Wish you all a Happy & Luck(shm)y New Year

Wish you all a Merry Christmas

Grahanila(Planetary positions) as on 1st Dec 2012

As on 1st December, 2012 Sun & Rahu in Scorpio, Mars in Sagitarius, Jupiter & Ketu in Taurus, Moon in Gemini and Saturn, Mercury & Venus in Libra. Planetary transits in December 2012 are 6th Mercury -> Scorpio, 11th Venus -> Scorpio, 16th Sun -> Sagitarius, 18th Mars -> Capricorn, 23rd Rahu -> Libra and 27th Mercury -> Sagitarius.

During December 2012 also as the Sun & Rahu in the same house and all major planets near Rahu-Ketu, continuation of natuaral calamities(earthquack, storm, heavy rain etc.) and political disturbunces expected. And market may be highly volatile. More prominent actions will be near conjunction dates and full moon. The planetary positions given are at the time of sunrise in India(Kerala) and conjunction effects may be seen on the countries (Asia or Europe or US) over which conjunction take places. It may effect Nifty on that day if the difference is less than 5 degrees and next day otherwise.

Further, as per Mayan calendar 5126 year cycle ends on 21st December, 2012 and a few groups expect passing through a difficult period which may transform the world. While studying in secondary school way back in 1962, Nandi thought that Sun may be orbiting some other star(he named it "Bala") similar to Moon's orbit around Earth and Earth's orbit around the Sun. Later, he gathered that Sun orbits around "Vela", a constellation which is forming part of the milky way. In that case, though we feel that we are in the same position in the universe on every 21st December, it is not true - we may be in a different part of the universe on that day every year. It may be that we are passing through a powerful magnetic wave area or near to a powerful black hole, once in 5126 years. A google search for the date "21st December, 2012" will give you materials to ponder. A picture from one of the sites is given below.

EGOLESS TRADING OR MIDDLE PATH

After the freak Friday of 5th October 2012, on whch Nifty touched year's high of 5815, Nifty daily average just remained in the madhyasthayi(middle)of M2(5464-5642-5797) between 5553(ie. 5642-5464)/2 + 5464)and 5720(ie. (5797-5642)/2 + 5642). Today's Nifty range was 5736 - 5834 and daily average 5785, just below top of M2. Tomorrow's Nifty movement may indicate whether it may move to P(5797-5952-6154). During this period of around two months EGOLESS TRADING OR MIDDLE PATH (which is detailed in the table "NIFTY FUTURES TRADING BASED ON AGNI, 4DMA & EMA10" above)would have been most profitable. In this method you may not have got the joy/happiness for achieving your targets that you have anounced earlier and boosted your EGO, but you will never have the unhappiness on incurring heavy losses. {The day trade method is just modification of day trading manthra AGNI BREAKS OPEN CYPHER.)

Grahanila(Planetary positions) as on 16th Nov 2012

As on 16th November, 2012(Vruschikom 1st as per Kolla varsham calendar) Sun, Mercury & Rahu in Scorpio,, Mars & Moon in Sagitarius, Jupiter & Ketu in Taurus, Venus in Virgo and Saturn in Libra. There was Moon-Mars conjunction today and Nifty closed at 5574 with a loss of 57 points. Nifty and Nifty futures ranges were 5650(2.00 p.m.)-> 5560(3.30 p.m) and 5664 -> 5568. Other details are in last Grahanila post.

WISH YOU ALL A HAPPY DIWALI

As we are different we see things differently!!!

It seems Malayalis are generally having pessimistic view on things. Good Friday is dukkha velliyazhcha (ദു:ഖ വെള്ളിയാഴ്ച)which means Sad Friday and New Moon is karuththa vavu (കറുത്ത വാവ് ) which means Black Moon. Sadly Nandi is one among them!

Grahanila(Planetary positions) as on 1st Nov 2012

As on 1st November, 2012 Sun & Saturn in Libra, Mercury, Mars & Rahu in Scorpio, Moon, Jupiter & Ketu in Taurus and Venus in Virgo. Planetary transits in November 2012 are 9th Mars -> Sagitarius, 16th Sun -> Scorpio, 17th Venus -> Libra, 18th Mercury -> Libra.

