Thursday, August 20, 2009
Nifty again closes near Chat. Rishabham centre point
"For the period up to 27th Aug, above 4500 is a tough task as 43 lakhs call outstanding is there at present. Nifty may move above 4611 in to Gandharam after that, but above 4731 is difficult up to October 2009 as PE Ratio will be above 21 when selling will come in. Similarly if Dollar price moves above 49.00 then also be careful. Therefore, expecting a down ward move soon after this months F&O settlement will be a most logical conclusion." This is a reply given to a query to one of the visitors yesterday (refer comments under the post dated 18th August for the query)and Today's (20-8-09) Nifty movement just confirms the above view. Nifty opened gap up at 4476 and moved in a very narrow range of 4462 - 4484 till 13.00, then down to 4452, up to 4493 at 14.30 and again down to 4450 and close at 4453. Till 14.30 Nifty futures range was 4490-4442 (just 48 points difference) and only after 14.30 the range widened to 4504 - 4440, a difference of 64 points which is divisible by 8. At closing the open interest in 4500 call is at 50 lakhs, 4400 put is at 46 lakhs and 4300 put is 60 lakhs.
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4 comments:
dear nandi,
based on your views i shorted nifty @ 4467........it has moved up above 4500...which u said not possible....in the coming four days bfore expiry will i b able 2 recover my loss???????
Dear Ritesh,
Sorry to know that you have ignored the basic rule that "no short when Nifty is above Agni level" and gone short at 4467. Being a regular visitor you might have noted that Soma level is at 4564 and there is chances that Nifty may go up to that level. Whether "tough task" means impossible task?. Let it be as it is.
You should have covered the short when Nifty moved above 4500 remembering that market is superior to everybody and one should follow the market. Now, tomorrow's Agni level has moved up to 4647 and it is better to cover your short at the best opportunity and follow the market trend.
Please read "tomorrow's Agni level has moved up to 4647" as "tomorrow's Soma level has moved up to 4647" in the above comment.
Dear Ritesh,
A ray of hope coming. Tomorrow's Agni level is at 4674 which is higher than today's Nifty closing at 4643. Unless Nifty closes above 4674 tomorrow, market will come down. Today's PE is at 20.82. If you have covered, you may be able to short or if you hold it you can wait.
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