Nifty below Agni level & in Sudha Rishabham

As anticipated Nifty today(30-6-09)opened at 4427 and steadily declined and at 15.15 it was at 4267. Then it climbed to 4306 and closed the day at 4291 with a loss of 100 points. Now Nifty is in Sudha Rishabham and below the Agni level for tomorrow at 4365. Further slide down is expected. Moving down below 4100 (Shadjam area)will take it to 3790(Shadjam lower boarder) and may be further down.

Nifty closes flat - Agni level rises to 4382

Today(29-6-09) Nifty closed at 4391 just 15 points above yesterday closing. Nifty opened at 4386, moved down to 4358, then moved up to 4440 and from 14.45 slumped to 4376 discarding entire gains made today and was near that level at 15.30 (closing was improved due to averaging). Hence, Nifty is likely to move down further tomorrow. Agni level for tomorrow is at 4382 and when Nifty moves below that level, exit all longs and shift to short.

Exceptional Friday Effect - Nifty in Chatu. Rishabham

Today(26-6-09)Nifty climbed 142 plus points compared to 151 plus points on the last similar Exceptional Friday on 29-5-09 and closed the day at 4376 with a gain of 134 points. {New visitors may note that "Exceptional Friday" is the Friday that comes after F&O settlement(No.1) and Friday that comes after three or four days continuous decline(No.2)}. Nifty opened at 4296 with a gain of 54 points, declined to 4255 and steadily moved up from 12.00 p.m. and reached 4384 at 15.15 (gain of 142 points) before closing at 4376 in Chatusruti Rishabham band width. Hope, the visitors of Vipani Sangeetham had noted the significance of "Exceptional Fridays" and utilised it beneficially.

Vipani Sangeetham expresses deep sorrow on the passing away of the greatest pop musical legend, world ever seen Michael Jackson in the early hours of today and believes that his name will live through till the world lasts, through his musical videos and albums. However, world misses him at this early age of 50. Musical World was eagerly awaiting for his European tour which has been scheduled for next month. May his soul rest in peace.

Nifty at closing time compared to opening is at same level

Today (24-6-09) Nifty opened at 4284 with a gain of 37 points, after moving down to 4218 and upwards up to 4307, at 15.30 it was at 4287 (just near the opening level). On averaging Nifty closed the day at 4293. Tomorrow being settlement day for June series derivatives, volatility can be expected in the range 4325 - 4230. Today's high was 4307 against the high of 4305 on 24th June,2008.(Yesterday Nandi mentioned the low only).

Nifty recovers and closes flat

As expected, at the opening today (23-6-09)Nifty plunged to 4143 and till 12.30 p.m. moved between 4161 and 4203. After 12.30 Nifty surged and at 15.00 it was at 4267. Then came the selling which dragged Nifty to 4227 at 15.30. Today's Nifty close is at 4247 with a gain of 12 points(Technically only due to averaging. If the position at 15.30 is to be taken it is at 4227 with a loss of 8 points). Yesterday and today Nifty's maximum plus points and minus points were almost same, but direction reversed. Nifty's maximum loss points yesterday and today were same at 92 points(-92)and gain points were 38 and 32 respectively.

Low of Nifty futures yesterday and today were 4225 and 4155 where as Nifty spot low on 23rd June 2008 and 24th June 2008 were 4225 and 4156 respectively. What a correlation !!!. Following that pattern Nifty may go down to 4093 tomorrow if today morning's situation prevails tomorrow. Let us see.

Last Friday's up move fizzles out

Unable to move to Chatusruti Rishabham band width (above 4348) Nifty today (22-6-09) moved down to 4222 and closed at 4235,near Sudha Rishabham centre point (4232). As lower level of Sudha Risbhabham is at 4100, Nifty may move to 4150-4100 area tomorrow. Friday's last hour up move of more than 100 points to the 4320 area and closing at 4314 gave an impression that Nifty may cross 4350 area today. But it didn't. Hence, the view expressed on 21st June is invalidated and earlier view holds good. It will be interesting to note that the low on 23-6-08 was 4225.50 where as today's is 4221.90. Nifty low on 24-6-08 and 25-6-08 were 4156.10 and 4093.20 respectively. Let us see where it ends this time.

Exceptional Friday Effect came in last hour

Till 14.40 on last Friday (19-6-09) Nifty was at 4216. After that creating a giraffe like image in Nifty chart it soared to 4326 before closing at 4314 with a gain of 63 points. This up move may continue for a few days, may be up to the end of the week. Watch Agni level and trade accordingly.

