Nifty in Chatusruti Rishabham

Contrary to the expectations for the Friday, Nifty strongly surged ahead from the starting and closed the day (17-7-09) at 4375 in Chatusruti Rishabham band width with a gain of 144 points. Nifty spot range was 4271(10.00 a.m.) to 4389 (15.30)and Nifty future range was 4256-4400. Today's up movement can be compared to the movement on the Third Friday, the 18th July, 2008 on which Nifty surged exactly 145 points(today is also Third Friday). This type of correlation was expressed earlier also. This point was brought to the notice last Friday to one of the visitors who sought Nandi's opinion (see comments). But, Nandi didn't give due importance to it while posting the last post. This will also be taken in to consideration in future.

There was no exit/short signal today as Agni level was at 4213 and Nifty low 4271. Last year Nifty went up to 4539 before moving down wards. If 4464 (Chatu.Rishabham Centre point) is crossed, that level may be next. Agni level for Monday is 4402.

Nifty closes flat & Agni level rises to 4213

Nifty today (16-7-09) was highly volatile. Even though opened with a gain of 71 points (4305), the momentum could not be sustained and succumbed to selling pressure. By 12.00 noon it lost all gains and moved to negative territory. Negative high was -29 points (4205). After 12.00 noon Nifty's movement can be summarised as 4240 + or - 35 points.

Agni level for tomorrow is at 4213 and if Nifty drifts below that level traders should exit all longs and shift to short. As Nifty closed flat today at 4231, very near to Agni level and it is a Friday, there is every chance that Agni level will be breached in the opening itself.

Nifty closes at centre point of Shuda Rishabham

Nifty today (14-7-09) moved between 4126 - 4156 up to 12.00 noon. Thereafter it gathered momentum and steadily moved up to 4250 before trading hours closed at 15.30. On averaging, Nifty close was at 4234, @ the centre point of Shuda Rishabham (4232), exactly as anticipated in yesterday's post. Nifty future range was 4117 - 4253 with a difference of 136 point which is exactly divisible by 8. Further, to day's high was also exactly at Soma level for the day, ie. 4252. Don't expect such exactness every time, market has its own rhythm and Nandi may not be able to track it exactly.

Tomorrow's Soma level is at 4340 and Nifty may go up to 4348 the upper band of Sudha Rishabham level.

Nifty in Sudha Rishabham

Today (14-7-09) Nifty opened gap up at 4056 with a gain of 82 points. At 12.40 Nifty was at 4045, the lowest of the day. Thereafter it gathered momentum, climbed up to 4100 with ease, then came a selling which pulled down Nifty to 4075. But the momentum of the fall evaporated shortly and Nifty climbed again, crossed 4100 levels smoothly and it was at 4129 at 15.30. On averaging Nifty closed at 4111 with a gain of 137 points. As expected in the last post, Nifty is now in Sudha Rishabham band width (above 4100)and may move to centre point (4232) within a day or two.

Nifty closes above Agni level & close to Shadjam centre point.

Nifty today (13-7-09) closed at 3974 close to 3968, the centre point of Shadjam. Nifty closing above 3945, above the Agni level for the day is positive. As tomorrow's Agni level is at 3888, hold on longs for at least 4232, Sudha Rishabham centre point.

Monday strategy

Even after last Friday's last hour fall, Nifty closed at 4004 which is above the Agni level for tomorrow at 3945. As far as it holds you can keep the longs, Nifty may bounce back. If Nifty breaks that level close all longs and go short.

Unexpected last 40 minutes sell off

Opening with a gain of 29 points, till 13.30 Nifty today (10-7-09) moved in the range 4070 - 4110. After that it moved up to 4130 by 14.14, stayed there for a few minutes and slowly started to move down and by 14.50 reached at 4092. Thereafter market saw a basket sell off which pushed Nifty down to 3977 by 15.15 ie. 115 points fall just within 25 minutes. Movement of Nifty up to 14.50 did not gave any indication of a large scale fall and there was no reason that can be attributed to it. It seems FIIs or some other large scale institution had sold Nifty futures, Call options (OI addition of 8.4 lacs in 4100 call and 4.3 lacs in 4000 call seen) and thereafter sold equities heavily to to bring down the market. Media can say "profit booking" dragged Nifty down; but, the last hour large scale selling does not seems to be a normal profit booking. Therefore, indications of up moves may go wrong in such situations as of today.