Today also Nifty closes below the Agni level

Today(29-7-10)Nifty opened at 5382 with a loss of 16 points, moved in the narrow range 5382 - 5416 and closed at 5409 with a gain of 11 points. Nifty futures range was 5383 - 5415, a difference of 32 points only which is very rare in a F& O settlement day. Being an exceptional Friday, Nifty may move upwards tomorrow above the Agni level (5403). But, avoid holding longs at the close of the day as there are double conjunctions and formation of 45°, 135° & 180° between planets and the Sun on 31st July and 1st August that may severely affect the market next week.

Please see the chart below. Moon conjuncts with Jupiter in Pisces and Mars conjuncts with Saturn in Virgo. Mars & Saturn forms 180° with Moon & Jupiter ie. they are exactly opposite when viewed from the Earth. And Venus is very close to Saturn & Mars. Sun and Mars&Saturn forms 45° and Sun and Jupiter&Moon forms 135°.

Nifty closes at 5398, below the Agni level

Today(28-7-10) Nifty opened at 5448 with a gain of 17 points, moved between 5420 - 5441 up to 13.00, after that declined up to 5386 and closed at 5398 with a loss of 33 points, below the Agni level. Tomorrow being a F&O settlement day anticipate further decline and a close around 5360. Tomorrow's Agni level is at 5429.

Nifty closed below Agni level with 12 points gain

Today(27-7-10) Nifty opened at 5434 with a gain of 15 points, moved in the range 5407 - 5451 and closed at 5431 with a gain of 12 points(in daily music scale flat at R21A3). Nifty futures range was 5410 - 5459 (today's Agni level was 5459). Despite RBI credit policy announcement and release of quarterly results by a couple of index companies, Nifty didn't move much. Today also Nifty closed below the Agni level for the day(5459) and tomorrow's Agni level is at 5464.

It was really surprising that RBI did not touch CRR or Bank Rate in-spite of double digit inflation due to the price hike of petroleum products. Don't know whether RBI & Central Government is anticipating some bad global news or reduction in crude oil prices in the near future.

Full moon day - Nifty closes below the Agni level

Today(26-7-10), a full moon day, Nifty opened at 5466 with a gain of 17 points, declined steadily to 5409 and closed at 5419 with a loss of 30 points. Nifty futures range was 5417 - 5464. Today's Nifty close is below the Agni level for the day (5441). Tomorrow's Agni level is at 5459 and volatility due to RBI credit policy expected.

Nifty closes at top of M1

On Friday(23-7-10)Nifty opened at 5478 with a gain of 36 points, declined to the range 5435 - 5468, and closed at 5449 with a gain of 7 points at the top of M1(5464). Nifty futures range was 5428 - 5476. Tomorrow's Agni level is at 5441.

RBI Credit Policy and expiry of July contracts besides Full Moon day & Retrograde of Jupiter from 24th are important events this week and volatility expected.

PE R chart of Nifty from the year 1999

Nifty's PER(Price/Earnings Ratio) chart from the year 1999, prepared and posted by Shri Abhay Somkuwar in his blog "value trading" on 6th April 2010 is reproduced above. PER exceeded 24 only on two occasions ie. in 2000 and 2008, after a gap of eight years. On both occasions heavy market crash followed and PER came down to 12. As financial cycles are generally of eight years duration PER exceeding 24 may not happen now and then. Therefore, ordinary retail investors are advised to ignore the profit beyond 23 (2+3=5, all fib numbers) and stay away from the market till PER reduces to a reasonable level after a correction. Who are extremely confident and able to take risk can ignore this and try their luck.

Today's PE Ratio is at 22.75

Today (22-7-10)Nifty opened at 5381 with a loss of 18 points, moved in the range 5372 - 5401 up to 14.00, surged there after to 5447 (+ 48 points) and closed at 5442 with a gain of 43 points. Nifty futures range was 5375 - 5459, a difference of 84 points. Though in the beginning there was no premium, after 11.00 premium began to emerge and at 15.11 premium was highest at 15 points. At closing time premium was at 6 points.
Thus, today Nifty broke the pause and moved upward. As today's PE Ratio is at 22.75 there is little scope for movement above 5500. Exit longs when Nifty goes below Agni level. Tomorrow's Agni level is at 5412.