During November 2012 as the Sun and all major planets moves near to Rahu-Ketu natuaral calamities(earthquack, storm, heavy rain etc.) and political disturbunces can be expected. And market may be highly volatile and may swing down wards. More prominent actions will be near conjunction dates and full moon. The planetary positions given are at the time of sunrise in India(Kerala) and conjunction effects may be seen on the countries (Asia or Europe or US) over which conjunction take places. It may effect Nifty on that day if the difference is less than 5 degrees and next day otherwise.

Om Durgaye Namah - Wish you all a Happy Navaratri

Is it reverse of Gann table?

Please refer to post dated 1st July 2010 explaining Gann's Square of 9 and one day up one day down moves at that time. Now, from October 8 on wards one day up one day down move is going on in Nifty. This character is of 3rd level in Gann's table. If it is continuing as shown in the picture a fast down move may start from 25th October, 2012 as 24th is a holiday on account of Dasera festival. Let us watch how it develops.

FREAK FRIDAY AGAIN

There was a FREAK FRIDAY on 20th April 2012 similar to last FRIDAY, the 5th October 2012. On 20th April, 2012 at 2.30 p.m Nifty futures plunged 350 points from 5350 to 5000 while Nifty index was trading at 5325 levels(please refer post dated 22-4-2012)and Nifty low on that day was 5245. At that time it was written that "What ever may be the cause, we may be knowing it once the inquiry the NSE/SEBI is conducting is over." But, nothing was heard from NSE/SEBI till this day. Yesterday(5-10-12) at 9.51 a.m instead of Nifty futures Nifty Index itself tanked 900 points within just 2 minutes - see the table above to know the low and low percentage of 31 index stocks - on which Nifty index tanked 15.55% and Nifty hit lower circuit. Nifty and Nifty futures ranges were 5815 -> 4888 and 5855 -> 5732 respectively. It was later informed by NSE that a flash trade of 59 orders worth Rupees 650 crores entered from a brokers terminal was the cause of it and trading resumed after 15 minutes. The mere thought that any FII or large broker can drag Nifty 900 points (after shorting futures & buying puts) by placing an order for just Rupees 650 crores and amass a huge profit within 2 minutes is spine chilling. Then who will safe guard poor retailers ? Confidence is clearly lost on authorities who never full fill their promises (why they are unable to prevent such a thing after 20-4-12 freak trade in Nifty futures ?).

After the FREAK FRIDAY on 20th April, 2012 Nifty futures touched the low of that day ie. 5000 on 7th May 2012 and further moved down to 4770 on 4th June 2012. It may be noted that that freak trade was occurred just before alignment of Sun and planets in the proximity of Rahu-Ketu (refer May 2012 Grahanila post). Now also the freak trade ocurred before such an alignment in November 2012 (refer June 2012 Grahanila post) and it seems yesterdays low may be an indication of Nifty's target in coming months. It may also be noted that during the period 2005 - 2008 Nifty had many lower circuit breaks and after 2009 upper circuit break (UPA's election victory) there wasn't any till yesterday (Even though NSE approves the day's low of 4888, it does not concede that lower circuit was hit. Reasoning for that is only known to them). So anticipate a lower circuit break within two months. Don't panic, be ready to face it.

Nifty moves to top of M2(5797)

Today(4-10-12) Nifty has moved to top of M2(5797) as anticipated in the 22nd September 2012 post. Today's Nifty range was 5751 - 5807 and Nifty futures 5780 - 5842 having a difference of 62 points. There was an up move of around 600 points from 5215 to 5807 during the last one month. If Nifty continues to move upwards it may move to centre of P(5952) through 5824 and 5888.

Grahanila(Planetary positions) as on 1st Oct 2012

As on 1st October, 2012 The Sun & Mercury in Virgo, Saturn in Libra, Mars & Rahu in Scorpio, Moon in Pisces, Jupiter & Ketu in Taurus and Venus in Leo. Planetary transits in October 2012 are 1st Mercury -> Libra, 17th Sun -> Libra, 23rd Mercury -> Scorpio and Venus -> Virgo.

As per planetary conjunctions the probable down dates in October are 12th, 15th, 16th 18th and 29th.

Nifty after Blue Moon

After the Blue Moon on 31st August 2012, Nifty moved down to 5215 and thereafter surged 500 points. During the last three weeks Nifty (daily average) moved from the centre of M1 to centre of M2. Nifty may move to top of M2(5797) before the next full moon.

