Great show of Exceptional Friday

Despite weak global cues and bearish sentiments, Nifty showed great power on the Exceptional Friday, the 30th Jan 2009 and marched ahead from the bottom of 2775 to 2880 and closed at 2875 with a gain of 51 points. After opening below the Agni level, Nifty slowly moved up and at around 12.00 p.m. marched above the Agni level and there after never returned to that level. This was a rare day and many who had exited in the opening had to re-enter when Nifty moved above Agni level. But, Monday's Agni level is at 2916, forty one points above the Nifty closing. There is very little chance Nifty may break that level and move up. So, it would be better to book profit and stay away. We must guard our capital tightly than trying to get some more and in the process loose what little we have. It is probable that Nifty may move to Sudha Daivatham level (3178) before going down to Shadjam level. As Rishabham in Sruti(frequency) scale and Edavam in Laya (Time factor) coincides during April-May, the fall should happen before that, may be shortly or during the next results/election season - and Nandi don't know exactly when! Hence the caution.
{Note: meaning of both Rishabham and Edavam are bul}

Nifty closes near Agni level

Today(29-1-09)even though Nifty opened with 22 points up, it could not retain the gain. Nifty gradually lowered, gone to negative territory and at 2.41 p.m it was at 2795. Then it moved a little bit up to 2832 and closed at 2824, just above the Agni level for tomorrow ie. 2822. Though tomorrow is an exceptional Friday, considering the recent failures and today's weak performance it is doubtful whether Nifty can move up and close with gain. It is advised to exit all longs including NIftybees when Nifty moves below Agni level.

Agni level below Nifty closing

On 23rd Jan, 2009 other than the usual Friday features, the day was studded with results of various companies most of them was below the expectation. Along with the results, global cues were also in favor of a down move and NIfty closed at 2679 with a loss of 35 points. However, the Agni level for 27th (Tuesday)is 2655, below the NIfty closing. Hence it is a buy time, provided Nifty does not go below 2655. No-moon day along with a Solar eclipse on Monday, the 26th Jan, 2009 supports the reversal of the current trend. Hence from Tuesday onwards Nifty is likely to move up slightly and the momentum will be gained after the F&O settlement day on 29th January, 2009.

Exit Niftybees when Nifty touches Agni level

Tomorrow's Agni level has risen to 2825 just 21 points lower than today's (19-1-09) closing of 2846. Therefore, if Nifty does not move up substantially tomorrow there are chances that Nifty may touch Agni level and generate sell signal. Hence if Nifty goes lower than 2825(wait up to 2817)all longs including Niftybees should be exited. As Dow Jones is closed today, Asian market opening trend will decide the course of Nifty.

Exceptional Friday , 16th January, 2009

16th January, 2009 was an Exceptional Friday, as most of the days Nifty was down during the week. Nifty opened in green and steadily moved up and closed the day at 2828. Niftybees closed the day at Rs.285.11 gaining eight rupees. Day before it's low came to Rs.273.00 as markets were down. On 13th (Tuesday) when Nifty crossed 2796 Nandi also bought Niftybees. But, Nifty didn't move beyond 2802, came lower and closed the day at 2745. On Friday also Nifty moved to 2809 and returned to 2787 before moving again upwards and closing the day at 2828. Observing the same, Nandi feels that we may have to consider the levels also having the width of one Anna (plus or minus 8 points from the level) and wait Nifty to move beyond 1/2 Anna (8 points) before executing the action suggested.
Next week Nifty may continue its up move for one or two days.

Nifty may emerge out of Agni level

Agni level for today(13-1-09) is 2796, just 23 points (1 Anna) above yesterday closing of 2773.%k of stochastic has also came down to 28. So, today or tomorrow Nifty may emerge out of Agni level giving signal for purchase. Be ready for purchase when Nifty moves above Agni level. Nandi prefers NIFTYBEES,(an Exchange Traded Fund,managed by Benchmark Mutual Fund and traded like any other stock in NSE) as it is directly linked to Nifty index and it has no connection with profit, debt, balance sheet, corporate governance etc. Therefore, it cannot become a (A)SATYAM. Buy as much NIFTYBEES as possible when Nifty emerges out of Agni level and sell it when Nifty touches Agni level next, provided you are in profit. It can be held as much period you want; since Niftybees is not having any expiry date. Approximate value of one NIFTYBEES will be one tenth (1/10) of Nifty index at any point of time. Since it is an ETF, price need not be multiples of 5 paise. For example yesterdays closing price is Rs.277.26. So bid price can be Rs.278.01