Exceptional Friday - Nifty above Agni level

Today's (18-6-09) Nifty close is at 4251 against tomorrow's Agni level at 4246, which means Nifty has emerged out of "Agni level" after 5 days. Further, during the ensuing week Nifty was in red for three days and the gain on Tuesday was very small resulting a net loss of 330 points. So, 2nd rule of Exceptional Friday fits to it. Hence, expect a strong up move tomorrow. This up move will be limited for one or two days only and take this as an opportunity to sell. The fall will continue there after.

Today's fall was almost similar to yesterday's, including the starting time of major fall ie. just before 12.30 p.m. Hence, leaving all that details and waiting for tomorrow.

Down movement to Shadjam level started !!!

Up to 12.30 p.m. today (17-6-09) Nifty slowly moved up from 4466 to 4518 (yesterday closing level ie. loss - Nil) and it seemed a positive closing is on the anvil. Then selling started and Nifty started to plunge. Selling followed and by 15.30 Nifty slipped down to 4333 (loss of 185 points from yesterday closing),and after averaging closed at 4356 with a loss of 162 points. 100 points loss came from 14.15 to 15.30. The fall was similar to the fall on Monday the 8th June,2009, the day on which Nifty closed with a loss of 157 points. It is felt that today's fall is the beginning of the correction that may take Nifty to the Shadjam area 4100-3800 as mentioned earlier or below that level.

Today's high of 4518 did not generate a buy signal as Agni level today was at 4532. Tomorrow's Agni level also plunged to 4391 as also Soma-Surya levels. That means large players in the market has started to cope up with the fall in the market. Now it is a sell only market, sell at every rise. Watch Agni level and trade accordingly.

Under the caption "Yada Yada Hi Dharmassya" Nandi had mentioned that in Nifty future day trading (not positional; positional should be based on Agni level only) 8/16 points reversal may be taken as trend reversal. After so many days observations it is seen that 20/24 points are the correct one. 20 points for buy/sell from the bottom/top and 24 points Stop Loss. Move the stop loss towards the direction of the market when Nifty future moves 20 points plus so that the gain is protected(but always remember that Stop Loss should have 24 points difference from the high or low achieved so far). If net connection is available in the trading hours you can confirm your position by checking "http://truedataindia.com/ page.php?p=15". Today's Nifty future low in the morning was 4467 and Nandi bought MiniNifty when Nifty future moved up from 4488. It went up to 4523, started to coming down, Nandi put a stop loss at 4499 and it hit. Actually it was a sell at 4503 (4523-20=4503)which Nandi didn't attempt since the fall as witnessed was not expected today. Correct way is just move with the market by checking whether earlier upper/lower level is breaking. The difference in a day between upper and lower levels in Nifty futures generally may vary from 64 to 192 points.

Repeatition of last week movements.

Just before the opening of NSE today(16-6-09) Singapore Nifty was trading 105 points below yesterday close, DOW Jones was down around 200 points, all Asian markets down and Hangseng more than 500 points. All these indicated a heavy fall around 150 points and close far below yesterday close. But, Nifty falling to the level of 4406 (78 points down)in the opening, stayed near the 4450 levels for a few minutes, gradually moved up to positive zone before 12.00 noon. Then it climbed to 4528 (44 points above yesterday closing level or 122 points from the low of today), slightly came down and closed at 4518 with a gain of 34 points from the yesterday close. Clearly yesterday's and today's movements of Nifty had close similarity to the movements of last Monday and Tuesday, but off course with lesser magnitude. As such Nifty should move up tomorrow and close above 4550. Nifty moving above 4700 again during this/next week cannot be ruled out. Even though Nifty moved down around 300 points, Surya level stayed almost same indicating a bounce. Earlier in no occasion Nifty did move down more than 50 points from the Surya level. Today it was maximum around 110 points which didn't last long. Agni level for tomorrow is 4532 and Nifty moving above that level indicates a buy. The major fall may be in July or August.

Nifty back in Chatusruti Rishabham

Today(12-6-09) Nifty closed at 4583 which is in Chatusruti Rishabham band width. Last Friday(5-6-09)also Nifty closed at the same level ie. 4587. On the start of this week (Monday, 7th June,2009) Nifty closed at 4430 with a loss of 157 points. Whether it will be repeated next Monday? As Nifty closed below the Agni level, there is chances for the repetition of the same. But, Soma-Surya levels are not supporting that view. Both of them are almost at the same levels as that of today and that indicates recovery to today's opening levels. So, let us see what happens.

Today up to 12.00 p.m Nifty didn't show any weakness (ignoring 3 points minus at the start). At 12.00 p.m came the "waterfall" like down move which took Nifty from the day's high of 4693 to 4588 (loss of more than 100 points); that too within 40 minutes. The next down ward movement took Nifty to 4566 before closing at 4583. Thus, weekly gain or loss in Nifty is zero. So,let us wait up to Monday.

