RBI leaves key rates untouched - Volatile market

Today(31-7-12) RBI reduced Statutory Liquidity Ratio(SLR)1% to 23% and left key rates untouched. Nifty opened at 5218 with a gain of 18 points, on RBI announcement moved down to 5154(-46), moved up to 5236(+36) and closed at 5229 with a gain of 29 points. Nifty futures range was 5168 - 5247, having a difference of 79 points. However, true volatility was 100 points(18+46+36=100). One more aspect observed recently(including today) was when ever the difference between Nifty futures and Agni level is more than 120 points Nifty looses its strength and comes down. Today when Nifty futures was at 5244 the difference was 145(5244 - 5099) and it reduced to 69 points at 11:40. Tomorrow's Agni level is at 5174.

Nifty closes at 5200

Today(30-7-12)Nifty opened at 5130 with a gain of 30 points, moved upwards steadily to 5207 and closed at 5200 with a gain of 100 points. Nifty futures range was 5150 - 5224, a difference of 74 points. Tomorrow's Agni level is at 5099. (Note: read chart date as 30th July, 2012)

Highly volatile week ahead

Friday (27-7-12) on global cues Nifty opened at 5131 with a gain of 88 points, moved up further to 5150(+107), moved down to 5078, moved up and closed at 5100 with a gain of 57 points. Nifty futures range was 5096 - 5180, having a difference of 84 points. As RBI is to announce credit policy review on 31st, market may be highly volatile next week. Agni level for Monday is at 5039.

Nifty closes in G2

Today(26-7-12) F&O July series settlement day Nifty opened at 5126 with a gain of 16 points, declined to negative territory & moved in the range 5092 - 5106 up to 14:00, moved down swiftly to 5032(Soma level was 5027) and closed at 5043 with a loss of 67 points. Nifty futures range was 5124 -> 5034, a straight decline of 90 points. As Nifty closed in G2 Nifty may move to centre of G2(4960) in coming days. Agni level for tomorrow is at 5019.

Nifty moves and closes in red as expected

Today(25-7-12) Nifty opened at 5122 with a loss of 6 points, moved down to 5077(-51 points), moved up to 5119 and closed at 5110 with a loss of 10 points. As anticipated in Grahanila post dated 1st July Nifty was in red through out the day and closed down in G2(below 5123). And the daily average was 5099. Nifty futures range was 5078 - 5126, having a difference of 48 points. Tomorrow being F&O settlement day Nifty may be highly volatile and Agni level is at 5082.

Nifty closes flat at 20x

Today(24-7-12) Nifty opened at 5129 and closed at 5128 with a gain of 10 points. In between Nifty moved down to 5103(-15 points)at 13:25 and up to 5144(+26 points). Nifty futures range was 5107 - 5153, having a difference of 46 points. No change in the view expressed yesterday. Tomorrow's Agni level is at 5140.

Nifty moves down to Soma level

Today(23-7-12) Nifty opened at 5155 with a loss of 50 points, moved downwards steadily to 5108 and closed at 5118, (Soma level was @ 5117) with a loss of 87 points. Nifty futures range was 5174 -> 5112, having difference of 62 points. As Nifty closing is below Agni level and also bottom of M1(5123) Nifty may continue its down move tomorrow (Refer Grahanila post also). Tomorrow's Agni level is at 5179.

Nifty remains in M1

Friday(20-7-12) Nifty closed at 5205 with a loss of 38 points after moving between 5198 - 5239. Nifty futures range was 5206 - 5249, having a difference of 43 points. Last week Nifty remained in the range 5169 - 5258, a sub range of bottom of M1(5123) and centre of M1(5286). However on 18th the average was @ 5196 lowest in July 2012, the day on low of the week 5169 was touched. Next week, since F&O settlement is due Nifty may be volatile and watch for the break of the range mentioned above to move with it. Agni level for Monday is at 5210.