Mark Nifty points on stars using Rupee-Anna Scale

Nandi was saying “old” in brackets to denote that the “Swaram” is in the lower scale. Now he has decided to make it more explicit using “Rupee Anna” scale. For younger generations “Anna” (അണ) is a new word. It was a coin used in India till the introduction of decimal system in 1957. It is one sixteenth part of a British Rupee. Nandi feels that “Anna” can be used to divide 256 ( base frequency of carnatic music scale) in to 16 parts and to denote the closing value of Nifty with a maximum difference of 8 points. For example, the closing value of Nifty on 9th January, 2009 was 2873 and it will be denoted as “R11A4” meaning 11 Rupees and 4 Annas. Inversely Nifty points can be arrived at by multiplying value of R with 16 and adding value of A and multiplying the total with 16 ie. (11 x 16 + 4) x 16 = 2880. Off course the difference is just 7 points. This is required to track intra day variations in Nifty and to give a new dimension.

Today is a full moon day. When Moon is straight above your head, look at the moon, and draw 16 imaginary circles round the Moon to mark the Rupee value. Then draw 4 imaginary lines from the Moon to the end of the horizon in the four directions of East, North, West and South (anti clock wise). Divide each part into 4 segments. These 16 segments can be used to mark the value of Anna. Thus we will get 16 x 16 = 256 intersections to mark the Value of Nifty. If you can locate stars in those intersections it is fine indeed. Now we mark Nifty value of 2873 as R11A4 in the sky like an astronomical catalog. Those who are not lucky enough to see the beautiful Moon and clear sky can use the upper middle part of the Earth glob. Start from the North pole. Longitudes and Latitudes are already marked in it. Instead of stars you will land up in earth locations. That is also good.

Please wait and watch

On Friday (9-1-09) and there after the Nifty may continue its down ward journey as Agni level and stochastic figures are high. Nobody may be able to say exactly where it will end. If you have exited all longs when Nifty touched the Agni level, well and good. Please wait and watch till the picture becomes clear.

SATYAM (ASATYAM=FALSE) TRIGGERS FALL

As Agni level was above the Nifty and %k of slow stochastic was in overbought position (above 90), we were expecting the start of a downward movement in Nifty. But SATYAM (Satyam in sanskirt means truth) Chairman's resignation and later his statement that the accounts published were cooked up, triggered the fall. From 3147 Nifty crashed to 2889 and with a little bounce closed the day (7-1-09)at 2920. The Satyam story is definitely a black mark on Indian corporates and wonder how such things can happen in India with all these well qualified CAs and other regulatory authorities. Let us wait and see.

Surprise movement in the last 30 minutes.

Todays(5-1-09) was a whip-saw session. Even though Nifty opened 42 points high, by 10.20 a.m the gain reduced to just 10 points. During that period Agni level of 3075 was breached and exit became inevitable. Till 2.45 p.m. the Nifty was in the range of 3056-3099 and gave a feeling that the second stimulus package has limited power and Nifty will start its downward journey from tomorrow. Then around 3.00 p.m. came the surprise. Nifty suddenly surged to 3100-3110 and 3131 and closed the day at 3121 with a gain of 74 points. Even though Nandi earlier had expected 100 points gain and touching of Sudha Daivatham (3178)the surge in the last 30 minutes was really unexpected. So,if global cues are good Nifty may continue its upward journey and touch 3178 and 3200 levels.

Second stimulus package keep Nifty afloat

Friday closing of Nifty was 14 points higher than Thursday's closing due to the hope on central government's second stimulus package to be anounced on that day after the market close and the Asian market cues. Friday low was 3022 which was just above the Agni level at 3020. Even though after 12th December, 2008 the normal Friday pattern has been disturbed, the market closed only with nominal gains ie. less than 18 points. It is to be seen whether the stimulus package has the power to lift Nifty up more than 100 points and keep it there for a few days. On Monday (5-1-09) Agni level is at 3075 and %k of slow stochastic is 91 which is in over bought position.

Agni level at 3020 on Friday, the 2nd January,2009

Friday's Agni level is at 3020 which is just 13 points down from today's (01-01-09) closing of 3033. A normal Friday movement will see that Nifty going below Agni level and generating a sell signal.