Happy Ganesh Chaturthi to all

Save retail investors trading in F&O

On Friday(14th September)there was a gap up opening of around 100 points in Nifty. On last Friday(7th September) gap up was 75 points. In earlier occasions there was gap down openings also of such magnitudes. Retail traders having positions in F&O are at heavy losses in such situations. On Monday also there may be a gap up opening of 75 - 100 points. It is seen that Nifty tend to move to the levels of Singapore Nifty at the opening and Friday closing of Singapore Nifty was at 5655. FIIs having branches in India and Singapore are able to reduce their losses or even make profits by trading at both the exchanges. Poor Indian retailers are destined to curse themselves and succumb to heavy losses. National Stock Exchange should come up to save retail F&O traders by introducing trading in F&O from 7.00 p.m. to 10.00 p.m.(T+1) and from 7.00 a.m., similar to Singapore Exchange.

Grahanila(Planetary positions) as on 1st Sept 2012

As on 1st September 2012 the Sun & Mercury in Leo, Saturn & Mars in Libra, Rahu in Scorpio, Moon in Aquarius, Jupiter & Ketu in Taurus and Venus in Cancer. This months transits are : 13th Mercury -> Virgo, 17th Sun -> Virgo, 28th Venus -> Leo & Mars -> Scorpio.

The probable down dates in September as per above are 12th eve, 18th, 20th and 30th. 19th is a holiday on account of Ganesh Chaturthi.

Nifty in Blue Moon month August 2012

Today(31-8-12) Blue Moon effect was more prominent and Nifty lost 57 points. Exceptional Friday effect(50 to 100 points up move - even intraday also) was missing. So, down move may continue.

Friday, 31st August 2012 - Blue Moon day

Most years have twelve full moons that occur once in a month, but some have extra, making it 13 instead of 12. That years will have two full moons in one calendar month, the second referred as Blue Moon. The rarity of it contributed the common saying "once in a blue moon." A Blue Moon occurs on this Friday, Aug 31, for the next you'll have to wait till July 31, 2015. The last Blue Moon was on 31st December 2009.
Tomorrow is also the last trading day of the month and an exceptional Friday (being the next Friday after F&O settlement). The second full moon was missed in August Grahanila post as one full was seen on 2nd August. So, need not say that the combined effect of exceptional Friday with a Blue Moon is totally unpredictable. As DOW is down more than 100 points now, definitely the start will be with a gap down.

Sare Jahan Se Acha Hindustan Hamara

Wish you all a Happy Independence Day - Sare Jahan Se Acha Hindustan Hamara

Nifty closes at 21x ie. 21 x 256 = 5376

Today(14-8-12) Nifty opened at 5343 with a loss of 5 points, moved in the range 5330 - 5356 up to 12:00, moved up to 5387 thereafter and closed at 5380 ( @ 21x ie. 21 x 256 = 5376) with a gain of 32 points. Nifty closed @21x last on 15th March 2012. Nifty futures range was 5356 - 5417, having a difference of 61 points. Premium was very high between 20 to 30 points through out the day. Though European and US markets were in red yesterday on the eve of Moon-Venus conjunction, its effect was not transmitted to Nifty as expected in Grahanila post, may be due to DOW's recovery from -90 to - 39. Thursday's Agni level is at 5368.

Note: due to time constraints, it may not be possible to post daily updates after Independence Day. Regret the inconvenience.

Nifty closes @ 5348-highest close for last 4 months

Today(13-8-12) Nifty opened at 5316 with a loss of 4 points, moved in the range 5309 - 5330 till last hour of trading, surged thereafter to 5352 and closed at 5348 with a gain of 28 points. The closing at 5348 is the highest close after 3rd April, 2012 (5359). Tomorrow's Agni level is at 5363.

Nifty closes flat @ 5320

Friday(10-8-12) Nifty opened at 5305 with a loss of 18 points, moved in the range 5294 - 5330 and closed flat at 5320 with a loss of 3 points. Nifty futures range was 5320 - 5360, having a difference of 40 points. Soma & Surya levels for the last three days were same which never happened before. That means market is waiting for direction. As Moon - Venus conjunction is due on Monday evening Nifty may move down on that day or next day. Agni level for Monday is at 5379.

