For Nifty, upside is now limited

During the last fortnight from new-moon day(10th April) to full-moon day(25th April) Nifty zoomed from 5477 to 5925. In addition to new-moon day, on 10th April there was conjunction of Moon with Mars & Venus and Nifty recorded the lowest(5477) for the year. On 26th April (Friday) after moving in the range 5861 - 5907 Nifty closed at 5871. Nifty futures range was 5877 - 5920. One noteworthy fact was "eventhough it was an Exceptional Friday (being the next day after F&O expiry) the Exceptional Friday Effect(intraday up move of 50-100 points) was missing. That with RSI @ 71.91 (refer last link - chartink graph) clearly indicates that the upside for Nifty is limited, may be closing / daily average at centre of P(5952). As RBI credit policy is due on next Friday(3rd May 2013) a down move is around the corner. Be cautious. Agni level for Monday is at 5965.

Nifty closes below Agni level ( after 9 days)

After 9 days Nifty closed below Agni level on Tuesday, the 23rd April,2013. Nifty close was at 5837 against the Agni level at 5883 indicating the termination of the up trend. Nifty and Nifty futures ranges on 23rd April 13 were 5792 - 5844 and 5796 - 5852 reapectively. As F&O April series ends on next trading day, very high volatality can be expected.

Wish you all a Happy Vishu & Prosperous New Year

Malayalam New Year starts on Vishu Day. On this day the Sun transits from Pisces to Aries(the Sun at Zero degree) and in Kerala the Sun will be exactly over the head at noon. So, it can be seen that the Malayalam calendar is the most scientific and its approach is proclaimed by the flowering of Kani Konna ( Casia Fistula). More details on Vishu can be had from earlier posts or a google search.
Wish you all a Happy Vishu and Prosperous New Year.

Stock Market Dynamics

Technicians frustrated as markets ignore sell signals : A laundry list of widely followed chart signals are screaming ‘sell’. But lately whenever stocks pull back, investors are waiting, telling their brokers ‘buy’. That’s making the stock market rally a frustrating experience for many technicians. They believe what their charts are telling them, but the market isn’t cooperating. (page 8, Business Line dated 12-4-13)

When all technical analysts yell “SELL” only a few can sell; because, to take place a transaction a buyer is a must. If all traders wanted to sell a stock and there is nobody to buy, nobody can sell. This is also true when everybody yells for a “BUY”. So, whenever more than 80% of total traders wanted to sell or buy, the number of transactions decreases and between 95% to 100 % the volume reduces to zero. And when 100% traders wanted to sell/buy no transaction takes places and price stands still. Then market dynamics acts upon and slowly sellers turn buyers and price moves up. And when prices move up, more sellers become buyers and reverse process (short covering) starts spiraling prices quickly. Remember this and be a buyer/seller of a fundamentally strong stock whenever 95 – 100 % traders wanted to sell/buy.

Nifty closes at 5555

On Friday(5-4-13) Nifty closed at 5553( ie. 5555 - 11th figure in the table posted on 1st Januray, 2013). Nifty and Nifty futures ranges were 5535 - 5577 and 5553 - 5594 respectively. The closing figure 5553 has two other connections - it's near the daily average @ 5556 and exactly at the centre of the lower part of M2( 5464 + (5642-5464)/2 ). Therefore, Nifty closing is at a very important point and further downward move may take it to 5464 in the week ahead. Agni level for Monday is at 5590.

Though the down move was expected in the second week of April it started in the first week itself - may be FIIs seeing the Grahanila post became nervous and started to sell.

Grahanila(Planetary positions) as on 1st April 2013

As on 1st April, 2013 Sun, Venus & Mars in Pisces, Ketu in Aries, Jupiter in Taurus, Saturn & Rahu in Libra, Moon in Scorpio and Mercury in Aquarius. Planetary transits in April 2013 are 9th Mercury -> Pisces, 10th Venus -> Aries, 12th Mars -> Aries, 14th Sun -> Aries and 28th Mercury -> Aries.
After 14th April 2013 as the Sun, Venus, Mars and Mercury transits to Aries where Ketu is present and retrograde Saturn & Rahu is in Libra (180 degrees from Aries) natuaral calamities (earth quack, storm, heavy rain etc.) and political disturbances including war can be expected. And market may swing down wards. This congregation is almost similar to May-June 2012 when Nifty moved down to 4770(4th June,2012). Therefore, fresh down move may start in the second week of this month.