-9-10), the day of Ayodhya case verdict, Nifty exhibited high volatility till the closing time. Nifty opened at 5985 with a loss of 6 points, moved in the range 5964 - 6004 mostly in the negative territory up to 2.30 p.m., speedy & powerful up move of 84 points thereafter which catapulted Nifty to 6048 and closing at 6030 (same as day before yesterday)with a gain of 39 points. Nifty high was in between Agni level(6040)and Surya level(6052). Nifty futures range was 5963 -> 6035, having a difference of 72 points which is exactly divisible by 8. What caused such a strong up move after 2.30 p.m. today? The answers may be many such as
1. Writers of Nifty 6000 put which was heavy in volume wanted to save their position.
2. FIIs and Mutual Funds wanted to report a good NAV at the close of this quarter.
3. Traders who had shorted was forced to cover their positions.
4. Positions of European markets started to improve.
5. Exceptional Friday effect advanced for one day to lift the index?
6. FIIs/DIIs didn't mind the Ayodhya case verdict.
What ever may be the reasons, it was really impressive, even though not unexpected.
Waiting for tomorrow to see whether Exceptional Friday effect is there or not. Tomorrow's Agni level is at 6037.

Wednesday, September 29, 2010

Nifty closes below Agni level

Today(29-9-10)Nifty opened at 6072 with a gain of 42 points, declined steadily to 5980(14.35)and closed at 5991 with a loss of 39 points. Nifty futures range was 6075 -> 5990. High volatility expected tomorrow due to the F&O September series settlement. Agni level for tomorrow is at 6040.

As there is a comment in yesterday's post regarding planetary positions at 3.30 p.m. tomorrow(at the time of Ayodhaya case verdict pronouncement), chart at Sunrise on 1st October, 2010 (Friday) is given below. [Sun @ 163:45°;Saturn @ 163:49°; Jupiter @ 333:03:06°; Moon @ 72:10°; Kethu @ 73:10°; Rahu @ 253:10°]. As Nandi is not a traditional astrologer no comments on its implications.

Tuesday, September 28, 2010

Agni level remains same @ 6035

Today(28-9-10)Nifty opened at 6028 with a loss of 8 points, moved in the narrow range 6020 - 6050 up to 12.30, moved down to 5991(14.00), bounced back to 6042 and closed at 6030 with a loss of 6 points. Nifty futures range was 6003 - 6065. As F&O settlement is due for day after tomorrow, Nifty may be volatile tomorrow & day after tomorrow. Judgment on Ayodhya issue will be declared by Lucknow High Court at 3.30 p.m. on 30th September 2010 ie. after F&O settlement. Tomorrow's Agni level remains same @ 6035.

Monday, September 27, 2010

Nifty closes at Agni level for tomorrow(6035)

Today(27-9-10)Nifty opened at 6067 with a gain of 49 points, stayed above Agni level(6048) up to 14.00, declined thereafter to 6023 and closed at 6036 with a gain of 18 points. Nifty futures range was 6093 -> 6043. Agni level for tomorrow is at 6035 ie. Nifty close today. So, global cues will be the deciding factor for tomorrow.

Sunday, September 26, 2010

On last Friday Nifty closes at 6018

On Friday(24-9-10)Nifty opened at 5951 with a loss of 5 points,quickly moved to positive zone and stayed in the range 5967 - 5988 up to 12.00, moved upward to 6029 and closed at 6018 with a gain of 62 points. Nifty futures range was 5961 -> 6044. As Nifty didn't decline below the centre of P(5952)and closed above that level on Friday, Nifty may move to top of P(6154) in coming days. Nifty moving above that level and entering D1(Sudha Daivatham; Low : 6154, centre: 6355 {Nifty all time high}& Top: 6526)before Deepavali cannot be ruled out. Since Nifty P/E is @ 25.41 ordinary retail investors may please avoid fresh buying. Agni level for Monday is at 6048 and Nifty may move above that level.

Thursday, September 23, 2010

Nifty closes at the centre of P(5952)

Today(23-9-10)Nifty opened at 6007 with a gain of 16 points, declined and moved between 5932 & 5982 and closed at 5956 with a loss of 35 points. Today's closing is at the centre of P(5952) which is below the Agni level for the day(6066). Nifty futures range was 6018 -> 5943. Tomorrow's Agni level is at 6065.

Wednesday, September 22, 2010

Nifty closes below Agni level

Today(22-9-10)Nifty opened at 6037 with a gain of 28 points, declined to 5947 (13.15), moved up to 6001 and closed at 5991 with a loss of 18 points. Nifty futures range was 6048 -> 5953. Agni level for tomorrow is at 6066. Being a full moon day with influences of Jupiter and Saturn, Nifty may be highly volatile tomorrow.