Nifty closes below Agni level

Today(9-8-12)Nifty opened at 5348 with a gain of 10 points, moved between 5312 - 5368 and closed at 5323, below Agni level(5347) with a loss of 15 points. Nifty futures range was 5332 - 5384, having a difference of 48 points. Tomorrow's Agni level is at 5383.

Nifty closes flat

Today(8-8-12)Nifty opened at 5340 with gain of 3 points and closed flat at 5338. Nifty and Nifty futures ranges were 5331 - 5378 and 5346 - 5394, having a difference of 48 points. Tomorrow's Agni level is at 5347.

Nifty closes @ 5337

Today(7-8-12)Nifty opened at 5298 with a gain of 15 points, moved down to 5282, moved up steadily to 5350 and closed at 5337 with a gain of 54 points. Nifty futures range was 5295 - 5367, having a difference of 72 points. Tomorrow's Agni level is at 5310.

Nifty closes at cenre of M1(5286)

Today(6-8-12) Nifty opened at 5261 with a gain of 45 points, moved up to 5293 and closed at 5283, at centre of M1(5286) with a gain of 67 points. Nifty futures range was 5278 - 5310, having a difference of 32 points. Tomorrow's Agni level is at 5287.

Nifty reverses and closes above 5200

Friday(3-8-12) Nifty opened at 5196 with a loss of 32 points, moved down to 5165, moved up to 5220 and closed at 5216 with a loss of 12 points. Nifty futures open & low was at 5100 which is a freak trade. Mini Nifty futures(used in the table) range was 5177 - 5247, having a difference of 70 points. Tomorrow's Agni level is at 5289 and Nifty may move towards that figure.
A study regarding the relation of Agni level with Nifty was done using the table given below and the intra-day movements of Nifty to answer a query in comments column. Out of 29 days where the difference between Agni level and Nifty was more than 120 points Nifty reversed in 11 days only. So, the answer given is quoted below for the benefits of all.
"If the difference between Agni level and Nifty is more than 120 points, chances for taking a reverse position exits provided a)that level is achieved before 12:00 noon b) Nifty reverses more than 20 points. On 27th,30th July and on 3rd August chances were there."

Full Moon Day - Nifty in red

Today(2-8-12) a Full Moon day, Nifty remained in red and closed in red at 5228 with a loss of 13 points. Nifty and Nifty futures ranges were 5210 - 5237 and 5222 - 5252, having a difference of 30 points. In many occasions Full Moon / New Moon act as a trend breaker and Nifty may continue its down ward movement. Interestingly, tomorrow Saturn transits to Libra and the last time it happened was on 15-11-2011, the day on which Nifty lost 80 points. Further, Nifty closed in red from 9th to 21st November 2011 and during that period Nifty lost 450 points. Remain in short till Agni level gives a buy and tomorrow's Agni level is at 5313.
Yesterday's(1-8-2012) table given below for reference purpose.

Grahanila(planetary positions) as on 1st August 2012

As on 1st August 2012 the Sun & Mercury in Cancer, Mars & Saturn in Virgo, Rahu in Scorpio, Moon in Capricornus, Jupiter and Ketu in Taurus and Venus in Gemini.

Probable down dates in August 2012 as per above are 2nd(Full Moon), 14th(Venus) and 22nd(Mars & Saturn).

RBI leaves key rates untouched - Volatile market

Today(31-7-12) RBI reduced Statutory Liquidity Ratio(SLR)1% to 23% and left key rates untouched. Nifty opened at 5218 with a gain of 18 points, on RBI announcement moved down to 5154(-46), moved up to 5236(+36) and closed at 5229 with a gain of 29 points. Nifty futures range was 5168 - 5247, having a difference of 79 points. However, true volatility was 100 points(18+46+36=100). One more aspect observed recently(including today) was when ever the difference between Nifty futures and Agni level is more than 120 points Nifty looses its strength and comes down. Today when Nifty futures was at 5244 the difference was 145(5244 - 5099) and it reduced to 69 points at 11:40. Tomorrow's Agni level is at 5174.

Nifty closes at 5200

Today(30-7-12)Nifty opened at 5130 with a gain of 30 points, moved upwards steadily to 5207 and closed at 5200 with a gain of 100 points. Nifty futures range was 5150 - 5224, a difference of 74 points. Tomorrow's Agni level is at 5099. (Note: read chart date as 30th July, 2012)

Highly volatile week ahead

Friday (27-7-12) on global cues Nifty opened at 5131 with a gain of 88 points, moved up further to 5150(+107), moved down to 5078, moved up and closed at 5100 with a gain of 57 points. Nifty futures range was 5096 - 5180, having a difference of 84 points. As RBI is to announce credit policy review on 31st, market may be highly volatile next week. Agni level for Monday is at 5039.