Nifty moves in a narrow range and closes @ 5243

Today(19-7-12) Nifty moved in a narrow range 5233 - 5258 and closed at 5243 with a gain of 27 points. Nifty futures also moved in a narrow range 5243 - 5268, a difference of just 25 points, lowest for the last one and half years. So, tomorrow's difference will be more than 80 points, the direction of which will be known tomorrow only. Tomorrow's Agni level is at 5190.

Nifty closes above 5200 again

Today(18-7-12) Nifty opened at 5204 with a gain of 11 points, moved down to 5169, moved up to 5223 and closed at 5216 with a gain of 23 points. Nifty futures range was 5177 - 5237, a difference of 60 points. Tomorrow's Agni level is at 5161.

Nifty closes flat, above Agni level

Today(17-7-12)Nifty opened at 5237 with a gain of 40 points, moved down steadily to 5182 and closed flat at 5193, above Agni level(5184). Nifty futures range was 5248 -> 5188, down move of 60 points. As Agni level is at 5146 hold longs when Nifty remains above it.

Nifty closes at 5197

Today(16-7-12)Nifty opened at 5247 with a gain of 20 points, moved down to 5190 and closed at 5197 with a loss of 30 points. Mini Nifty futures range was 5198 - 5260 (Nifty futures figures were not taken because at the opening itself it showed 5175.05). As tomorrow's Agni level is at 5184, go long if Nifty remains above it.

Nifty closes flat

Friday(13-7-12)Nifty closed flat at 5227 after moving in the range 5217 - 5267. Nifty futures range was 5228 - 5277. As inflation numbers are due on Monday volatile movement expected and tomorrow's Agni level is at 5252.

Nifty closes below centre of M1

Today(12-7-12) Nifty opened at 5234 with a loss of 72 points, moved in the range 5218 - 5262 and closed near to opening level at 5235 with a loss of 71 points. Nifty futures range was 5229 - 5280. Agni level for tomorrow is at 5271.

Nifty closes at 5306, below Agni level

Today(11-7-12)Nifty moved in the narrow range 5300 - 5336 and closed at 5306 (below Agni level)with a loss of 39 points. Nifty futures range was 5313 - 5352. As Infosys, TCS results and IIP data are due for tomorrow Nifty may be highly volatile. Go long only if Nifty moves above tomorrow's Agni level(5315).

Nifty closes at 5345

Today(10-7-12)Nifty opened at 5287 with a gain of 12 points, moved in the range 5285 - 5311 up to 13:30, surged thereafter to 5349 and closed at 5345 with a gain of 70 points. Nifty futures range was 5280 - 5364, having a difference of 84 points. Agni level for tomorrow is at 5333.

Nifty closes at centre of M1

Today(9-7-12)Nifty opened at 5282 with a loss of 35 points and closed at 5275 with a loss of 42 points. Nifty and Nifty futures ranges were 5258 - 5301 and 5263 - 5318 respectively. Tomorrow's Agni level is at 5356.

Nifty closes flat on Friday

Friday(6-7-12)Nifty opened flat, remained in the negative territory and closed at 5317 with a loss of 10 points. Nifty and Nifty futures ranges were 5288 - 5327 and 5297 - 5340 respectively. Agni level for Monday is at 5356. Nifty position from June 4th to Jul 6th mapped on Nifty music scale is given below. After its upward movement to centre of M1(5286) Nifty may indicate its further direction in coming weeks. Incidentally on 5th June Singapore Nifty marked a low of 4913 in September series and if Nifty moves downward this can be a target.