As Nifty skipped Shadjam (3800-4100)during the recent up move, it ought to move to that area. The time frame may be any time up to August.

Nifty in Gandharam

Yesterday Nifty gave a positive indication by moving above Agni level at close, after so many days, but feeble. Today (10-6-09)it was a strong day with gap up opening around 77 points and continued strong up move. Nifty moved in the range 4630 to 4690 and closed at 4655 with a gain of 104 points. Nifty's today close is in Gandharam (Gandharam range - Low:4611, Centre:4759, High: 4859) and it may remain in this range in coming days. Tomorrow's Agni level is at 4572 which is almost 80 points down from today's Nifty close.

Nifty above Agni level - but with small margin

As expected Nifty today (9-6-09)opened with a down ward move and touched 4365. Then, as anticipated steadily moved up, touched 4562 and closed at 4551 with a gain of 121 points. Out of 151 points lost yesterday Nifty today recovered 121 points. Nifty close at 4551 is above the Agni level for tomorrow at 4538, but with small margin (just 13 points only). Even though positive it must be confirmed tomorrow.

Today's Nifty future range was 4569 - 4385 with a difference of 184 points which is exactly divisible by 8.

Expected on Friday materialised on Monday

On 4th June 2009(Thursday) Nandi posted "So, tomorrow's(Friday) movement will be interesting. Let us see whether Nifty will breach 4450 level. However 4400 will give a good support." Today (8-6-09)Nifty breached 4450, slipped to 4405 and 4400 level held good. Nifty's high was 4611 at the start of the trading. Then it slipped gradually and the fall after 14.00 was very fast.Today's Nifty futures range was (rounded off to nearest Rupee) 4604 - 4412 having a difference of 192 points which is exactly divisible by 8 (192/8=24 ie. 12 Annas). Tomorrow's Agni level is at 4545 and Surya level is at 4345. So, Nifty may slip further down tomorrow and recover thereafter.

Nifty closes below Agni level - 5th day

On Friday (5-6-09) Nifty closed at 4587 with a gain of 14 points after moving in the positive territory most of the time, in the range 4562- 4637 - unlike the last three days. The Nifty high 4637 was reached at 14.12 and it declined very fast to reach 4564 by 14.40. Thereafter Nifty slightly moved up and closed at 4587. Even though Index moved in a range during the week passed by, many of the mid caps and small caps are continuing its upward swing even when Nifty is below Agni level. Hence this time exiting mid and small caps may result in loss of opportunity to gain. Vakransoft which is in 5% ceiling for the last 15 days is one such example. Tomorrow's Agni level is at 4632 which is above the Nifty close. Considering the fact that Nifty moved above that point on Friday, we are likely to get the direction of next move during the coming week. In the last post Nandi expected a down ward move as Nifty stayed below the Agni level and it was a normal Friday.

Nifty closes below Agni level - 4th day

Today (4-6-09) Nifty closed at 4573 with a gain of 42 points after moving similar to the day before yesterday(4512- 4453- 4582- 4573). Highs and lows reached on 2nd and today are 4586,4582 and 4451,4453 respectively.Timing was totally different.Tomorrow's Agni level is at 4664 which is above Nifty close. So, tomorrow's(Friday) movement will be interesting. Let us see whether it will breach 4450 level. However 4400 will give a good support.

Nifty closes flat below Agni level - 3rd day

Today (3-6-09) Nifty closed flat at 4531 after moving similar to yesterday, but with reduced spread (4575- 4479- 4535- 4531). Tomorrow's Agni level is at 4670 which is above Nifty close. Corrections are taking place, but intra day only. As 4400 put added five lakhs open interest today, it seems Nifty may not go below 4400 level. In every dip below 4500 buying is taking place and it pushes Nifty up. Agni level will come near to Nifty close if the flat closing repeats for two more days. Then it is a buy and Nifty will jump to Anthara Gandharam level.

Nifty close below Agni level - 2nd day

Today (2-6-09) Nifty closed at 4525 after almost a V-shape movement (4586- 4451- 4538- 4525). Tomorrow's Agni level is at 4633 which is high above Nifty close. Don't make any buy when Nifty is below the Agni level.

Nifty close below Agni level - Exit

Today (1-6-09) Nifty closed at 4530 after a volatile session. Today's Nifty range was 4476 to 4545. Tomorrow's Agni level is at 4558 which is not only above the Nifty close,but also the high reached today. Hence exit all longs if Nifty does not stay above Agni level. As mentioned on last Friday expect some downward movement, the target may perhaps in the Shadjam bandwidth. Let us see.