Nifty closes in G2

Today(26-7-12) F&O July series settlement day Nifty opened at 5126 with a gain of 16 points, declined to negative territory & moved in the range 5092 - 5106 up to 14:00, moved down swiftly to 5032(Soma level was 5027) and closed at 5043 with a loss of 67 points. Nifty futures range was 5124 -> 5034, a straight decline of 90 points. As Nifty closed in G2 Nifty may move to centre of G2(4960) in coming days. Agni level for tomorrow is at 5019.

Nifty moves and closes in red as expected

Today(25-7-12) Nifty opened at 5122 with a loss of 6 points, moved down to 5077(-51 points), moved up to 5119 and closed at 5110 with a loss of 10 points. As anticipated in Grahanila post dated 1st July Nifty was in red through out the day and closed down in G2(below 5123). And the daily average was 5099. Nifty futures range was 5078 - 5126, having a difference of 48 points. Tomorrow being F&O settlement day Nifty may be highly volatile and Agni level is at 5082.

Nifty closes flat at 20x

Today(24-7-12) Nifty opened at 5129 and closed at 5128 with a gain of 10 points. In between Nifty moved down to 5103(-15 points)at 13:25 and up to 5144(+26 points). Nifty futures range was 5107 - 5153, having a difference of 46 points. No change in the view expressed yesterday. Tomorrow's Agni level is at 5140.

Nifty moves down to Soma level

Today(23-7-12) Nifty opened at 5155 with a loss of 50 points, moved downwards steadily to 5108 and closed at 5118, (Soma level was @ 5117) with a loss of 87 points. Nifty futures range was 5174 -> 5112, having difference of 62 points. As Nifty closing is below Agni level and also bottom of M1(5123) Nifty may continue its down move tomorrow (Refer Grahanila post also). Tomorrow's Agni level is at 5179.

Nifty remains in M1

Friday(20-7-12) Nifty closed at 5205 with a loss of 38 points after moving between 5198 - 5239. Nifty futures range was 5206 - 5249, having a difference of 43 points. Last week Nifty remained in the range 5169 - 5258, a sub range of bottom of M1(5123) and centre of M1(5286). However on 18th the average was @ 5196 lowest in July 2012, the day on low of the week 5169 was touched. Next week, since F&O settlement is due Nifty may be volatile and watch for the break of the range mentioned above to move with it. Agni level for Monday is at 5210.

Nifty moves in a narrow range and closes @ 5243

Today(19-7-12) Nifty moved in a narrow range 5233 - 5258 and closed at 5243 with a gain of 27 points. Nifty futures also moved in a narrow range 5243 - 5268, a difference of just 25 points, lowest for the last one and half years. So, tomorrow's difference will be more than 80 points, the direction of which will be known tomorrow only. Tomorrow's Agni level is at 5190.

Nifty closes above 5200 again

Today(18-7-12) Nifty opened at 5204 with a gain of 11 points, moved down to 5169, moved up to 5223 and closed at 5216 with a gain of 23 points. Nifty futures range was 5177 - 5237, a difference of 60 points. Tomorrow's Agni level is at 5161.

Nifty closes flat, above Agni level

Today(17-7-12)Nifty opened at 5237 with a gain of 40 points, moved down steadily to 5182 and closed flat at 5193, above Agni level(5184). Nifty futures range was 5248 -> 5188, down move of 60 points. As Agni level is at 5146 hold longs when Nifty remains above it.

Nifty closes at 5197

Today(16-7-12)Nifty opened at 5247 with a gain of 20 points, moved down to 5190 and closed at 5197 with a loss of 30 points. Mini Nifty futures range was 5198 - 5260 (Nifty futures figures were not taken because at the opening itself it showed 5175.05). As tomorrow's Agni level is at 5184, go long if Nifty remains above it.

Nifty closes flat

Friday(13-7-12)Nifty closed flat at 5227 after moving in the range 5217 - 5267. Nifty futures range was 5228 - 5277. As inflation numbers are due on Monday volatile movement expected and tomorrow's Agni level is at 5252.