Barbarika - transmitter of epic war @ Kurukshetra

Story of Barbarika : Barbarika was son of Ghatotkacha and grand son of Bhima . He was one of the heroes of Mahabharata who never got his due in history of time. Even in his childhood, Barbarika was a very brave warrior. He learnt the art of warfare from his mother Kamkantkata Ma Morwi. God Shiva, pleased with him, gave him the three infallible arrows (Teen Baan). Hence, Barbarika came to be known by the appellation Teen Baandhaari, the "Bearer of Three Arrows". Later, Agni (the god of Fire) gave him the bow that would make him victorious in the three worlds. While seeking blessings from his mother Barbarika wowed that he will always fight from losing side. When Barbarika heard the news of beginning of the great war, he wanted to participate in it. At Kurukshetra (the battle field of Mahabharata) Krishna asked Barbarika to pierce all the leaves of a ‘Peepal’ tree to demonstrate his skill. While Barbarika was chanting the mantra just before releasing the arrow, Krishna took one leaf of the tree and hid it under his foot. Barbarika released the arrow and it did what it meant, after piercing all the leaves it started revolving around Krishna’s feet. The demonstration of this skill surprised everyone who witnessed. Barbarika claimed that he could finish the war in just few hours Krishna knew that this warrior has capacity to diminish any side, and so the other side will always be the losing one. And if Barbarika changes sides to fulfill the pledge given to his mother, he will kill every one in both sides of the war. Krishna foresaw the consequences of allowing Barbarika to participate in the war and decided that Barbarika should be avoided. He asked Barbarika, to whom he considers his guru. He replied that all the skills he earned keeping only lord Krishna in his mind, so he, lord Krishna, is the prime guru. Then Krishna asked for gurudakshina (gift asked by teachers for their teachings). He asked head of Barbarika as gurudakshina. Barbarika took no time to cut his head and gave it to Krishna on his own and in return Krishna granted him a wish to live till battle of Mahabharata ends and watch the same from a nearby mountain. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Nandi’s comments : Barbarika had the weapons, skill and power more than required for the epic war of Mahabharatha – only due to this Krishna decided to keep him away from the war. If he had participated in the war, the result would have been different as Krishna thought. Krishna’s favorite Arjuna wouldn’t have become a hero and all other warriors including Abhimanyu would have been eclipsed by Barbarika. Though every Indian remembers Eakalavaya for giving his right thumb as gurudakshina to Dronacharya many people do not remember Barbarika who gave his head as gurudakshina. Nandi feels that Barbarika had another important mission to fulfill and he will be remembered in the years to come – as a human transmitter in the Mahabharata era. After reading Mahabharata Nandi was fascinated by two items – Krishna’s “Sudarshana Chakra”, which can destroy enemies and return in tact to the owner and “Divyachakshus” given by Krishna to Sanjaya, the sarati (driver) of King Dritarastra. Epic war of Mahabharata was written as viewed by Sanjaya through this Divyachakshus and told to blind King Dritarastra. Nandi felt that Divyachakshus is an instrument more advanced than our 3G mobile phone. It was compact and capable of receiving signals from distant places(without towers). Then the question arises “who sent the signals ?” Barbarika is the answer to this question and that’s why Krishna selected the best one from among the warriors and placed his head atop a mountain giving blessing to witness he war.

Nifty closes at 5327

Today(5-7-12)Nifty closed at 5327 with a gain of 24 points. Nifty and Nifty futures ranges were 5289 - 5334 and 5308 - 5355 respectively. Agni level for Friday is at 5369.

Nifty closes at 5303

Today(4-7-12)Nifty closed at 5303 with a gain of 15 points, below the Agni level at 5336. Nifty and Nifty futures ranges were 5273 - 5318 and 5287 - 5332 respectively. Tomorrow's Agni level is at 5383.

Nifty closes at centre of M1(5286)

Today(3-7-12)Nifty closed at 5288, ie. at centre of M1(5286) with a gain of 9 points, against the anticipation of a down move and a red close. Though Nifty lost 33 points at 14:00 it was recouped before closing. Today's Nifty and Nifty futures ranges were 5266 - 5317 and 5272 - 5334 respectively. Tomorrow's Agni level is at 5336. Yesterday's(2-7-12) table given below for reference purpose.

Grahanila(Planetary positions) as on 1st July, 2012

As on 1st July, 2012 Sun is in Gemini, Mercury in Cancer, Mars & Saturn in Virgo, Rahu & Moon in Scorpio and Ketu & Jupiter & Venus in Taurus.

Probable Nifty down days in July 2012 are 3rd and 25th.