Nifty above Agni level - Even then don't buy

Today(11-8-09) Nifty closed at 4471 with a gain of 33 points, which is above the Agni level for tomorrow at 4361. Even then Nandi is not recommending a buy now, due to the apprehensions expressed in the last post. Further, selling of FIIs continues for the last five days (5th 480.40 crores, 6th 246.50 crores, 7th 846.10 crores, 10th 639.92 crores, 11th 177.47 crores) and H1N1 flue is spreading. Today Nifty moved from 4400 to 4511 by 14.00 and crashed to 4444 before closing at 4471. The crash from 4511 to 4444 within 45 minutes can also be considered as a weakness. There may be a reward of 150 - 200 points for the traders who are ready to take risk and follow tight stop loss. Others just watch and trade light.

Trade the week ahead with caution

As expected, Nifty low on Friday, the 7th August,2009 was 4464, the centre point of Chatusruti Rishabham and closing was at 4481(a loss of 105 points). Even after such a fall Surya level is still at 4448 which indicates a bounce back, may be to the tune of Friday fall. If that happens Nifty will be above Agni level at 4570 which is a buy again. But, the chances are that Nifty may not go beyond 4570 and prepare for next downward movement.
The period from 10th to 20th August warrants special attention. Many figures in the analysis sheet of Kamolikav, a copy of which is being maintained by Nandi, is showing decreasing / negative figures during this period. The exact implications of it is not yet clear. Nifty PE ratio has gone above 20 and except for October-December 2007, normally corrections take place when Nifty PE is around 21-22. Perhaps the sell off seen on the afternoon of 7th August(full moon day)may have triggered by an advanced computer trading software used by an FII on touching a predefined PE ratio. As the week ahead may spring in surprises, it is advisable to trade with caution and with tight stop loss.

Full moon effect pulls down Nifty 159 points.

Vipani Sangeetham posted warning messages for the last two days on Nifty moving below Agni level and Full moon day on 6th August(today). Hope, at least some retail traders might have anticipated the fall and benefited. Today (6-8-09)till 12.30 p.m. Nifty moved in a narrow range of 32 points of 4652-4684. As European markets opened in green, Nifty started moving up fast and by 13.52 gained 42 points(from 4666 to 4718). Thereafter Nifty swooped fast and touched 4559 by 15.00 (loss of 159 points). Gaining a bit later Nifty closed the day at 4586 with a loss of 108 points. Nandi don't know exactly what pulled down Nifty so fast. Only thing noted is that on full moon days in majority cases market witnesses a steep fall. On July 6, 2009 just one day prior to full moon Nifty closed the day with a loss of 258 points. Who are interested can search for probable reasons, but the fact remains.

Tomorrow's Agni level is at 4709 and Surya level is at 4458(Surya level was 4461,4458 for the last two days and same 4458 tomorrow). Therefore it is probable that the fall may continue up to 4450.

Nifty again below Agni level

Today (5-8-09) Nifty closed flat at 4694 (R18A5 both days). Nifty after opening with a gain of 23 points moved up to 4717 (10.10 a.m.), came down to 4630 (11.30) and climbed back to 4708(15.06) before closing at 4694. As Agni level for tomorrow is at 4766, Nifty closing is below the Agni level for today & tomorrow. As tomorrow is a full moon day Nifty may exhibit tendency to move down wards.

Nifty below Agni level

Today (4-8-09) Nifty closed at 4681 with a loss of 30 points. Nifty opened at 4731, came down to 4643 by 14.35 and climbed back to 4694 before closing. As Agni level for tomorrow is at 4728, today's Nifty closing is below the Agni level for tomorrow and hence it is time to exit longs if Nifty does not move above 4728 tomorrow. As full moon day is near Nifty may slide down further.

Nifty closes above 4700 level

Today (3-8-09) Nifty moved from 4668 to 4618 up to 12.33 and as European markets turned positive Nifty also took a U turn and moved upwards and up to 15.00 stayed near last high of 4693. After a few minutes, around 15.08 Nifty broke 4693/4700 levels. That prompted short covering by bears which lifted Nifty to 4724 levels till 15.30 and closing at 4711 with a gain of 75 points. Next levels are 4759 (Gandharam centre point) and 4859 (upper boarder of Gandharam). As Surya level is at 4824 tomorrow's up move may be limited to 4825-4860 area.

Nifty in Gandharam again after 12th June,2009

Friday's (31-7-2009)Nifty movement is a combination of global cues and Exceptional Friday effect. First part up to 15.00 is due to global and after that Exceptional Friday. As DOW,Asian markets,Singapore Nifty positions were very bullish (Singapore Nifty was up around 60 points in the morning)Nifty opened with a gain of 82 points. After that it not only lost the upward momentum ( after that it added just 10 points gain to record a high of 4670 up to 13.30 ie. not able to reach 4693 of 12-6-09), but also lost and crashed to 4589 by 15.00. Here came the exceptional Friday effect which lifted Nifty again to 4649 and closing at 4636 with a gain of 65 points. So, we have to wait for Monday&Tuesday to know further direction of Nifty. It is to be noted that 5/6th August is a full moon day which in majority cases not good for market and that after reaching 4693 on 12th June,2009 Nifty went down to 3919 by 13th July,2009 before moving upwards. As seen above 12th June and 13th July was a turning point. Is 14th August also?