Tuesday, September 21, 2010

Nifty closes above 6000 - first time after 15th Jan 2008

Today(21-9-10)Nifty opened at 6016 with a gain of 36 points, moved in the range 5962 - 6033 and closed at 6009 with a gain of 29 points. Nifty closing above 6000 was last seen on 15th Jan 2008 ie. @ 6156.88. Interestingly, that is the top of P(6154)which we are waiting for. Considering today's performance, it seems that we may have to wait a little longer to see that figure. Nifty futures range today was 5972 - 6046. Nifty futures moved in 6-10 points premium up to 15.05, discount of 1-2 points for 15 minutes and again in premium before closing(indecision among traders? Read Ilangoji's remarks also - second link on left side). Tomorrow's Agni level is at 6025.

Monday, September 20, 2010

Nifty closes at 5980 above the centre of P(5952)

Today(20-9-10)Nifty opened at 5896 with a gin of 11 points and closed at 5890 with a gain of 95 points, above the centre of P(5952). Nifty futures range was 5900 -> 6006. Nifty PE today is @ 25.25. Nifty may move towards top of P(6154) tomorrow / day after tomorrow. Agni level for tomorrow is at 5998.

Sunday, September 19, 2010

Nifty closes at 23x ( 256 x 23 = 5888)

On Friday(17-9-10)Nifty opened at 5881 with a gain of 52 points, moved in the range 5866 - 5898 and closed at 5885 ie. @23x with a gain of 56 points . Nifty futures range was 5861 - 5915. "Nifty may further move to centre of P (5952) or decline from here (since now it is in Ni, Sa, Ri area)" is valid for Monday also. Agni level for tomorrow is at 5953.

Planetary positions today is given below. Sun & Saturn in Virgo, Jupiter in Pisces( close to 180°), Moon in Capricornus, Venus & Mars in Libra and Mercury in Leo. 23rd is the full moon day and Moon will move to Pisces near to Jupiter. Be cautious.

Thursday, September 16, 2010

Nifty closes below Agni level after 12 days

Today(16-9-10)Nifty opened at 5844 with a loss of 17 points, stayed in the range 5841 - 5874 till RBI mid-term policy announcement, moved down to 5820, surged to 5902(Agni level for the day was 5897), declined to 5816 and closed at 5829 with a loss of 32 points. Nifty futures range was 5826 - 5916, having a difference of 90 points. As seen above, Nifty was highly volatile today. Today was the 13th day (ignoring the false signal on 8th and 9th September 2010 - difference between Nifty closing and Agni level was below 10 points) after 1st BUY signal was generated. Agni level was 5412 on 30th August and it is 5897 today. Between these days Nifty surged from 5349 to 5902, and the force was more than the surge for 16 days during 3rd (4538) to 25th November, 2009 (5138). Nifty may further move to centre of P (5952) or decline from here (since now it is in Ni,Sa,Ri area). Tomorrow's Agni level is at 5942.

Wednesday, September 15, 2010

Nifty closes in P ( Panchamam)

Today(15-9-10)Nifty opened at 5792 with a loss of 4 points, moved up to 5869 and closed at 5861 with a gain of 65 points. Nifty moved to red - just 4 points at start. Nifty futures range was 5811 - 5875, having a difference of 64 points. Today also Nifty futures opened in discount and closed in premium. If Nifty stays in the Panchamam range for a couple of days, logically it should move to centre of P (5952). But then PE of Nifty will be above 25 which is very difficult to comprehend now. Tomorrow's Agni level is at 5897.

Tuesday, September 14, 2010

Nifty closes at the top of M2(5797)

Today(14-9-10) Nifty opened at 5782 with a gain of 22 points, moved down to 5767, moved up to 5838, swiftly declined and moved in the range 5775 - 5813 and closed at 5796 with a gain of 36 points. Nifty futures range was 5758 - 5845. Similar to yesterday Nifty futures opened with 8 points discount and closed with 20 points premium. As Nifty close today is at the top of M2(5797), whether it will move to P(Panchamam; Bottom : 5797, Centre: 5952 and Top: 6154)will be known during this week. It is likely that Nifty may open positive and go to red tomorrow. Agni level for tomorrow is at 5811.

