Nifty up move expected

As F&O November series was settled on Friday the 28th November, the exceptional Friday effect is pending. Agni level for the day is 2775 just 20 points above the Friday closing. Hence Nandi feels that Nifty may move upwards a few days from Monday and may reach Pachamam (2976) or Sudha Daivatham level (3178).

Amavasi (Dark) day for Mumbai/India

To day, the 27th November,2008 was not just an Amavasi(no-moon) day, it was also an Amavasi (Dark) day for India. Both the Indian stock markets BSE & NSE remain closed due to the terrorist attack on the financial nerve centre of India, Mumbai. The target of terror was also very very sensitive to India, the Taj Mahal(that name represents India)Hotel near Gate Way of India and other 8 areas. Every Indian who had visited Mumbai once will have in memory the beautiful land mark building, the Taj Mahal Hotel, facing the Arabian sea. The unprecedented incidents and the loss of more than 101 valuable lives makes us very sad. Let us pray to the "one and only one" almighty God to bestow peace in the world.
As F&O expiry is rescheduled to tomorrow, this Friday(28th Nov 2008)will be really an Exceptional one due to the fact that this may be the only Friday on which F&O settlements were being arranged. Hence this Friday's movement of Nifty is unpredictable.

Down trend reversed on Exceptional Friday

Despite US/Asian markets down trend, on Friday (21-11-08)morning, Nifty opened firm, gained 100 points, lost all gains at 2.00 p.m and again surged up to 160 points and finally closed at 2694 with 140 points gain. That was the outcome expected by Nandi on the exceptional Friday. Now expect uptrend up to 27th November 2008,the Amavasi day. Usually it is a trend reversal day and also helps Nifty to move up. Since Nifty has started to move up from 21st it is to be seen whether the up trend will be continued or reversed. Being an exceptional Friday, on 28th also Nandi expects positive move.

Exceptional Friday

Nandi had earlier pointed out that generally on Fridays Nifty will move down wards and close in red; with two exceptions : 1. the first Friday that comes after F&O monthly settlements and 2. the Friday that comes after losses for last three/four days. Tomorrow the 21st November, 2008 comes under second category and hence Nandi hopes that there would be up move in Nifty. Let us see whether this time the hope fulfills or not.

By the way, it may be interesting to readers how Nandi had realised the above rule.
On Friday morning Nandi used to go to a temple in Trivandrum and pray to the powerful deity there. It was also observed that usually Nandi had lost money on Fridays. As there is no possibility that God will punish Nandi for trading in stock market, an analysis was done. Then it was found that Nandi always bought first and sold it later. Hence came the realisation of Friday general rule and later the exceptions.

Up move didn't sustain, further low in the anvil

Even though on 19th November, 2008 Nifty moved up at the beginning as expected, it didn't sustain. After 1.00 p.m. on accepting cues from European markets it moved down and closed lower than yesterday's at 2635 (Agni level for the day). Today opening will be a gap down as predicted by Chaitreya Sasthriji of Nifty Predictor (link already given by Nandi).

Nifty down continuously for last 5 days

Nandi hopes that today ( 19th November,2008) Nifty may not go below Agni level for the day (2634)and there will be opportunity to buy. As Nifty was down continuously for the last 5 days Nandi expects an upward move today or tomorrow.

Agni level receads and Nifty above Agni level

On 17-11-08 Nifty close was at 2800 where as Agni level for tomorrow ( 18-11-08) is 2723 only which generates a buy signal. %k of slow stochastic chart came down to 8.14 when Nifty was around 2700 level and that can be considered as a confirmation to buy. But considering the weakness in Asian markets in the opening of 18th November, 2008 Nifty may open weak and slide down wards. Therefore do not initiate buy if Nifty does not hold the Agni level at 2723.

India touches the feet of Chandra Bhagwan

Jawaharlal Nehru, the architect of modern India raised the flag of independent India in New Delhi on 15 August 1947. In his 119th birth day ie. 14th November,2008 Indian flag has been placed on the surface of moon by Chandrayaan -1. According to Nandi, India has touched the feet of Chandra Bhagwan for his blessings. Every object in the universe has spiritual body as well as physical body. Some people do not accept the existence of spiritual body and misses the essential part. Nandi observes the beneficial effects of Chandra on financial markets when he is near to Surya ie. a few days from Amavasi and the reversal of the same when he is away from Surya ie. on Purnachandra (full moon) day. Nandi believes that with the blessings of Chandra Bhagwan, India will fare better than other countries in the world in coming months.

Nifty's upmove reversed on Tuesday

In the last post (08-11-08) Nandi had written that the up move of Nifty from Friday afternoon was unanticipated and hence the up move will be a very short one. It became true when Nifty reversed (Tuesday),continued its down trend and closed at 2848 on 12th November . 13th November 2008 is a Full moon day & happily our CHANDRAYAAN -1 is doing "pradikshana" (moving around)of CHANDRA and we are proud that we could do it successfully in our First attempt itself. Being a holiday due to Guru Nanak Jayanthi we escaped from today's fall; Asian markets are down around 5 percent. It is possible that we may also see a small downward move tomorrow.

During all these days Nandi was talking about Entry and Exit in cash segment only. Now it is felt that a buy in Call Option when Nifty emerges from Agni level and switching it to Put Option when Nifty plunges in to Agni level can also be tried. Be limit it to one or two lots(50 Nos) and choose it from the most active three Calls/Puts. That way we can make use of the down/up ward move in Nifty to gain some amount. Otherwise we are just waiting Nifty to emerge from Agni level after exiting all longs. Who are not familiar with F&O segment may please stay away from these Call/Put Options. Nandi considers Cash segment as School level, Options as Pre-university level and Futures as College level. One should not go to higher levels unless he understands the lower level thoroughly.

Unanticipated up move

Even though on 5th November Nifty opened in up trend as anticipated it didn't sustain. Nifty plunged to Agni level and moved downwards and closed at 2995 on that day. Nandi hopes that the visitors of this blog exited at 3177, the Agni level for that day. Nandi did not anticipated the Friday afternoon up move, as the downward move was not deep enough as per slow stochastic figures ie. less than 20. For Monday ( 10th November ) Agni level is at 3051 and if Nifty moves beyond that point it is a buy. But Nandi feels that this up move may be a very short one.

Nifty to move up at least 35 points to escape Agni level

Today(4th November,2008) Nifty closed at 3142, below the Agni level at 3177. Hence Nifty should move up at least 35 points to escape from the Agni level. Considering the afternoon surge and the probability of its continuance tomorrow, 35 points gain will not be a problem. But, be on guard to exit all longs when Nifty touches Agni level in coming days.

Average loss of all NSE stocks at 72.25 percent !!!

Retail investors who had held all his stocks through out the crash on the belief that it will go up once he sell it, has lost severely. On an analysis, Nandi has found that from Jan 8, 2008 closing to Oct 27,2008 low, average loss of all NSE stocks taken together was 72.25 percent. A good number of stocks even lost in the range of 85-95 percent. In the history of Dow Jones loss was maximum at 89.2 percent in 1929-32. The bear market lasted for four and half years during 1937-42 and six months in 1962. All these figures highlights the importance of strict application of STOP LOSS, to which retail investors are mostly reluctant. During this year's crash most retail investors might have suffered heavy losses and might be thinking that he should have exited long ago instead of holding it tightly. Even now, exiting all longs when Nifty touches Agni level will reduce the loss. For that one should limit the number of stocks being traded and avoid stocks that hit lower circuit very frequently.