Monday, September 13, 2010

Nifty closes above Agni level (without declining)

Today (13-9-10)Nifty opened at 5709 with a gain of 69 points, moved steadily up to 5771 and closed at 5760 with a gain of 120 points. Nifty close is the highest after 18th January 2008 and PE is @ 24.32 which is beyond expectation. Nifty futures started with a discount of 30 points and ended with a premium of 6 points - 36 points upward move, definitely due to short covering. Nifty futures range was 5672 - 5777, having a difference of 105 points. Normally, when Agni level is above the Nifty, Nifty moves down dragging the Agni level and within a couple of days Agni level is pushed below the Nifty. But, this time Nifty moved up fast and took position above Agni level, which is a very rare event. Tomorrow Nifty may move to high of M2(5797) and Agni level is at 5753.

Sunday, September 12, 2010

Nifty closes at the centre of M2(5642)

On Thursday(9-9-10) Nifty opened at 5632 with a gain of 24 points, came down to 5615, moved up to 5642(exact centre of M2)as expected, came down again to 5608, moved up again to 5647 and closed at 5640 with a gain of 32 points, at the centre of M2(perfect close). From here Nifty can move up or down which will be known during this week. Nifty futures (50) shown a high of 5711 at the opening itself and that may perhaps be the Nifty futures target for Monday. Nifty Mini(20) futures high and low was 5644 and 5598 respectively. Last two days' Nifty high was less than the Agni level. So, tomorrow also Nifty high may be limited to the Agni level ie. 5698. Though below Agni level, Nifty is moving up which is seen one or two occasions earlier. Nifty PE on last Thursday (9th Sept) is @23.73. Be cautious during this week.

Wednesday, September 8, 2010

Centre of M2(5642) is yet to be reached.

Today(8-9-10)also Nifty high was 5625 and centre of M2(5642)is yet to be reached. Nifty futures range was 5566 - 5624, high 11 points more than yesterday. In spot, instead of single "SA" yesterday it was 4 "SA" today. So, expect one more attempt tomorrow. Tomorrow's Agni level is at 5649.

Tuesday, September 7, 2010

Nifty reaches centre of M2 in daily scale

The following comment was made last month, just before ONAM festival:
"Today(19-8-10)Nifty opened at 5506 with a gain of 27 points, declined a bit to 5495, moved up to 5545 and closed at 5540 with a gain of 61 points in M2(Prati Madhyamam - Low, Centre & High are 5464, 5642 & 5797 respectively). Though a move to the centre of M2(5642) is logical, other figures are not supporting for such a move now." Today(7-9-10)Nifty reached the centre of M2 in daily scale when it reached 5626. To reach centre of M2 in yearly scale Nifty has to move to 5642 ie. just 16 points up. If global cues favors Nifty may reach that level tomorrow, otherwise today's high has to be treated as the centre of M2. Nifty futures range today was 5572 - 5613. Tomorrow's Agni level is at 5616. Nifty is likely to close below that level unless Nifty moves up again tomorrow to reach centre of M2(5642). Not repeating to exit longs when Nifty closes below Agni level as it is known to you.

Monday, September 6, 2010

Nifty closes at new high @5577 - PE @ 23.46

Today(6-9-10)Nifty opened at 5521 with a gain of 42 points, steadily moved upwards to 5589 and closed at 5577 with a gain of 98 points. Nifty futures range was 5509 -> 5589, having a difference of 80 points. Today's Nifty PE is @ 23.46 and Tomorrow's Agni level is at 5569. US markets are closed today on account of Labor day.

Sunday, September 5, 2010

Nifty closes again in M2

On Friday(3-9-10)Nifty opened at 5510 with a gain of 24 points, moved in the narrow range 5474 - 5495 and closed at 5479 with a loss of 7 points. Nifty futures range was 5471 - 5500.
Next Amavasi(no Moon day)is on 8th and change in planetary positions from 9th only ( see table below). Hence range bound movement( 5400 - 5600) up to next Wednesday and decline thereafter expected. Do not trade in anticipation, trade according to Agni level only. Tomorrow's Agni level is at 5486.

Thursday, September 2, 2010

Nifty closes in M2 - but PE @ 23.08

Today(2-9-10)Nifty opened at 5514 with a gain of 42 points, moved in the range 5478 - 5502 and closed at 5486 with a gain of 14 points in M2 range. Today's Nifty futures range was 5510(unbroken) - 5477. Tomorrow Nifty may open positive(if global cues favors) and move to negative territory. Tomorrow's Agni level is at 5450.

Wednesday, September 1, 2010

Nifty closes at top of M1 again.

Today(1-9-10)Nifty opened at 5432 with a gain of 30 points, moved in the range 5418 - 5447 till 13.30, surged upwards to 5479 and closed at 5472 with a gain of 70 points. Nifty futures range was 5414 - 5488. As tomorrow's Agni level is 5393 Nifty may move upwards to M2 again.